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Financial Is property going to drop?, General property price discussion

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sulifeisgreat
post Oct 20 2010, 11:24 AM

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who is able to buy properties with such high downpayments? the rich, average or poor?
http://www.nuwireinvestor.com/articles/chi...rket-56189.aspx

I like the statement
"Most of the owners of these high end properties have “holding power” and will not be tempted to sell their properties at substantial losses"
http://www.kiararealty.com.my/article_acco..._mont_kiara.asp

"tendency for affluent investors to hedge their wealth in prime real estate when there is a flight to quality, and these investors having strong holding power" & "Mr Ho believes the sustainability of the property market will hinge largely on the stockmarket performance given the correlation between the two"
http://www.presidiopenthouse.com/realestat...manager/kl.html

life is never fair & suggest check on the auction advertisements to find those flippers tat is killed laugh.gif
the average & poor can only look on & hope for change, viva revolution! brows.gif venezuela here we cum

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PUPUMAMA
post Oct 20 2010, 02:12 PM

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I don't think property in KV will drop, as we know all the new launch is very pricy with low entry. There's still many used property that is affordable. I do think that whoever are hoping decrease property price are the one who is having negative thought about our country economy and hope the worst will come in our life and our economy is like Indonesia, Vietnam etc. The property there is cheap and the inflation are low. Don't compare with those develop country such as US/Japan/HK, we are not there yet. Just try to compare with Singapore. Yes, we have more land then Singapore, you can still choose to live at bukit beruntung. Just my point of view.
all blacks
post Oct 20 2010, 03:55 PM

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QUOTE(PrettyLaidback @ Oct 20 2010, 09:46 AM)
Penang properties are all overpriced, normal workers there cannot afford to buy an apartment also.
*
Nt yet overpriced compare to Klang Valley... Penang land is very limited so I wont b surprise if the price increases... Im only talking about Island, Butterworth is still dirt cheap! If u r lookin at all the prime area's then its expensive example Gurney, waterfalls/botanical garden area, Quensbay, Bukit Jambul hills and few other prime area's too.. Try lookin at batu maung, bayan lepas, I stil think its affordable.. But it comes down to, whats ur expectation n wats ur budget?


Added on October 20, 2010, 3:57 pm
QUOTE(PUPUMAMA @ Oct 20 2010, 02:12 PM)
I don't think property in KV will drop, as we know all the new launch is very pricy with low entry. There's still many used property that is affordable. I do think that whoever are hoping decrease property price are the one who is having negative thought about our country economy and hope the worst will come in our life and our economy is like Indonesia, Vietnam etc. The property there is cheap and the inflation are low. Don't compare with those develop country such as US/Japan/HK, we are not there yet. Just try to compare with Singapore. Yes, we have more land then Singapore, you can still choose to live at bukit beruntung. Just my point of view.
*
Even used property prices are quite high, try juz looking at condo's in PJ area wic is less then 5 years, the price is almost the same or more then the new launches! doh.gif N price drop unsure.gif ! Im nt sure if its on the way or wil nvr come.. The so called "demand" is always around the corner whenever there is a new launch! sad.gif

This post has been edited by all blacks: Oct 20 2010, 03:58 PM
kw_cheah
post Oct 20 2010, 04:02 PM

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Does the price of properties sector increase in the following ways:
1) High end properties
2) Middle end properties
3) then only follow by low end properties?

If yes, KL properties sector is which step?
If no, what is the pattern like?
cybermaster98
post Oct 20 2010, 04:10 PM

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QUOTE(kw_cheah @ Oct 20 2010, 04:02 PM)
Does the price of properties sector increase in  the following ways:
1) High end properties
2) Middle end properties
3) then only follow by low end properties?

If yes, KL properties sector is which step?
If no, what is the pattern like?
*
Appreciation of value is dependent on the entry price for that area. For example, if the market prices in that area is 300 psf and a new development comes in at 400psf, then the rate of appreciation will be much slower for that new development. But for existing developments, if there are many new developments going for 400 psf, then the original market price jumps to 400psf or more.

So before purchasing any property, u should always check the rate of increase in that area. U also need to survey the prices in the surrounding areas as this will have an impact in your area. Look at TTDI KL. The prices here keep going up because of newer developments in the surrounding areas of Kota Damansara and Mutiara Damansara at equally high prices.

