Market to react to elections outcome

By KATHY FONG and LOONG TSE MIN

PETALING JAYA: The external shock from the bigger-than-expected job cuts in the US and the uncertainties on public policy direction after the general election are likely to unsettle the stock market sentiment.

Investment analysts and fund managers polled by StarBiz generally concurred that the market would have a knee-jerk reaction to the unprecedented outcome of the general election, with the ruling party Barisan Nasional winning only a simple majority in parliament and losing control of four states.

The knee-jerk reaction was not a sign that the market did not welcome changes in political leaderships, they said.

Some pointed out that it could be a change for the better in terms of transparency and corporate governance when there were stronger opposition parties in the parliament.

"A powerful opposition is a positive development in the longer term, providing some checks and balances for trillion-ringgit government spending," said Aberdeen Asset Management Sdn Bhd managing director Gerald Ambrose. "But in the shorter term, this would be bad for certain stocks that will see a lot of volatility."

He stressed that Aberdeen would continue to hold on to its investments in Malaysia and would not change.

The main concern for the investing community is how the federal government will work with the new state governments on public projects that involve both parties.

"There is no map to guide us now because it has never happened in history before," said MIMB Investment Bank head of equity research Pong Teng Siew.

With the opposition parties gaining control in Penang, Perak, Kedah and Selangor, uncertainties arise on the public contracts that are anticipated to roll out under the Ninth Malaysia Plan (9MP).

Also, there are worries on possible delays of projects that have already been awarded if the state governments decided to review them.

It may be a different ball game now for companies tendering for public jobs. Companies, which are perceived to have the capabilities to secure large-scale projects, may not be in an advantageous position as before.

"It is important to note that the Malaysian states control land matters so construction and property companies may be affected in states like Selangor and Penang," said KSC Capital director of research Choong Khuat Hock.

Choong said construction companies involved in the double-tracking railway project and property companies like SP Setia Bhd, Equine Capital Bhd and E&O Properties Bhd might be affected if there were delays in terms of getting approvals from the state governments.

Among projects that are currently being watched are the double-tracking railway, second Penang bridge, Penang Global City Centre, and Selangor-Pahang interstate water project.

Nonetheless, some analysts said, many of the projects were under the federal government; thus they might not be affected.

On the foreign front, the gloomy picture of the US job market and the worsening defaults in sub-prime mortgages would also rock market sentiment, analysts said.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average dipped 146.7 points or 1.22% to 11,893.7 - a 19-month low.

The US Labour Department announced that 63,000 non-farm jobs were lost in February. This was in contrast to the expectation of 25,000 positions to be added.

JP Morgan said more defaults in sub-prime mortgages were likely. The continued rise in loan defaults would deplete banks' capital and worsen the credit crunch.

Capital Dynamics Asset Management managing director Tan Teng Boo said the change of government was part of being a democratic nation.

"Already the market has to deal with the negative news flow from the US sub-prime loans, and now we are having this surprising poll results, which create uncertainties on public policy direction," Tan noted.

But he said investors should look beyond the knee-jerk reactions. "As long as the rule of law is still intact, the long-term prospects of the local stock market could remain as bright," he added.

URL: http://biz.thestar.com.my/news/story.asp?f...56&sec=business