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 MayBank shareholder Group

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[Ancient]-XinG-
post Jul 26 2019, 01:05 PM

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QUOTE(Jordy @ Jul 26 2019, 12:26 PM)
Any decisions out from the FOMC meeting will not affect of our economy as we are independent. If there is any movement in our stock market due to their decisions, it will just be a short-term reaction to the movement in NYSE. While generally traders could accept a small cut in interest rate, but a bigger than expected cut would send jitters into the financial markets. Again, any interest rate movement in US will not affect the profitability of our local banks in a big way. We are more concerned about our own OPR which will have direct effect on the margin of our banks.
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Hmm I thought BNM movement always related to fed? As well as other central bank? Looks like I mistakenly thought.
FutureBuilder
post Jul 26 2019, 01:39 PM

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Is there anyone here building passive income through Maybank dividend using dollar cost averaging method? Mind sharing your strategy? biggrin.gif
Cubalagi
post Jul 26 2019, 02:00 PM

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QUOTE(Jordy @ Jul 26 2019, 09:45 AM)
I believe it is the common fear that BNM would be cutting interest rates further down. All banks were affected. We'll just have to wait for BNM's announcement to calm the market.
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That will be in mid Sept..

Personally, Im not too concerned about interest rate. A one off 25 bp cut by Fed shouldn't change BNM position, coz BNM already did that earlier. So we are back to "neutral" gear. Only if Fed suprise by a 50bp cut, then hv to re-evaluate.

Im a bit more concerned with what's inside Maybank books tho.. 1Q 2019 wasn't good profit wise, due ro higher impairments. 2nd Q could be worse, and this may impact the amount of interim dividend. That's why I'm looking forward to end of this month for the results.

But investing is about looking forward, n I'm generally more confident about 2H2019 for Malaysia and Asean economy. When that gets better, Maybank should perform better.




bmwcaddy
post Jul 26 2019, 02:12 PM

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Where do you all get firsthand bnm rates update?
Cubalagi
post Jul 26 2019, 02:16 PM

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QUOTE(FutureBuilder @ Jul 26 2019, 01:39 PM)
Is there anyone here building passive income through Maybank dividend using dollar cost averaging method? Mind sharing your strategy? biggrin.gif
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By DCA, I assume u mean buying a fixed amount in a fixed schedule (monthly, quarterly etc), irrespective of valuations and market conditions?

Then no, I don't do that. Not for single stocks..I actually think it's dangerous. Even for blue chip stocks like Maybank.

Cubalagi
post Jul 26 2019, 02:30 PM

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QUOTE(bmwcaddy @ Jul 26 2019, 02:12 PM)
Where do you all get firsthand bnm rates update?
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BNM interest rate is decided at their MPC meetings, which is every 2 months. The next one is scheduled on 12 Sept.

http://www.bnm.gov.my/index.php?ch=mone&pg=mone_mpc

However, even before that, there will noise, as economists try to predict what BNM will decide. The Treasury bond market will also reflect the markets view on what BNM is expected to do. Rate cut means Treasuries will go up.. Rate hike, Treasuries go down. So the Treasury market will start to move first on expectations.

Historically, BNM is not a very aggressive central bank. I think they tend to prefer stable interest rate.





zero47 P
post Jul 26 2019, 03:30 PM

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QUOTE(Cubalagi @ Jul 26 2019, 02:30 PM)
Historically, BNM is not a very aggressive central bank. I think they tend to prefer stable interest rate.
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We're still in a sweet spot economy wise - good growth, benign inflation. ECRL resumption should give the economy a near term jolt over the next few years.

It may also be decided to let MYR strengthen a little too by holding rates, something to show for MoF's 'astute management and fiscal prudence', reduce potential trade frictions and make high-tech capital goods import cheaper.

The strongest (dubious) argument for rate cut is maybe to help more people own their own homes.

Just for fun, my prediction is Maybank's next Q is -5% EPS - last year was a very good year so relatively, results will be 'bad'. I'm assuming 55 sen divvy this year.
cherroy
post Jul 26 2019, 03:51 PM

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QUOTE(Jordy @ Jul 26 2019, 12:26 PM)
Any decisions out from the FOMC meeting will not affect of our economy as we are independent. If there is any movement in our stock market due to their decisions, it will just be a short-term reaction to the movement in NYSE. While generally traders could accept a small cut in interest rate, but a bigger than expected cut would send jitters into the financial markets. Again, any interest rate movement in US will not affect the profitability of our local banks in a big way. We are more concerned about our own OPR which will have direct effect on the margin of our banks.
*
Maybank's earning has diversified into SEA region, particularly in Sg as well, it is not solely a domestic bank.
In fact a portion of profit is coming from regional bank businesses.