Right now in KL, most of the medium end properties are rising much faster than high end properties. Developers are also launching new phases at high end prices to take advantage of this price increase.
sulifeisgreat
post Oct 20 2010, 05:14 PM

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The last three property booms peaked in 1973, 1985, 1997. In our view, we are in the early stages of the next boom yawn.gif
http://www.freesubmitwebsiteurl.net/busine...w.aiqglobal.com

do u consider yr 2008 msia encounter mild recession? if yes, then next phase could be 2013-2018 wink.gif
http://eprints.utm.my/1311/1/norhaya-REER_SEMINAR.pdf

if no, we should be due for one anytime laugh.gif this never ending argument will only have 1 conclusion
the market shall decide - good luck doomers & gloomers http://www.mip.org.my/forms/land1.pdf

Onemorething
post Oct 20 2010, 07:10 PM

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QUOTE(sulifeisgreat @ Oct 20 2010, 05:14 PM)
The last three property booms peaked in 1973, 1985, 1997. In our view, we are in the early stages of the next boom  yawn.gif
http://www.freesubmitwebsiteurl.net/busine...w.aiqglobal.com

do u consider yr 2008 msia encounter mild recession? if yes, then next phase could be 2013-2018  wink.gif 
http://eprints.utm.my/1311/1/norhaya-REER_SEMINAR.pdf

if no, we should be due for one anytime  laugh.gif  this never ending argument will only have 1 conclusion
the market shall decide - good luck doomers & gloomers  http://www.mip.org.my/forms/land1.pdf
*
Hmmm, if the booms peaked every 12 years then 2009 should have been the top. There was a mild correction after the financial crisis which if the free markets would have been able to work the correction would have fully been realized. In essence with money printing (QE) on a global scale a false bottom concludes no correction was allowed to occur.

This along with unaffordability and talk about bubbles now are more maintream along with governments stepping in to secure positions.

Mid Terms USA, huge Sovereign Debts and currency debasement matched with trade wars is going to finally take the air out starting Nov 3rd ....correction which wasnt allowed, will happen but to what pace is unknown!
lucerne
post Oct 20 2010, 09:52 PM

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interesting video re bubble. quite long video, 46min.


http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4ECi6WJpbzE
cranx
post Oct 21 2010, 12:36 AM

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QUOTE(Onemorething @ Oct 20 2010, 07:10 PM)
Hmmm, if the booms peaked every 12 years then 2009 should have been the top.  There was a mild correction after the financial crisis which if the free markets would have been able to work the correction would have fully been realized.  In essence with money printing (QE) on a global scale a false bottom concludes no correction was allowed to occur.

This along with unaffordability and talk about bubbles now are more maintream along with governments stepping in to secure positions.

Mid Terms USA, huge Sovereign Debts and currency debasement matched with trade wars is going to finally take the air out starting Nov 3rd ....correction which wasnt allowed, will happen but to what pace is unknown!
*
Could you please share your insights on impact of government policy:

100% loan for below 220k properties / low income group below RM3000 per month.
first time buyer 50% stamp duty off for properties below RM350k.
property101
post Oct 21 2010, 09:56 AM

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my view on: 100% loan for below 220k properties - it is a policy that appears to be helping the lower income group but if we dig deeper, this doesn't do anything helpful

if a person is not able to save up a minimum 10% for the down payment, it is very obvious that the person is not financially ready to commit to a mortgage. gov is optimistically hoping that the person who bought a property at 100% would amazingly come out with extra RM600 - RM1000 for monthly installment. on the other hand, if a person who is able to generate extra income of RM600 - RM1000 at will (through MLM, freelance, etc) that person would not belong to income below RM3000 per month.

secondly, the biggest problem that the lower income group facing right now is NOT because they cannot come out with the 10% down payment. the problem is the affordable units are sold before they can take a move. a lot of insiders, group purchaser, through relationship, aunty uncle who are usually way richer than the lower income group have grabbed the affordable units before the lower income group can make a move.
i'm referring to new launches here, because for MOST people the first property that they want to buy, they do desire it to be a new one, rather than getting it from sub-sales.

if the gov insists this is a very helpful move, i can only see that it works in sub sales market which the first time home purchaser is very reluctant to go in.
wwwcomment
post Oct 21 2010, 10:47 AM

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QUOTE(property101 @ Oct 21 2010, 09:56 AM)
my view on: 100% loan for below 220k properties - it is a policy that appears to be helping the lower income group but if we dig deeper, this doesn't do anything helpful

if a person is not able to save up a minimum 10% for the down payment, it is very obvious that the person is not financially ready to commit to a mortgage. gov is optimistically hoping that the person who bought a property at 100% would amazingly come out with extra RM600 - RM1000 for monthly installment. on the other hand, if a person who is able to generate extra income of RM600 - RM1000 at will (through MLM, freelance, etc) that person would not belong to income below RM3000 per month.

