Pana,
Remember to discount the potential dividend given out if really want to go for the CW, as dividend given out will be deducting the share price out.
I didn't do the fair value calculation on its CWs now but the dividend issue need to be taking into it.

If CWs is trading at discount after deducting out the potential dividend then CWs can be considered depends on individual issue which I will put on the below scenario especially regarding cash flow issue.
For eg.

You really want to buy PBBank at 11.00, so one will fork out 11K for it.

On the other hand,
(this seldom happened but do happen occassional when market tumble time) If PBBank-Cx after adding up conversion value and its price, total value let say it is trading at 1.00 (exercise 9.40, ratio 1:1) = 10.40, potential dividend expected in the period before Cws expired 0.60, so in this case, it is more wise to go for CW as you have the advantage of gearing.
As CW will move tightly with mothershare price, even if its expire, you can fork out the money to buy its mothershare latter which in turn has the same amount and effect with initially straight away fork out 11K for it.
That's how hedge funds, portfolio managers play their game on it.

Scenario 1
Fork out 11k straight away

Scenario 2
Buy fair value/discount CW/W at 1.00 (to simplify the case without consider dividend first exercise price 10.00, ratio 1:1), you free out the 10K in the period before CW expire, the 10K even put in FD still gain interest out of it.

Eg. when CW expire time
Pbbank share drops to 10.00,
Scenario 1 & 2, both lose 1K, same. You stil can fork out 10K to buy it afterwards when CW expired which in turn same as 11K initial put out

Pbbank share drops to 9.00
Scenario 1 lose 2K
Scenario 2 lose 1K, while you can fork out 9K which become total cost of owning Pbbank become 10K only compared to 11K initially.

Pbbank share goes up to 12.00
Both gain 1K while scenario 2 gains extra FD interest out of 10K in the period before CW expired.

This only applicable to Warrant or CW that are trading at fair value or discount after taking account of dividend issue.

Just sharing some information. Judge you own based on which one suit to you.

This post has been edited by cherroy: Jan 12 2008, 02:44 PM

This is definite true.
So each time we bank with Pbbank or buying PB or PM UT fund, you earn our money! Haha

Yup it was Pbbank-O1.

It may be once a life time opportunities, due to financial crisis which is very very severe at that time. To be precise it was 0.88 (I remembered because of this figure also ), but back then it is a 0.50 Par value share, it was being merged intp Rm1 par value shares year ago, so 2 shares become 1 share. It is nothing to shout about, a lot of people suffer significant loss during that year (1998) including me, not the like of subprime plunge in the August, (just a peanut if really want to compare, it is similar to housing stocks in US currently, to be more like to like comparison, housing stocks in US has already dropped more than 50-70% now) but market across even good stocks are dropping more than 50% and more.

It occassionally does give out bonus issue, but personally view bonus issue is not actually a 'bonus', your holding value is still the same, if price doesn't go up. Nothing changes much due to bonus issue alone.
80% of annual return over long term is almost impossible, but 1-3 years average can be, but not 5-10 years time. Long term (decades) of return rate 20% pa and above is considered very good already.

This post has been edited by cherroy: Jan 14 2008, 09:52 PM

As long as fundamental still intact, nothing to worry especially on fundamental strong stocks. Only worry if Pbbank is going to report lower profit.

Can't blame those CWs holders, as expiry time become nearer and nearer, a lot of CWs are worth nothing. After all, CWs are meant for short term speculative purposes, once goes wrong, then pay the price but once get right enjoy the gain. It is not like holding stocks like Pbbank that you can ignore the market condition and hold it indefinitely.

Should I being called 'uncle' as well? Just joking..
After think further, may be yes already.


Yup, there are plenty of old folks that bought then keep it for ages, don't mean to sell at all.

This post has been edited by cherroy: Jan 17 2008, 01:57 PM

It depends who is the largest shareholding or controlling stake afterwards, gov can't simply just take over without significant stake in it.

People anticipate some good result and generous dividend, resulted Pbbank is up rather than following the market down trend.

I think what he meant is don't bother too much about daily price movement too much, only occassionally monitor it, will be enough especially for those whom opt for long term one. As market sentiment and movement might affect some emotion that could potentially lead to a person to have wrong judgement.

It is some sort like if you see market red across and plunging fast that you are somehow will be wary to enter the market. Instead if you only see the individual stock at a price which is not being traded at an attractive level that you previous wish to have then you probably will buy it.

Pbbank-O1 is meant for foreigners holding with up to 30% of the total paid up capital. To be precise O1 doesn't have to 20-30 cents higher or lower than the local one, the market price is depended on foreigner willingness to buy/hold this stock. It can be much lower than local one, if foreigners wish to sell like 1997 case whereby O1 (back then called Pbbank-F) is much lower than the local/normal shares.

