QUOTE(deodorant @ May 11 2008, 10:43 PM)
Hmm, Xbox launched 2001, Xbox360 in 2005, so yeah 4 years
... so new Xbox in 2009?
Seems hugely unlikely though, cos PS3/360 I think even now 2-3 years into the life cycle also still seen as "next-gen," not really "current-gen" yet. And the PS2 had a 6-year cycle (well ... even until now 8+ years into the life, still got developers putting out games for it).
Bellow is my personal opinion
This is a long rambling. So please skip it and go straight to the conclusion.
» Click to show Spoiler - click again to hide... «
We can see some pattern. Or at least I think so.
- MS core strength is PC and Software.
- The main objective to Xbox 360 is as Trojan horse into consumer living room.
- Currently Xbox 360 main push is as gaming platform instead of Blueray or HD-DVD platform or even media center.
- MS involvement in DLC with downloadable movie through Xbox Live.
- Xbox 360 going to have IPTV functionality.
- Generally Xbox is all about Xbox Life, not about the hardware itself. It is an online platform.
Now I'm going to blend all of above pattern into my train of thought.
MS, coming from a PC Software company is trying to get into consumer living room. The first Xbox has gain Microsoft foothold as a game machine. Many view this as a failure. But it is just one step of many. The second iteration, Xbox 360, has further strengthen this position. Going head to head with Nintendo and Sony. MS manage to get strong install base and lead the competition in the matter of strong online offering, which is Xbox Life.
The Xbox start as gaming machine. People hack it into media player and web browser. But MS insist that it is a gaming machine and never market it as set top boxes for web browsing or as media player.
Xbox 360 is pushed mainly as gaming machine. It gains media player functionality. However, half hearted support for HD DVD and the recent denial on Blue Ray support indicates that MS direction for the box, at least for now, is focusing it as gaming machine.
However, certain move suggest that gaming is stage 1. Remember that they want to be at the center of consumer living room. Not all consumer are gamers. Thus the next logical move is to branch out of this gaming only focus. This is seen in DLC (downloadable movie) and IPTV (delivering HD TV chanel through internet).
To market the box to non gamers, so that this people will buy it not to play games. At the moment Xbox 360 is a very intimidating machine to this kind of people. Because of the price, RROD/instability and last but also important because of the image. The image that Xbox 360 is mainly a gaming machine and some more being a hardcore gaming machine.
So let say Jasper and Valhalla solve price and RROD. Let's ponder what will solve the image problem then?
Let's go back to the first Xbox. The life cycle was 4 years and then it dies due to being unsupported. Some opine that it is a lost opportunity since MS can just re brand it as a Media Center. It is a one hell of a media center. Why not? Because there is some problem with NVIDIA at that time that cause Xbox to be very costly to mass produce and mass market it as Media Center.
That is not the case with Xbox 360.
Let's put Xbox 360 into Xbox shoes. Come end of 2009 (or end of 2010), the Xbox 360 life cycle is 4 years (or 5 years). No more manufacturing problem to mass produce and mass market it as Media Center + DLC + IPTV. With new software or some tweaking by MS, it will be a one hell of a media center + DLC + IPTV.
Technically, on paper, it will be a huge success. All the ingredient is there. Instant hot "pisang goreng".
In reality, mass market it as it is. It is a no go. There is this image problem to consumer that are not gamers.
The image that come with the 360 is big, loud, unstable, hardcore ... in short it is intimidating.
The solution here is rebranding. Produce a small, quiet and stable box. Call it MiniBox or whatever, as long as it doesn't start with 'X' in it. Deemphasize the game playing part of the machine. Let say ... "Hey this is a media center that come with free family friendly arcade games". It plays game, but not intimidating type of games.
However, what this essentially do is diluting Xbox 360 hardcore image so that it is mass consumer friendly. The bad side of doing this is Xbox 360 strong perception as gaming machine will become less. Hardcore game wants for powerful gaming machine will not be satiated. After 4 or 5 years, this type of people (who probably upgrade their PC every year) will most likely look else where for their powerful gaming machine. There is always PC, no doubt about that! There is also PS3 that is becoming more mature development wise (i.e. more power unleashed through better parallelizing of AI, Physic & gfx rendering codes ... those kind of thing).
This is where and most importantly when the third iteration of Xbox is coming. IMHO, it will be more like Xbox 360.5 instead of Xbox 720. It wont be big changes on the hardware. Most probably it will be something hypable like 20x performance vs Xbox 360. When in truth it is more likely to be just some additional core to the cpu, quadruple the RAM (2 GB RAM is cheap! Even today!) and most importantly (for the performance hype) make the eDRAM 16 MB
. So that 720P 2x MSAA will be really free. Probably more eDRAM since hardcore people will want free 2x antialiasing on 1080p instead of 720p.
The thing that really matter when it comes to Xbox 360 "new" hardware is that it can be hyped to rival the next generation of Sony gaming machine. The hardware upgrade is incremental but the hype will be exponential.
Come to think of it. Whatever the hardware is really doesn't matter. As long as it can run "next generation" game (which is also a hype, since "this generation" Xbox 360 game is comparable to "last generation" PC game) and it come with Xbox Live.
Which is why stated in the pattern that, generally Xbox is all about Xbox Life, not about the hardware itself. It is an online platform.
Conclusion
If I am the head of a company that come from PC market and my company strength is Software. Versus an opponent that is a hardware company. Very strong in consumer electronics. My strategy will be:
A. To level the playing fields. Change the console market to be as similar to as PC market. Incremental upgrade machine using commodity hardware, more emphasize on software (plus Xbox Life) instead of hardware and cheap old machine. Leveling the playing field change the game rules. As additional effect may cause opponent to missteps.
B. Software release cycle is very fast due to common platform on incrementally upgraded hardware machine. Since the software change is not much. So it really make sense to rush next gen machine. At the same time disadvantaging hardware centric company with longer product life cycle.
What I'm saying is that Sony product life cycle is long. That is Sony strategy. To counter it, might as well zerg/rush it with Xbox 1.5 and then later on Xbox 360.5.
After all what most important is the perception of next gen games. Which is actually not that next gen when compared to current PC games capability in term of raw power. The next thing that is unique to Xbox 360, at least for the moment, is Xbox Life. It doesnt matter what is the hardware as long as it can do Live.
On point A. I did mention cheap old machine.
IMHO, the current Xbox 360 will warp into mass consumer device that do Media Center functionality while still play "current generation" games and arcade games. And it will be cheap like PS2 cheap vs PS3 now.
While the Xbox 360.5 will play "next generation" game and be the hard core gaming machine to rival PS3 (for few years) and then the next generation of Sony game console.
That's how I will do it.
. Not necessarily how MS will do it. It depend also on Sony move and how successful PS3 is (vs how suck 360 will be in the next few years).
STANDARD DISCLAIMER APPLIES
* This is a forum post. I'm not writing an article for magazine or whatever. Meaning I don't do research and interview Bill Gates or Steve Ballmer about their game console master plan. All of this is my opinion and gut feeling. Take it as it is.
** Please do not publish this anywhere else without my consent as I don't want to look like an a$$ when fan boys (the extreme type) start ditching me sh|t left and right. LYN
FORUM is fine because I luv it here.
This post has been edited by haris: May 13 2008, 11:08 AM 
May 9 2008, 10:51 AM, updated 18y ago
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is it normal ah?
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