secondly, the biggest problem that the lower income group facing right now is NOT because they cannot come out with the 10% down payment. the problem is the affordable units are sold before they can take a move. a lot of insiders, group purchaser, through relationship, aunty uncle who are usually way richer than the lower income group have grabbed the affordable units before the lower income group can make a move.
i'm referring to new launches here, because for MOST people the first property that they want to buy, they do desire it to be a new one, rather than getting it from sub-sales.

if the gov insists this is a very helpful move, i can only see that it works in sub sales market which the first time home purchaser is very reluctant to go in.
*
good comment
Apscen
post Oct 21 2010, 10:49 AM

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QUOTE(property101 @ Oct 21 2010, 09:56 AM)
my view on: 100% loan for below 220k properties - it is a policy that appears to be helping the lower income group but if we dig deeper, this doesn't do anything helpful

if a person is not able to save up a minimum 10% for the down payment, it is very obvious that the person is not financially ready to commit to a mortgage. gov is optimistically hoping that the person who bought a property at 100% would amazingly come out with extra RM600 - RM1000 for monthly installment. on the other hand, if a person who is able to generate extra income of RM600 - RM1000 at will (through MLM, freelance, etc) that person would not belong to income below RM3000 per month.

secondly, the biggest problem that the lower income group facing right now is NOT because they cannot come out with the 10% down payment. the problem is the affordable units are sold before they can take a move. a lot of insiders, group purchaser, through relationship, aunty uncle who are usually way richer than the lower income group have grabbed the affordable units before the lower income group can make a move.
i'm referring to new launches here, because for MOST people the first property that they want to buy, they do desire it to be a new one, rather than getting it from sub-sales.

if the gov insists this is a very helpful move, i can only see that it works in sub sales market which the first time home purchaser is very reluctant to go in.
*
very much agreed, the gov could contribute to the bubble by allow bank to giving out too much subprime loan to ppls which are not afford to pay, when this amount become so huge, there is when the default rate reach peak, what happen when the default rate is high? needless to explain. good job Gov!

PUPUMAMA
post Oct 21 2010, 10:56 AM

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I agree that will be a never ending argument on this topic.
Investors will be hoping on never ending price hike and those lower income category will hope on property bubble.
There are increasing number of expatriate who are working and living in KV and for us "Malaysian" we all want to own our 1st home.
With the current price hike, many of us is unable to have our dream house that's why our government have implemented 100% loan for properties below 220k.
There are still demand on properties, properties price will go down if there will be no demand and investors are on selling mode.
At current BBB mode I don't see sign of property bubble.
zeese
post Oct 21 2010, 11:28 AM

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QUOTE(property101 @ Oct 21 2010, 09:56 AM)
if a person is not able to save up a minimum 10% for the down payment, it is very obvious that the person is not financially ready to commit to a mortgage. gov is optimistically hoping that the person who bought a property at 100% would amazingly come out with extra RM600 - RM1000 for monthly installment.
*
I really disagree with this statements. If it is not because of 10% downpayment + other fees, I would have bought my first house much earlier by now. In fact, installment is never a problem for many people, even for those who just started working.

Saving money is not easy especially low income group, but finding a way to allocate money for something is a lot easier. If gov doesn't help this group, by the time they've enough saving, all the properties has already been grabbed by investors, and as the price increase, deposit also increase or they have to buy properties further away from work place.
sulifeisgreat
post Oct 21 2010, 12:25 PM

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yes, history likes to repeat itself, coz it needs about a decade to breed new untried, untested, virgin suckers (newbies who have no idea & did not research on how to utilise their funds) laugh.gif

How Interest Rates Affect The Stock Market
http://www.investopedia.com/articles/06/in...fectsmarket.asp

the stock market crash and the subsequent Depression were actually caused by tight monetary policies
http://useconomy.about.com/od/grossdomesti..._Depression.htm

Victory over inflation came at a cost in terms of unemployment, but the outcome was unmistakable.
http://www.econreview.com/events/volker1982b.htm

which smart arse govt wants to cause a worldwide depression? brows.gif
got so much money circulating around & those who work hard or think smart can access it moneyflies.gif
where would u put the money if u got ur hands on it? fd? hmm...wonder y properties prices & etc go up hmm.gif

as usual, some of those free loaders & hoping for handouts will be cursing left, right & centre doh.gif
but there r oso pessimist, who keeps their stash in fd & await the HUGE crash, good luck beating inflation nod.gif

QUOTE(PUPUMAMA @ Oct 21 2010, 10:56 AM)
I agree that will be a never ending argument on this topic.
Investors will be hoping on never ending price hike and those lower income category will hope on property bubble.
There are increasing number of expatriate who are working and living in KV and for us "Malaysian" we all want to own our 1st home.
With the current price hike, many of us is unable to have our dream house that's why our government have implemented 100% loan for properties below 220k.
There are still demand on properties, properties price will go down if there will be no demand and investors are on selling mode.
At current BBB mode I don't see sign of property bubble.
*
wwwcomment
post Oct 21 2010, 01:57 PM

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QUOTE(zeese @ Oct 21 2010, 11:28 AM)
I really disagree with this statements.  If it is not because of 10% downpayment + other fees, I would have bought my first house much earlier by now. In fact, installment is never a problem for many people, even for those who just started working.

