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 MayBank shareholder Group

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moosset
post Jul 16 2019, 03:50 PM

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QUOTE(nexona88 @ Jul 16 2019, 12:19 PM)
Maybank is the biggest in Malaysia with some foreign exposure here & there..

So if the price do drop like unreasonable level.. time to collect them out 🎉💪
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but their foreign exposure is mostly in SEA?
Cubalagi
post Jul 16 2019, 04:12 PM

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QUOTE(moosset @ Jul 16 2019, 03:50 PM)
but their foreign exposure is mostly in SEA?
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Their profits come from 70% Malaysia n 30% other Asean. The rest are insignificant.
bmwcaddy
post Jul 18 2019, 11:38 AM

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What happened T.T
Yggdrasil
post Jul 18 2019, 11:47 AM

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RM8.88 very ong to buy hehe
moosset
post Jul 18 2019, 05:02 PM

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Since Khazanah & Amanah saham are trying to diversify their portfolio, if they sell half of their ownership, will the price go down substantially?
Cubalagi
post Jul 18 2019, 05:17 PM

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QUOTE(moosset @ Jul 18 2019, 05:02 PM)
Since Khazanah & Amanah saham are trying to diversify their portfolio, if they sell half of their ownership, will the price go down substantially?
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Khazanah is not a substantial shareholder of Maybank. They hv CIMB.

PNB/ASx.. yes. Nearly 50% ownership, which is about RM50b value. N if they try to sell half of that, yes sure price go down substantially n they will hv to recognise big losses. N diversify to where RM25 billion? So not going to happen.. They are stuck with Maybank for foreseeable future.

This post has been edited by Cubalagi: Jul 18 2019, 05:18 PM
zero47 P
post Jul 18 2019, 08:33 PM

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QUOTE(Cubalagi @ Jul 18 2019, 05:17 PM)
Khazanah is not a substantial shareholder of Maybank. They hv CIMB.

PNB/ASx.. yes. Nearly 50% ownership, which is about RM50b value. N if they try to sell half of that, yes sure price go down substantially n they will hv to recognise big losses. N diversify to where RM25 billion? So not going to happen.. They are stuck with Maybank for foreseeable future.
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If they sold Maybank, how else are they going to pay their ASB dividends?
[Ancient]-XinG-
post Jul 18 2019, 09:36 PM

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52 week low.

Jit pai ho seh liao.

Last week baru say mbb will lead bursa charge to 1700.


Jordy
post Jul 19 2019, 01:23 PM

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QUOTE(Ancient-XinG- @ Jul 18 2019, 09:36 PM)
52 week low.

Jit pai ho seh liao.

Last week baru say mbb will lead bursa charge to 1700.
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Can start to top up if price touch 8.80 (which is very possible with the current situation).
Been waiting eagerly for way too long brows.gif
moosset
post Jul 19 2019, 09:17 PM

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QUOTE(Jordy @ Jul 19 2019, 01:23 PM)
Can start to top up if price touch 8.80 (which is very possible with the current situation).
Been waiting eagerly for way too long brows.gif
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I'm queuing at RM 8. I guess I underestimated the stock price.
[Ancient]-XinG-
post Jul 19 2019, 09:32 PM

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QUOTE(Jordy @ Jul 19 2019, 01:23 PM)
Can start to top up if price touch 8.80 (which is very possible with the current situation).
Been waiting eagerly for way too long brows.gif
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wait more. can go lower. haha
Jordy
post Jul 20 2019, 12:44 PM

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QUOTE(moosset @ Jul 19 2019, 09:17 PM)
I'm queuing at RM 8. I guess I underestimated the stock price.
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QUOTE(Ancient-XinG- @ Jul 19 2019, 09:32 PM)
wait more. can go lower. haha
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The price shouldn't go that low as it has fallen from an average of around 9.60-ish within one year, and most of it can be attributed to the fallout of Hyflux corporate bond. While most of the bad news have been priced in, we should see Maybank's share price stabilising. It is unlikely to see such a solid financial company fall more than 10% in such a short period of time in the absence of an economic crisis or recession. I believe the bottom support is around 8.80, with a yield of around 6.2%.
Cubalagi
post Jul 20 2019, 11:35 PM

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QUOTE(moosset @ Jul 19 2019, 09:17 PM)
I'm queuing at RM 8. I guess I underestimated the stock price.
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Wah.. 8?

U use GTD order ke?
moosset
post Jul 20 2019, 11:45 PM

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QUOTE(Cubalagi @ Jul 20 2019, 11:35 PM)
Wah.. 8?

