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 WIll BLR in future increase from 6.75% or lower, (Discuss)

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empyreal
post Jun 11 2008, 05:46 AM

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QUOTE(cherroy @ Jun 10 2008, 09:34 PM)
BLR is fixed at a ceiling level by BNM, currently 6.75%, yes correct. But the fixed rate can be changed from time to time by BNM depended on economy situation. Just for the last 2-3 years, economy is not moving in either direction, so the BLR is being left at 6.75% for this period of time but it doesn't mean future BLR will be the same especially current economy condition and inflation situation will have big impact on the macro-economy side.

So BLR is not fixed but fixed at a ceiling by BNM  tongue.gif  and can be reviewed from time to time, normally when BNM hold meeting, (about a month plus for every meeting interval), only when there is emergency situation, then BNM will act accordingly which is same across various countries central bank or Fed Reserves.

I hope my explainatin is clear enough.
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personally speaking, as one who did not delve any deeper into international finance than the macroecon level, should not the reduction in gov spending allow the bank some space to reduce rates? to be sure, this is counter-acted by the inflationary effects of oil, yet with governemnt spending, as well as public spending lower nowadays, and seeing that there is going to be a freeze on new gov projects, surely public savings is up which in turn allow banks to offer cheaper rates to spur growth?

and in contrast with what dreamer opines, if we have a large amount of savings despite the low rates, then it means that its quite inelastic, then. if we lower it further, it won't move by much, stands to reason. furthermore, i see nothing wrong with national money going out. any earnings from that money invested outside that is thus repatriated counts into the intangible exports section of the national accounts.

i am a bit confused, though. what do you refer to by 'demand for money'? is it money demand, as in the economic sense where it is the amount of currency one wishes to hold in proportion to savings, or money demand in terms of something else? this is because, in times of recessions, with the uncertainty of banks, money demand goes up, as in more money is in the hands of the public.

of course, it is all a muddle to me, currently. (drunk again, barbecue.).
empyreal
post Jun 11 2008, 06:50 PM

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QUOTE(cherroy @ Jun 11 2008, 11:31 AM)
The high supply of money has caused FD rate stay at historical low. Why? because since 1998 crisis, domestic demand has slumped and not recover well, while export is good because of cheaper RM, so trade surplus is building every year, every month, so money become plenty.
But with less investment opportunites around (businesses expansion, investment like stock market), those cash is just sitting in the banks doing not many things. You can esee those well managed company, mostly are high in cash level, which also a lot of well managed listed company give windfall special dividend from time to time because those cash has not much opportunites being used.

Gov spending is not reduced, don't be misled by this few days newspapers headline, those reduction is just tiny portion to make newspaper headlines, insignificant. 
In fact, if gov spending is really reduced and slightly thrifty (like don't buy a Rm200 screw drive set) then gov won't have budget deficit of more than 3% of total GDP.

Also, although Malaysia ecoonomy is highly depended on gov (as 1 millions + workforce is in gov servant), still gov spending is not the entire picture, private sector is the one main driving force of the economy.

Another point is that reduction in gov spending has no direct relationship with money supply.

Actually we have negative interest rate at the moment as inflation rate > FD interest rate.
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i do understand that fiscal policies do not have much to do with monetray policies; i was just mentioning the possibility of the gov taking on an expansionary fiscal pol. what with the high savings and low money demand despite the low rates, especially so given the para-demiurgical nature of the gov. i figure we just have to bear with the inflation for the moment.

on an aside, has the money supply increased much these past few years?

personally, i have never been able to grasp how people not dissave when rates are low. a little unreasonable in my mind, plus it muddles up the estimates.

 

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