Jun 24 2008, 09:03 PM
QUOTE(dreams_achiever @ Jun 24 2008, 08:42 PM)
Yup, me also agreed.
Although Mahathir managed Malaysia in some dictator ways, at least Mahathir managed to take Malaysia out from Asian crisis '97 and bring prosper to Malaysis during his tenure as PM.
But compared Abdullah, i can't see his strength managing Malaysia. He is too weak and the most i fed up with him is because of his flip-flop management. Better he step down and give to some one more capable.
Anyway back to topic, i think market is heading to recession time. Bear market will soon emerged when more bad news coming out. Some analysts predict recession could come in early next year.
But market is unpredictable, any possibilities could happen.
If you compared to March this year, when almost everyone of us(maybe to me) think market will collapse due to credit crunch but most of banks announced good results and market reversed, rally for 1++month until May 2008.
For cautious purpose, it is better to invest small portion only and keep cash for raining days if recession does come.
Bear is already in the market and sitting besides everyone quietly until most people don't notice. (everyday price drop 5 cents, 10 cents until when one starts to realise then already with paper loss of 20-30%. Although Mahathir managed Malaysia in some dictator ways, at least Mahathir managed to take Malaysia out from Asian crisis '97 and bring prosper to Malaysis during his tenure as PM.
But compared Abdullah, i can't see his strength managing Malaysia. He is too weak and the most i fed up with him is because of his flip-flop management. Better he step down and give to some one more capable.
Anyway back to topic, i think market is heading to recession time. Bear market will soon emerged when more bad news coming out. Some analysts predict recession could come in early next year.
But market is unpredictable, any possibilities could happen.
If you compared to March this year, when almost everyone of us(maybe to me) think market will collapse due to credit crunch but most of banks announced good results and market reversed, rally for 1++month until May 2008.
For cautious purpose, it is better to invest small portion only and keep cash for raining days if recession does come.
Yes, in this kind of market condition, don't need rush to buy, slowly take tiny piece by piece as market won't suddenly turn into bull run one, most of the upside is due to technical rebound recently.
Typical eg would be Genting (because monitor it mah), from 6.50 down to 6.00 then bounce off to 6.20, then slowly dropped again to 5.70 then bounced to 6.20, then continue to go down to around 5.50, then bounced a bit to 5.70. Then dropped again to 5.20 then bounced again to 5.60. You can see the pattern of lower and lower trend. So want to buy, take piece by piece, don't need take it one or two shot as it is in down trend, nobody knows when is the bottom.
Yup, current gov decision is quite flip-flop until nobody knows what they want to do or plan to do, or no plan at all, which won't be good for the stock market. Stock market doesn't like uncertainty, as businesses need certainty of policy for future planning and expansion.
For comparison with 1997, current bear market is just about 20%-25% of the severity of 1997 crash. So if one predict the market will be as bad as 1997, then still long way to go. Although economy might get into recession or some trouble ahead, the current situation and problems still far from matching 1997 condition. But on US banking side, different story, they are facing multi-decade financial crisis which some of the banks shares have dropped as much as 60-70%.
Typically well known name like Citigroup from 50-60 to now around 18. <-- this (the severity of drop) quite matching the severity of Asian 1997 crisis time.This post has been edited by cherroy: Jun 24 2008, 09:05 PM
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