Saving money is not easy especially low income group, but finding a way to allocate money for something is a lot easier.  If gov doesn't help this group, by the time they've enough saving, all the properties has already been grabbed by investors, and as the price increase, deposit also increase or they have to buy properties further away from work place.
*
you really think those lower cost houses will not be sapu by those richer fella or insider?
PUPUMAMA
post Oct 21 2010, 02:42 PM

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I think the best way is get yourself a decent property that you can afford and not to wait for the bubble. Can you imagine if the price are still going up 6% p.a for the next 3-5 years? Material cost up, labor, land etc.

Why wait for the price drop if you can have it now? Try to imagine, if really property price drop in the next 3 years, when you purchase a new house, you still need to wait atleast another 2 years completion.

We all have different thoughts, I just share my thoughts.
blasto
post Oct 21 2010, 03:57 PM

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QUOTE(wwwcomment @ Oct 21 2010, 01:57 PM)
you really think those lower cost houses will not be sapu by those richer fella or insider?
*
fresh grads, feldas, gservant, property gurus...lobg Q
more ppl buy more ppl pay tax, send more ppl outerspace, more tower, more bridge..more record.
we are heading hign income country then bank interest rises.




cloudwan0
post Oct 21 2010, 05:21 PM

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QUOTE(blasto @ Oct 21 2010, 03:57 PM)
fresh grads, feldas, gservant, property gurus...lobg Q
more ppl buy more ppl pay tax, send more ppl outerspace, more tower, more bridge..more record.
we are heading hign income country then bank interest rises.
*
Malaysia has been caught in the middle-income trap,
there still need to be alot of changes to heading high income country, else Malaysia will be always in middle income country.
PUPUMAMA
post Oct 21 2010, 10:23 PM

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BTimes

'Long way to property bubble in Malaysia'


2010/10/21


SHAH ALAM: There is still a long way to reach property bubble in Malaysia, says Housing and Local Government Minister Datuk Wira Chor Chee Heung.

According to the Housing Index for the last 10 years, prices of houses have moved about 37 per cent while in countries like Singapore and Hong Kong, property prices shot passed 35 per cent last year, he said.

He said property prices in Malaysia started to rise since 2008 due to land cost, building materials and vibrancy of the economy as a result of the initiatives and measures taken by the federal government.

"This is also as a result of foreign companies coming into this country to invest in properties. Because of the aggressive policies by the government, a lot of foreign companies set up bases in this country and bought properties for their senior staff and executives," he said when launching Setia City, an integrated green commercial hub in Shah Alam to be developed by SP Setia Bhd.

Chor, however, said it did not mean ordinary people who just joined the workforce are not able to buy houses.

"If you go further up a bit, 10km away from the KL City Centre, you are still able to find a reasonably-priced house. "If you say you can't find houses in the Klang Valley within the RM350,000 range, I will not believe you, but you have to travel a bit further out of the city centre.

"In central Kuala Lumpur, you can't find houses within the range of RM150,000 to RM300,000. Last year and this year, the most sought-after properties are in the range of RM150,000 to RM180,000.

"In central Kuala Lumpur, you can't find houses within the range of RM150,000 to RM300,000.

"This is the result of government efforts to transform Kuala Lumpur into a bustling city. If you find a house at RM200,000 within the Kuala Lumpur City, this means our economy is in bad shape," he said.

Chor said the government was concerned of this and that was why incentives were provided for in the 2011 Budget to assist low-income earners and young people who just joined the workforce to buy houses.

The minister, however, said the government would not control property prices as Malaysia was a free economy.

"The government will intervene if certain things happen that will bring disaster to the economy and the people," he said.
Chor said people have been buying houses since 2008 and he did not deny that there could be some speculation.

"There is also a sudden drop in the number of houses to be built last year and this showed developers are also studying the market situation," he said.

SP Setia president and chief executive officer Tan Sri Liew Kee Sin said there was no where to build houses within the RM350,000 price range except in Johor where land was cheaper.

"Land cost is a factor of the end-product," he said, adding that a large portion of SP Setia's projects were within the price range of RM400,000 to RM1 million. -- Bernama


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