Actually foreigners also can buy Pbbank (local), just if Pbbank-O1 is full with 30% qouta then those foreigners buying local one won't have any voting right in company issue, but they still getting all the benefits like dividend, bonus etc except the voting right. So Pbbank-O1 can have a little higher price due to less supply (>30%).
Voting right is a important issue for those foreign international funds especially you are holding significant portion of it.

This post has been edited by cherroy: Feb 12 2008, 09:19 AM

Normally, it is advisable to get the 'cheaper' one as for local Malaysia, both are the same.
But if one sees Pbbank-O1 price going to rise due to foreign fund influx, then might as well go ahead, as when there are some huge foreign money coming, in history, the foreign one was once having as much as Rm1.++ premium over the local one. But Pbbank-O1 can suffer more in price drop if there are huge outflow of foreign funds.
Whenever, the foreign holding start to exceeding the 30% then Pbbank-O1 tends to have some premium although it is not a must.

Actually, the 'foreign' shares can be a gauge (not foo;proof as sometimes individual stocks issue is more important)how much interest of foreigners in this market as for long term foreigner portfolio fund managers, there are not many stocks they can choose from KLSE, can't run away several big caps one.

This post has been edited by cherroy: Feb 12 2008, 11:37 AM

Don't be too greedy lah, at current market condition especially for financial stock, staying put already very good liao. See others financial stock around the world, drop range from 30-70%. Even the stock is not moving, you are getting some dividend yield which is 2x of normal FD rate. <- still consider a win.

Also, stocks won't go straigh up one, mostly see-saw in between. Some period, it would be 'boring' one. Even some of my holding also 'lazzy' to monitor much as known it mostly will hardly move.

This post has been edited by cherroy: Feb 20 2008, 05:31 PM

Yup, even Maybank sold off its NPL ratio, it is still higher than Pbbank. Locally, Pbbank has the lowest NPL ratio among all.

This post has been edited by cherroy: Feb 29 2008, 10:16 AM

There is no 'best price', the 'best price' is always 'as low as possible'.
You don't know how far a stock can go down or go up.

Also, purely using the figure alone is not accurate to tell. Stock can have stock split, bonus issue which make the share price become 'small'. Just like Genting it was a Rm40, now is RM6.80 but this 6.80 is equivalent to 5x6.80 = 34.00.
Stock price alone means not much, it is a relative return rate potential that matter the most, that's why people come out some PE ratio, dividend yield etc to justify the stock is cheap or not.

Just my 2 cents.

This post has been edited by cherroy: Feb 29 2008, 01:41 PM

Currently, worldwide market is affected by US problem, but if local GLCs and listed company in KLSE doesn't improve their financial result, then DJ 15,000 also no use one. Just like last week (early of the week), DJ has nice consecutive rally of total 400+ points, KLSE was still heading down.

Most investors (including foreign fund) are concern about the inflation impact on the economy as there are plenty of goods in Malaysia are under heavy subsidy which gov won't be afford to keep on subsidise like previous due to significant rise in comodities and oil price. (Petrol is one of the best example).

If cannot withstand the share drop just 10-20% even in some fundamental strong stock with sleepless night, then for sure, you are definite not suitable to invest in stock market,

No effect or not much effect.

You have the valid point, but we never said at current level Pbbank is cheap though. It is fairly value, not cheap.

Pbbank is a conervative bank, it has not have the risk exposure like others bank (like US and international counterpart which had large exposure to derivatives product, CDO, subprime etc).

It is just better (not best, some others may be better choice) than ABC or XYZ stock (especially those 'goreng' one) in the market, if one really really want to put money into the stock market.

This post has been edited by cherroy: Mar 18 2008, 02:20 PM

It is a contrast comparison between Pbbank and Maybank. As some forumers worry what if Maybank and CIMB merged, how Pbbank will survive. Take this 2 result to compare, then it already explain largest is not mean strongest (Maybank is the largest bank in Malaysia currently). It is the profitability and efficiency that's matter the most.

Noted

Pbbank share is quite stubborn, won't go down much. With EPS around 21 cents/Q, it turns annualised of PE of 13, which is considered fair price at historical level.

Pbbank dividend history posted surely wrong. Only take pieces of it but not full picture.

Don't rely purely on public media to obtain those data, sometimes those data are not accurate. Even in Bloomberg, they had stated that those data published on their TV, they don't guarantee the accruracy of the data published.
You need to verify those data if those data are the key for your decision making process.

This post has been edited by cherroy: May 26 2008, 03:56 PM