NIM is not solely affected by OPR as well. If loan growth figure is stagnant, while market is flushed with liquidity (due to worldwide interest rate cut, and QE), it can have an effect on NIM due to competition within.

Short term wise, it is on down trend mode, as little positive factors around, but long term wise, it is still a good yield play.




zero47 P
post Jul 26 2019, 03:57 PM

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SG is going to be a problem this Q - MSL actually posted a quarterly loss last Q driven by Hyflux.

MSL is largely a corporate lender, and SG is going into recession... On the bright side, looks like no more S$3 to RM1.


ahwai
post Jul 26 2019, 04:27 PM

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Maybank @ 8.75 good buy?

Jordy
post Jul 26 2019, 04:55 PM

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QUOTE(Ancient-XinG- @ Jul 26 2019, 01:05 PM)
Hmm I thought BNM movement always related to fed? As well as other central bank? Looks like I mistakenly thought.
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BNM doesn't necessarily have to follow Fed's moves. We have our own domestic consumption rate, household debt levels, unemployment rates and inflationary pressure, etc as our own economic markers. But as what Cherroy has mentioned above, liquidity in the market could increase due to the lowered cost of borrowing. This could have a little pressure on our margin.

QUOTE(FutureBuilder @ Jul 26 2019, 01:39 PM)
Is there anyone here building passive income through Maybank dividend using dollar cost averaging method? Mind sharing your strategy? biggrin.gif
*
It is not cost effective to do DCA for stocks due to the high cost of investment, unless you can DCA with a big amount every month. We have the minimum brokerage fee to consider, so lets say you DCA monthly with RM500, even a RM10 minimum brokerage fee of RM10 will cost you 2% upfront on your investment. So one will need a higher DCA amount monthly to reduce the cost of investment.

QUOTE(Cubalagi @ Jul 26 2019, 02:00 PM)
That will be in mid Sept..

Personally, Im not too concerned about interest rate. A one off 25 bp cut by Fed shouldn't change BNM position, coz BNM already did that earlier. So we are back to "neutral" gear. Only if Fed suprise by a 50bp cut, then hv to re-evaluate.

Im a bit more concerned with what's inside Maybank books tho.. 1Q 2019 wasn't good profit wise, due ro higher impairments. 2nd Q could be worse, and this may impact the amount of interim dividend. That's why I'm looking forward to end of this month for the results.

But investing is about looking forward, n I'm generally more confident about 2H2019 for Malaysia and Asean economy. When that gets better, Maybank should perform better.
*
True, long term wise Maybank is still a safe play, and its yield at current price is one of the highest. If it could maintain its payout rate as the year before, then the price could see a rebound from current level due to increased confidence. Management wise, I still prefer Maybank.
Yggdrasil
post Jul 26 2019, 09:25 PM

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QUOTE(Ancient-XinG- @ Jul 25 2019, 07:55 AM)
I hold both MBSB and takaful. Looking into BIMB too. Last earnimg was good.
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Just bought Takaful today but lost money sad.gif I think it's because they didn't give dividend (not sure why).
[Ancient]-XinG-
post Jul 26 2019, 10:54 PM

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QUOTE(Yggdrasil @ Jul 26 2019, 09:25 PM)
Just bought Takaful today but lost money sad.gif I think it's because they didn't give dividend (not sure why).
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Enter at 600... Should have sell at 700... T.T


Cubalagi
post Jul 29 2019, 05:30 PM

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Finance index down today... Maybank lucky steady at close, but hit RM8.70 intraday. Can go down below RM8. 70 on Wed?..
bmwcaddy
post Jul 31 2019, 09:16 AM

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Anyone can update here if BNM got yield cut ?
Cubalagi
post Jul 31 2019, 11:01 AM

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QUOTE(bmwcaddy @ Jul 31 2019, 09:16 AM)
Anyone can update here if BNM got yield cut ?
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12 Sept u will know
Cubalagi
post Jul 31 2019, 11:02 AM

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QUOTE(Cubalagi @ Jul 29 2019, 05:30 PM)
Finance index down today... Maybank lucky steady at close, but hit RM8.70 intraday. Can go down below RM8. 70 on Wed?..
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Below 8.70 now.. Damn Trump..
[Ancient]-XinG-
post Jul 31 2019, 01:43 PM

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finance index down again.
cherroy
post Jul 31 2019, 02:50 PM

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QUOTE(Ancient-XinG- @ Jul 31 2019, 01:43 PM)
finance index down again.
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Tonight likelyhood Fed may cut rate.

Rate cut is negative to banks/finance sector, as it can erode NIM.
[Ancient]-XinG-
post Jul 31 2019, 05:04 PM

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Jialat.

My takaful mbsb rhb all leading loss.

Cry no tears.

Mbb touch 868 today.

Wahh

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