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 Forex Trading Corner V2

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small-jeff
post Jul 2 2008, 12:24 AM

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QUOTE(low yat 82 @ Jul 2 2008, 12:15 AM)
too tired today... wanna sleep liao... key in SL TP d... let it run by itself... lol...
*
seems like you were right on EJ tongue.gif
mphpopular
post Jul 2 2008, 12:32 AM

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QUOTE(low yat 82 @ Jul 2 2008, 12:15 AM)
too tired today... wanna sleep liao... key in SL TP d... let it run by itself... lol...
*
Nice for you. I still cant sleep. Need to be awake and havent finish all my work due to my GU.

How am i going to type the project into my microsoft word while my chart is on???? I need to type 15m. then alt+tab see 2 min. then alt+tab to words again.
normeck
post Jul 2 2008, 12:35 AM

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just closed your chart....
mphpopular
post Jul 2 2008, 07:41 AM

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MY GJ...
Forming a ranging area betwween two big trendline.. You can see it over daily TF.

This post has been edited by mphpopular: Jul 2 2008, 07:42 AM


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billytong
post Jul 2 2008, 10:33 AM

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QUOTE(dr2k3 @ Jul 1 2008, 11:13 AM)
well.....strengthen the euro do more harm than good.......

previously there's already an announcement on ECB to bring down euro.....not rate....so either the rate stay there or drop......like u say...the chances of rate drop from ECB is so low....but the chances r there
*

I repeat, there is no way the ECB will drop rate for this time. It is not even in their mind to drop rate. Oil 143USD and u except them to cut rate?

They will lose their job for causing an even higher inflation.

i am running at least 50% probability they will hike the rate to 4.25%. Oil 143USD. Thats alone have enough reason to hike rate.

hitokiri_maniac
post Jul 2 2008, 10:34 AM

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i found this chartpartern website..useful for chart partern lover

http://www.candlesticker.com/Default.asp


Added on July 2, 2008, 10:38 am
QUOTE(billytong @ Jul 2 2008, 10:33 AM)
I repeat, there is no way the ECB will drop rate for this time. It is not even in their mind to drop rate. Oil 143USD and u except them to cut rate?

They will lose their job for causing an even higher inflation.

i am running at least 50% probability they will hike the rate to 4.25%. Oil 143USD. Thats alone have enough reason to hike rate.
*
i agree with u.. the oil price already bad enoughh.. wanna add cut rates summore.. gile laaa doh.gif doh.gif

This post has been edited by hitokiri_maniac: Jul 2 2008, 10:38 AM
normeck
post Jul 2 2008, 11:15 AM

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QUOTE(billytong @ Jul 2 2008, 10:33 AM)
I repeat, there is no way the ECB will drop rate for this time. It is not even in their mind to drop rate. Oil 143USD and u except them to cut rate?

They will lose their job for causing an even higher inflation.

i am running at least 50% probability they will hike the rate to 4.25%. Oil 143USD. Thats alone have enough reason to hike rate.
*
I love your explanation about Fundemental la..... notworthy.gif thats how i make profit....any web that i can see the news or some opinion about forecast fundemental.....maybe i can learn after i read it....tq billy
luqmanz
post Jul 2 2008, 11:19 AM

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QUOTE(luqmanz @ Jul 1 2008, 03:43 PM)
Hmm seems like theres a fierce battle in EURUSD at area 5750 .... im gonna take a long position here ....
*
I got stopped out for 3 pips profit lol ...
Gonna stay out for now ....

dr2k3
post Jul 2 2008, 11:59 AM

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QUOTE(billytong @ Jul 2 2008, 10:33 AM)
I repeat, there is no way the ECB will drop rate for this time. It is not even in their mind to drop rate. Oil 143USD and u except them to cut rate?

They will lose their job for causing an even higher inflation.

i am running at least 50% probability they will hike the rate to 4.25%. Oil 143USD. Thats alone have enough reason to hike rate.
*
well....diff ppl diff thinking....

i would say 90% stay and 10% drop


billytong
post Jul 2 2008, 12:14 PM

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QUOTE(normeck @ Jul 2 2008, 11:15 AM)
I love your explanation about Fundemental la..... notworthy.gif thats how i make profit....any web that i can see the news or some opinion about forecast fundemental.....maybe i can learn after i read it....tq billy
*

*cough, I am just a FX trader, dont bring me so high up doh.gif

www.Forexfactory.com
www.bloomberg.com
www.cnbc.com
www.ecb.int They have live video from trichet

Anynews that u can come over from google. If most of Economist say the samething. It is Most likely it is true. the above 3 websites (except ECB.int) u can link to a lot of other website about fundamentals. I usually link from there to other unknown ed places.

Stay out of market guys, This market is like time ticking bomb now. Any stupid move @ ECB will create a swing up and down 100-500pips.

I running only 1% probability they will drop rate.


As for technical, Look at candle stick 1min, 5min & 30min to decide ur trade, it works very effective.

Luqmaz is right, 5750 is proven to be key levels in the past for quite sometime. It probably good to take a long below 5750 with a +1 pip profit SL.

