Well, for me, a packed midfield is the best tactic, so, I would choose 4-5-1 or 4-4-1-1... why? The reason is rather simple, these tactics can virtually stops the ball from getting to defenders which means can virtually stops opponent to score a goal...

About 4-4-1-1, you always see a lone striker that get the ball upfront but blocked by a packed defense, in the situation, the lone striker can pass back the ball to the other striker (the one at behind) for him to just shoot from distance...