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Financial Is property going to drop?, General property price discussion

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property101
post Feb 11 2011, 07:34 PM

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QUOTE(UFO-ET @ Feb 11 2011, 06:58 PM)
DD vs SS, over supply will cause price to drop, rental will drop too, just imagine, for instance, if MK price drop 30% and rental increase 20%, do you think anyone would be blurr blurr paying high rental? very simple if installment lower than rental, sure buy
demand over supply not necessary will drop. when demand over supply + people losing holding power (like a major economic crisis), then more likely will drop. the aunty uncle who rushed into BBB has a lot of holding power. people who buy within their mean also have holding power. not every buyer stretch themselves till too thin. especially asian who have good saving habit compare to US

price drop rental not necessary will drop. just like when property price increase rental not necessary increase.

even sometimes when installment is lower than rental, not everyone will buy. many people may not afford to pay the downpayment, many people may not able to get a loan
property101
post Feb 13 2011, 09:43 AM

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QUOTE(TheDoer @ Feb 13 2011, 03:35 AM)
Yes, but you said, he had owned property even before completing his uni. So don't tell me he bought it from selling newspapers and doing odd jobs?
Unless he was doing business. Now this is a matter of wits and luck.  How many people can actually be like this person?

If it was a matter of hardwork, how many people (including those who already owns property) IS this person?
think out of the box, dont limit the view on how the world should be solely base on your own knowledge and experience wink.gif
property101
post Feb 13 2011, 11:21 PM

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QUOTE(Pai @ Feb 13 2011, 09:48 PM)
Chief, the example makes sense when there arent any life-boats or cheap housing anymore. As previously mentioned, there r cheap housing available if one is not choosy. No one forces anyone to pay half a mil for a new DSL when a 10 years old DSL within the same vicinity is at least 40% cheaper. Our prop price arent anywhere near HK, SG, China etc...........yet still ppl complaint?

Sometimes I felt ppl complaint as they felt that they r entitled for cheap housing. They somehow think gov, dev, and all prop buyers must ensure that the market adhere's to their own requirements. So instead of adjusting to the world, they want the whole world to adjust to their needs and wants................. and these r the same bunch who could have afford to buy properties for own stay 2 years ago but simply hold back as they are BETTING against the market................. only to see market has gone complete opposite against their bet.............. sweat.gif
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a lot of people are still living in yesterday when the property price was cheaper. they expect the yesterday price, in today's reality.

imho, it's not that they do not know today's reality, they simply do not acknowledge and do not accept it, they rather complain because it is always easier to join the complaining mastermind group, than painfully accepting the reality.

for most people, it is hard to live in the new reality because their salary increment never beats the inflation (especially property), by accepting today's reality, it basically tell them that they have to downgrade their desired lifestyle such as the type of property they will be staying in. this group of people have no one to blame because they choose to stay in their comfort zone. even when there is an opportunity for them, they are always saying: "wait...lets see how it goes first..."

there is another group of people who is willing to walk the tough journey to increase the amount money they make. these people afford their properties, one after another.
property101
post Feb 15 2011, 08:30 AM

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QUOTE(TheDoer @ Feb 15 2011, 01:02 AM)
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Think again, people are not just complaining because they withheld and didn't buy 2-3 years back. Imagine if this is a fresh grad we are talking about, how do you explain this to him? "Son, you have to either work twice as hard as the rest of us, or come from a well to do family."

It's true, this is a dog eat dog world, I do not deny that, sometimes we have to suck it up and take it. But then again if everybody thought of the next person a little more.  The world will be a better place.

If we were on the titanic, and the ship was sinking, Yes, the guy who was the most aggressive and pushed his way through the crowd will find a lifeboat first, and the timid one only has himself to blame. However, if we had all walked in an orderly fashion, perhaps all of us could have survived.
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Interesting. If we were to live in an ideal world, everyone will be happy. Unfortunately we are not robot, we dont walk in an "orderly fashion". we are human. Some of us have a big heart like yourself to care about the others while some will exploit every advantage to benefit themselves and only themselves.

In reality, the person who doesn't get a boat will either has to immediately change his mindset to be aggressive or die in the ocean. Again, unfortunately, one is very unlikely to have a change of mindset in a short period of time without any stimulant . A change of mindset will only come when they are slapped hard by the cold reality. Like Pai has mentioned, I too believe everyone who are generally successful in life usually gone through certain level of hardship. I don't believe success by chance. Even if it happens, the success will not be sustainable. How a person does anything is how a person does everything. If the person cannot manage a basic human need (accommodation), I don't reckon this person is getting too well in life in general. With this property hike, if it can wake them up from their comfort zone, increase the number of "aggressive" people in our country.....

