QUOTE(AdamG1981 @ Sep 5 2008, 10:01 PM)
But euro to become toilet paper? Of course tissue paper better than toilet paper right???
Honestly, i think the FOREX market is taking into account that US economic will recover first. In the long run, we'll still looking into fundamentals of the economy.
I think ECB is smart in a sense that they are not propping up a stronger euro. Trichet only said the world wants a stronger dollar.
Yes Adam, USD is suck but it is not as suck as Euro hence Eur/Usd down trend. The euro hit to the point as a top I
Called many hours b4 NFP. Thus I shorted EU @ 4343 and will be holding it for while and see what next week will do.
I am well aware of what that Trichet said. He has gave up his hawkish statement which is why i am bearish to Euro. As bearish as Euro can be but we wont see a Rapid fall as last month anymore. the Euro is approching the 1.3x, that is where USD was b4 Subprime Crisis. When Euro reach there I probably start thinking about changing my bear bias to Neutral. I think the fair value of euro should be around 1.32-1.36
As for what u said the Strong USD will hurt USA, I think there is a plus and minus on this. First, we see a Strong USD is bad for USA recovery. Second Strong USD has help USD to fight against inflation, with oil down, USD up, I think the inflation in USA will be somewhat a lot cooler than b4. But the Strong USD will definitely hurt the USD. I think u will see more USA red report this month.
This post has been edited by billytong: Sep 6 2008, 02:28 PM