U use GTD order ke?
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yes.... There are 4 functions but I only know how to use 2 of them. One of them is GTD.

The reason is, I really hold some shares around RM 8.88 ... so I don't want to enter until it drops further around 10%.
bmwcaddy
post Jul 21 2019, 12:09 AM

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8.80 forum TP?

Currently 70% of my portfolio is in maybank. Good idea to pump in more cash for maybank at 8.80? Or better just diversify?
Yggdrasil
post Jul 21 2019, 02:34 AM

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Maybank has 11,241 mil shares. Maybank has a total exposure of RM1.95bil to Hyflux.

Suppose the whole investment is 100% impaired, the share price should only fall by (1,950mil/11,241mil) RM0.17347. Before Hyflux news it was trading at RM9.20, minus RM0.32 dividend and RM0.17347 impairment, it should be RM8.70.

Now suppose Maybank keeps the dividend at RM0.25, it should be safe to buy below RM8.95 before the next QR and dividend.

But if US announce rate cut, likely it will fall a bit more.

This post has been edited by Yggdrasil: Jul 21 2019, 02:35 AM
bmwcaddy
post Jul 21 2019, 10:08 AM

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QUOTE(Yggdrasil @ Jul 21 2019, 02:34 AM)
Maybank has 11,241 mil shares. Maybank has a total exposure of RM1.95bil to Hyflux.

Suppose the whole investment is 100% impaired, the share price should only fall by (1,950mil/11,241mil) RM0.17347. Before Hyflux news it was trading at RM9.20, minus RM0.32 dividend and RM0.17347 impairment, it should be RM8.70.

Now suppose Maybank keeps the dividend at RM0.25, it should be safe to buy below RM8.95 before the next QR and dividend.

But if US announce rate cut, likely it will fall a bit more.
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Your Hyflux reduction is only NAV reduction basis right? Not inclusive of future potential earnings?
Yggdrasil
post Jul 21 2019, 01:23 PM

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QUOTE(bmwcaddy @ Jul 21 2019, 10:08 AM)
Not inclusive of future potential earnings?
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If you can do a better calculation please show us especially the methodology you quantify the fall in Goodwill due to bad name, potential recovery of bad debt, probability of US rate cut, probability of recession etc.

This is just a simple calculation that worked for IJM the day it's contract for LRT3 was terminated. It was oversold beyond the contract value. Look at the price today.
Cubalagi
post Jul 21 2019, 02:05 PM

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QUOTE(bmwcaddy @ Jul 21 2019, 12:09 AM)
8.80 forum TP?

Currently 70% of my portfolio is in maybank. Good idea to pump in more cash for maybank at 8.80? Or better just diversify?
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When u say 70%, I take it u mean it's 70% of your stock holdings, not 70% of your total investment portfolio (which includes cash etc)? If its the later, then I think u r overexposed to Maybank.

For me, I already hv Maybank n I don't expect to be adding anymore at least until I see the 1H results n dividend announcement (end August). There are other more exciting stocks out there. But.... If there is a big drop say below RM8.50, I might be tempted to average down.


Jordy
post Jul 21 2019, 06:38 PM

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QUOTE(bmwcaddy @ Jul 21 2019, 12:09 AM)
8.80 forum TP?

Currently 70% of my portfolio is in maybank. Good idea to pump in more cash for maybank at 8.80? Or better just diversify?
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What is your average cost for Maybank? If there is not much difference from 8.80 then I suggest not to buy as 70% of your holdings in a single stock is already over-exposure by any standard. At most, one should only hold as much as 25% of any stock compared to the whole portfolio.

QUOTE(Yggdrasil @ Jul 21 2019, 02:34 AM)
Maybank has 11,241 mil shares. Maybank has a total exposure of RM1.95bil to Hyflux.

Suppose the whole investment is 100% impaired, the share price should only fall by (1,950mil/11,241mil) RM0.17347. Before Hyflux news it was trading at RM9.20, minus RM0.32 dividend and RM0.17347 impairment, it should be RM8.70.

Now suppose Maybank keeps the dividend at RM0.25, it should be safe to buy below RM8.95 before the next QR and dividend.

But if US announce rate cut, likely it will fall a bit more.
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It's going to be hard to reach 8.70 as all of the impairment has already been priced in. Hyflux is now on the binge of a potential revival by Utico, and if a deal comes through, then Maybank's risk exposure in Hyflux could be reduced or completely eliminated. We are all eagerly waiting for the good news.

I am of the view that Maybank would only hit 8.70 if there is a weakening sign of our economy, or if our interest rate is dropped further.

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