This post has been edited by billytong: Jul 2 2008, 12:20 PM
normeck
post Jul 2 2008, 01:00 PM

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Asian Stocks Decline, Led by Nippon Yusen, Korean Air, Honda

ok ...please teach me on this...lets go to basic 1st

Asian Stocks decline....that means?....

their current situation on economy was going down...then JPY currency sure get down right?

after that people will sell Yen right?>

This post has been edited by normeck: Jul 2 2008, 01:07 PM
dr2k3
post Jul 2 2008, 01:17 PM

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QUOTE(normeck @ Jul 2 2008, 01:00 PM)
Asian Stocks Decline, Led by Nippon Yusen, Korean Air, Honda 

ok ...please teach me on this...lets go to basic 1st

Asian Stocks decline....that means?....

their current situation on economy was going down...then JPY currency sure get down right?

after that people will sell Yen right?>
*
usually when stock decline yen rise....aka gbp,usd/jpy drop

i heard something about buy yen to pay debt or something liddat, because yen rate is very low

This post has been edited by dr2k3: Jul 2 2008, 01:18 PM
normeck
post Jul 2 2008, 01:23 PM

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1)when bank decrease their interest rate...then more poeple will borrow money from bank....mean? good for economy? currency will go up?
dr2k3
post Jul 2 2008, 01:32 PM

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rate drop = currency drop...because ppl want the rate....same like FD...if low u want to put in o not?

but rate low good for stock....but not for jp case...very complicated....too many chain reaction


billytong
post Jul 2 2008, 01:54 PM

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QUOTE(dr2k3 @ Jul 2 2008, 01:17 PM)
usually when stock decline yen rise....aka gbp,usd/jpy drop

i heard something about buy yen to pay debt or something liddat, because yen rate is very low
*
It is call carry Trades. I'll try explain in a quite layman term.

Because Yen have low interest 0.5%, so their "BLR" is low too, it is good to borrow the money fron Yen Banks and put into Stocks or high FD currency like AUD or NZD.

Most people will borrow to buy stocks,

for example, a local unit trust stock Fund manager took ur money and put into high interest FD like AUD or NZD, and he will use that money to borrow money from Yen Banks, *(hey I have xx amount of AUD or NZD how much I can borrow Yen).

Then AUD NZD is like 7-8% FD, vs Yen 0.5%, even u factor in the BLR rate. U still earn money. So most hedge fund or big guys borrow yen to buy stocks.

When stocks go UP, more demand to borrow Yen, Because when U buy Stock with Yen, u are actually selling Yen at the same time. In this case the Yen will depreciate, Hence all xxx/Jpy pairs goes up with stocks.

When stock crash, everyone scared, they sell their stocks and demand for Yen. When u sell ur stocks u need to demand for Yen so u can settle ur LOAN from bank earlier. When demand of Yen increase, Yen goes up, Hence xxx/Jpy pairs crash. It is better for me sell my stock take small loss and buy back expensive Yen than Holding my stock for bigger loss + having bank to charge me LOAN interest over time.

Stocks like Dow Jones, FTSE, DAX has a huge effects on Jpy. Because Americans and Europeans have bigger pockets tongue.gif
dr2k3
post Jul 2 2008, 02:02 PM

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ya...what he say... tongue.gif

i think should be......borrow yen(sell yen) to buy usd/gbp/euro to buy stock.....
i dont think anyone would accept yen when u try to buy US stock tongue.gif

This post has been edited by dr2k3: Jul 2 2008, 02:07 PM
normeck
post Jul 2 2008, 02:12 PM

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The Day Ahead Canada & U.S.: ADP Employment Report, Challenger Job Cuts

(CEP News) - Jobs will be on the minds of investors as two key employment reports will be released on Wednesday.

Markets will get a look at the labour market with the release of ADP employment report ahead of Thursday's nonfarm payrolls data. Economists expect ADP to show a decrease of 20,000 jobs for June, following a 40,000 rise in May.

does that means it will get -ve for NOnFarm?

billytong
post Jul 2 2008, 02:15 PM

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QUOTE(dr2k3 @ Jul 2 2008, 02:02 PM)
ya...what he say... tongue.gif

i think should be......borrow yen(sell yen) to buy usd/gbp/euro to buy stock.....
i dont think anyone would accept yen when u try to buy US stock tongue.gif
*

U borrow yen, and with that amount of money u buy USD and buy USD stock. I am trying to cut the one out so it is simple enough in my explanation.

low yat 82
post Jul 2 2008, 02:17 PM

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close d EJ positions for yesterday... waitin for clearer sign...
hitokiri_maniac
post Jul 2 2008, 02:30 PM

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QUOTE(billytong @ Jul 2 2008, 01:54 PM)
It is call carry Trades. I'll try explain in a quite layman term.

Because Yen have low interest 0.5%, so their "BLR" is low too, it is good to borrow the money fron Yen Banks and put into Stocks or high FD currency like AUD or NZD.

Most people will borrow to buy stocks,

for example, a local unit trust stock Fund manager took ur money and put into high interest FD like AUD or NZD, and he will use that money to borrow money from Yen Banks, *(hey I have xx amount of AUD or NZD how much I can borrow Yen).

Then AUD NZD is like 7-8% FD, vs Yen 0.5%, even u factor in the BLR rate. U still earn money. So most hedge fund or big guys borrow yen to buy stocks.

When stocks go UP, more demand to borrow Yen, Because when U buy Stock with Yen, u are actually selling Yen at the same time. In this case the Yen will depreciate, Hence all xxx/Jpy pairs goes up with stocks.

When stock crash, everyone scared, they sell their stocks and demand for Yen. When u sell ur stocks u need to demand for Yen so u can settle ur LOAN from bank earlier. When demand of Yen increase, Yen goes up, Hence xxx/Jpy pairs crash. It is better for me sell my stock take small loss and buy back expensive Yen than Holding my stock for bigger loss + having bank to charge me LOAN interest over time.

Stocks like Dow Jones, FTSE, DAX has a huge effects on Jpy. Because Americans and Europeans have bigger pockets tongue.gif
*
so in short word

when japan stock exchange goes up... the pair xx/JPY will go up.. when the stock goes down.. the pairs xx/JPY will go down also..

rite?

how about stocks like Dow Jones ,FTSE,DAX effect to pairs XX/JPY?

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