QUOTE(bmwcaddy @ Jul 21 2019, 12:09 AM)
8.80 forum TP?
Currently 70% of my portfolio is in maybank. Good idea to pump in more cash for maybank at 8.80? Or better just diversify?
What is your average cost for Maybank? If there is not much difference from 8.80 then I suggest not to buy as 70% of your holdings in a single stock is already over-exposure by any standard. At most, one should only hold as much as 25% of any stock compared to the whole portfolio.
QUOTE(Yggdrasil @ Jul 21 2019, 02:34 AM)
Maybank has 11,241 mil shares. Maybank has a total exposure of RM1.95bil to Hyflux.
Suppose the whole investment is 100% impaired, the share price should only fall by (1,950mil/11,241mil) RM0.17347. Before Hyflux news it was trading at RM9.20, minus RM0.32 dividend and RM0.17347 impairment, it should be RM8.70.
Now suppose Maybank keeps the dividend at RM0.25, it should be safe to buy below RM8.95 before the next QR and dividend.
But if US announce rate cut, likely it will fall a bit more.
It's going to be hard to reach 8.70 as all of the impairment has already been priced in. Hyflux is now on the binge of a potential revival by Utico, and if a deal comes through, then Maybank's risk exposure in Hyflux could be reduced or completely eliminated. We are all eagerly waiting for the good news.
I am of the view that Maybank would only hit 8.70 if there is a weakening sign of our economy, or if our interest rate is dropped further.