QUOTE(UFO-ET @ Feb 15 2011, 02:51 AM)
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Until today, we Malaysian still consider an average new double storey link or  Condo / service apt at least 1500sf (in average prime location) is considered an ideal "home" for a family, anything below than that spec is miserable, I just came back fr Taiwan, knowing that a very successful film star is staying in a shop apartment and most of them are like that..I make a quick survey, majority think that owning at least a 25 tsubo (890sf) size  apartment is the most ideal home and considered quite successful (1 tsubo = 35.6 sq ft), middle upper class group never think or dream of owning a landed property in the Taipei City, only those multi millionaire "businessman" has the privilege to live in. 20-30 years back they are like us, complaining the landed property was too expensive.
...
Didn't people always say about learn from history? Well in this case, we are not learning from our history, we are learning from others' history, could be equally valuable. When you see something coming, you can either find a nice seat to watch the show or being part of the show wink.gif


Added on February 15, 2011, 9:51 amYesterday, I was talking to a colleague who owns more than 20 residential properties and number of commercial units. I guess he obviously know what he is doing. When I asked him about what he thinks about property bubble, his response was not gonna happen. When everything is increasing, why property price should drop? Of course what he said is a little over generalized, and there might be few exception, but for the majority of people who are looking at apartment / condo / studio / DLS etc are not going to be much affected.

This post has been edited by property101: Feb 15 2011, 09:51 AM
property101
post Feb 15 2011, 03:53 PM

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QUOTE(mikro @ Feb 15 2011, 02:24 PM)
1)Will increasing young working population the answer to sustainable house price?

I realize the pool of young graduate is higher than when I was entering college and more and more young people can be seen in shopping mall on the weekend until it so pack that I rather stay at home.

During 2005 the same shopping mall is not as pack and crowded as it is now.

My theory is that although the house price have increase, but the price increase is with tandem with the demand in Malaysia economy.

Agree. Population has increased, naturally property price also increase where there is no enough supply. Anyone has the figure of how much of population increase vs number of new development?

2) On a macro point of view, the house price have only appreciated 3.3% around the country which is true, the house price in klang valley had shoot up like rocket, which is also true. But on the micro side, not all the house in klang valley has shoot up 30%-50% in just a year, it's is very confine and specific to hotpots such as  BU areas wherest Kajang, Shah Alam has not seen much appreciation like in BU and Mutiara Area which come to my conclusion that property high price is segmented and not as wide spread as perceive, so that area like BU and Mutiara maybe have excess speculation that cause the price to increase rapidly.
FYI, new launches in Kajang and Shah Alam also no longer that "affordable".  brows.gif

3) But that also other problem, if those young graduate (Lots and Lots of them) few years down the road opt to buy a house with bank loan, the price of house is also not going to drop, because why sell lower when somebody will buy it?

House price boom is happening in Singapore as well, which explain the situation is not confine to Malaysia.

Even if they cant buy, they will and have to rent. This too make property market sustain

4) And there is also factor of Holding power, those people who hold number of property are cash rich uncle auntie which unlike previously 97-98 crisis they have little cash or over leverage, these people have high holding power which reduce the selling pressure on housing property, and with limited selling pressure, the downside will be limited.

Uncle story is queue up for new launches overnight. Buy 3 units. Sell 2 upon completion. Your unit is free!
But right now everyone is talking about leverage is double sided edge. I believe general public have more awareness.


Property price generally will come up and down like a cycle and the only way I can think of falling property price is in a recession and even the downside is limited to 10-30%. To seeing a property price crash of magnitude of 50% -70% is expecting a political unrest that send everyone panic to leave the country.

Property market in Malaysia is highly segmented market with high rise (super luxury, luxury, mid and low cost), Landed (terrace, Semi-D, Bungalow) and Landed can be segmentise by G&G and non G&G and the whole high rise landed  can be further  segmented with location and Neighborhood and area with each specifics segment experiencing it individual boom, burst cycle, varies in growth rate and price appreciation and even when in down turn, each segment will react differently.

Agree. Property market is such a general term, if people would want to predict the market, predict the segmented market rather than on overall

The best example is to look at  Mount Kiara high rise, it an segment on it own.
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property101
post Feb 20 2011, 01:01 PM

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QUOTE(epie @ Feb 20 2011, 12:06 PM)
property price hike up depends on several factors
Kinrara for example bcos of the surroundings nearby
lots of amenities, roads, ongoing lrt extension etc
and if u look clearly...the location is becoming strategic nowadays

compare to bukit beruntung which the price wont go anywhere
u might get the idea
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back to square one, location location location

and...

whats the plan for future in that location

and...

whether people like the plan or not...

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