QUOTE(aurora97 @ Apr 8 2008, 12:41 AM)
We need volume to drive the market, speculators create the perfect volaitlity to get teh market moving. Look at the market now 10 mths before and after, bearly anyone wants to trade in the KLSE.
The market is completely directionless and illiquid to begin with, no one is bothered looking at equity market.
This is after all a free market, there is only so much you can control the market and this is the only path to a mature market not guided by greed and emotion but by thinking.
Without volatility you alo expose your market to foreign institutions whom have the money to buy in to local stocks, which in the end the losers are Malaysian investors. They are free to manipulate the market at their whim and fancy.
Look at the FCPO market, BMDB has raised the initial margin rates through the ceiling to control the market at RM 15,000 per contract.
Which sane investor would dump Rm 15,000 into the market?
For locals this maybe the truth, but from what I see on my daily papaer work it seems like foreign hedge funds are having their own party! Rm 15,000 is nothing, so is losing it cause its clients money and their clients r loaded.
Yup, it is a free market.
But with only speculation and intraday trading, it won't bring the market very far, it only will lead to potential bubble in making while clients are the losing end, (only investment banks gain through commission), by then damage is more severe than low liquid market.
It is because when share price is not moving up, any gain is because other person's loss, just like futures market, it is a zero sum gain. One loss is substitute by one gain, there is no net gain in the process, in fact, it is a net loss after deducting the commission. That's why KLSE keen to promote and try to increase the volume as well apart of liqudity side. Futures is good for hedging but nowadays this derivatives product become a money making machine for investment house with people speculate on it.
It must strike a balance to have a healthy market which will only prosperous to all. Purely driven by speculation, only good for short term, long term wise, don't bring much benefit to the economy. So instead of lowering intraday commission, why not lowering across all the commission so that investors have cheaper 'loading' and increase the turnover rate as well as increase the liquidity of the market.
Volume can drive the market, but without corporate earning improvement and economy growing, volume can't drive the market higher. You need fundamental issue to support the share price to higher level. Market can be driven by volume alone.
Just my 2 cents.