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 Crude Oil Forecast 2008 to Hit $150 a Barrel

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TSmych
post Dec 27 2007, 07:55 PM, updated 18y ago

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Sean Brodrick writes: In 2008, we're going to hit an important milestone. In the New Year the world is going to start using oil at a rate of more than 1,000 barrels PER SECOND!

According to the International Energy Agency, global oil demand will average 87.8 million barrels per day (bpd) in 2008, up from 85.7 million bpd in 2007. At 87.8 million bpd, we'll use 1,016 barrels per second - a sonic boom of energy use.

I also think 2008 is going to be the year we finally see triple-digit oil prices. More on that in a moment. First ...

The White House Is Stockpiling Oil! The Question Is, "Why?"

Since August, the Bush administration has been adding 50,000 barrels a day to the Strategic Petroleum Reserve - the nation's emergency oil stockpile - with plans to kick up the pace to 70,000 barrels a day by the end of January.

That U.S. oil tank of last resort now contains 695 million barrels of oil - enough to keep the American economy running for just 56 days if imports were suddenly cut off.

The federal government has been aggressively buying up the world's supply of light sweet crude at a time when crude is selling for over $90 per barrel.

And this binge buying has added as much as 10% to the price of crude, an oil consultant told a Senate panel recently. What's more, in the recent energy bill passed by Congress, President Bush asked - and received - authorization to DOUBLE the size of the Strategic Petroleum Reserve.

My question - what does the Bush administration know that would make them so eager to add to the Strategic Petroleum Reserve when prices are so high? What are they afraid of?

http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/Article3198.html
panasonic88
post Dec 27 2007, 08:01 PM

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i thought (and i believe many ppl also think the same) crude oil can break US$100 per barrel before 2008, but it fail to

today's priced at $94.30

addon: i might be wrong, as there are still 4 more days before the end of 2007 rolleyes.gif

This post has been edited by panasonic88: Dec 27 2007, 08:01 PM
jcvstlys
post Dec 27 2007, 08:07 PM

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It will break US$100/barrel soon. Who cares whether it's be4 2008 or after.
panasonic88
post Dec 27 2007, 08:11 PM

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it used to touching US$99.xx per barrel in late October

can't afford to go up further, end up dropping below US$90...

yiivei
post Dec 27 2007, 08:13 PM

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QUOTE(jcvstlys @ Dec 27 2007, 08:07 PM)
It will break US$100/barrel soon. Who cares whether it's be4 2008 or after.
*
definitely we gonna suffer lor whether or not it breaks 3 digits this yr or next yr onwards.
robertngo
post Dec 27 2007, 08:32 PM

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the government must hurry to held the election then, the subsidy is taking more and more of their budget, must reduce the subsidy fast.

I have doubt about this $150 price point, the current price have a lot to do with the weaker dollar and possible trouble in some oil production country. For it to rise another 50% the dollar will have to continue to drop or there is some major war or disaster in main production country whistling.gif hmm.gif
KVReninem
post Dec 27 2007, 09:31 PM

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by nymex trade it might but realistically it will push more higher inflation~

look at tis..
US dollar is slaughtering and china is very indeed more hungry than USA. everywhere they go they buy over and keep buying... USA is worry for its inventory...

low us dollar allow china buy more of oil which later will lead to more oil flow into china than states.
so wondering why ...
one must know why it is like tis before putting additional speculation~
TSmych
post Dec 27 2007, 11:43 PM

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perhaps this will explain the rush to Iran..

http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/14a53c98-b3f3-11...00779fd2ac.html

Malaysia signs $16bn gas deal with Iran

By Najmeh Bozorgmehr in Tehran

Published: December 26 2007 20:50 | Last updated: December 26 2007 20:50

Iran has signed a $16bn gas contract with Malaysia, intensifying its efforts to shift its flow of oil and gas deals towards eastern countries and bypass US-led pressure to thwart investment by western companies.

The contract, signed on Wednesday between Iran's Pars Oil and Gas Company and Malaysia's SKS Ventures, owned by Malaysian billionaire Syed Mokhtar Al-Bukary, includes the $6bn development of the Golshan and Ferdows gas fields in the next five-and-a-half years.

The second leg of the contract is worth $10bn and is earmarked for the production of liquefied natural gas from two offshore fields in the southern province of Bushehr. It was not clear what the time frame for the LNG project would be.

The Iranian oil and gas sector is in dire need of foreign investment to help meet mounting domestic consumption and to preserve its production rates.

While the US government has put pressure on its western allies to halt investments in Iran because of suspicions over its nuclear programme, Iran, which has the world's second largest oil and gas reserves, has openly pushed ahead with deals with Asian companies.

Wednesday's agreement follows the signing of a $2bn oil contract with China's Sinopec this month.

The recent deals come after a hiatus in contracts with foreign companies because of the issue of Iran's nuclear programme.

Analysts say the motivation behind the contracts is in part political as Iran hopes to persuade western companies to ignore US pressure.

Gholam-Hossein Nozari, oil minister, said: "The contract was finalised following Iran's approach towards Asia and taking into consideration the companies that are keen to work in Iran."

Some details about the contract were not disclosed, including the rate of return and subcontracting arrangements. But analysts expect western oil servicing companies to be involved if the project is to succeed.

One oil expert in Tehran said: "It is doubted the Malaysian company [would be able] to produce and market LNG. There must be some terms in the contract to use western companies as subcontractors."

Malaysia, a largely Muslim country, has been reluctant to bow to US pressure but its 10 per cent stake in a separate Iranian LNG project has been delayed because of reluctance by Total of France, the operator, to make a final investment decision.

Copyright The Financial Times Limited 2007
KVReninem
post Dec 28 2007, 12:15 PM

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so tats why george bush stockpile his crude oil; oil is very essential to america
panasonic88
post Dec 28 2007, 05:29 PM

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crude oil coming to US$96.99 today! ohmy.gif
robertngo
post Dec 30 2007, 07:14 PM

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QUOTE(KVReninem @ Dec 28 2007, 12:15 PM)
so tats why george bush stockpile his crude oil; oil is very essential to america
*
the strategic reserve have been started long before Bush become president.
Medufsaid
post Jan 3 2008, 07:06 AM

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Ladies and Gentlemen...
Oil at $100 per barrel. One business day later than prediction!

Hope oil won't really reach $150 leh... sad.gif
dreamer101
post Jan 3 2008, 08:02 AM

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QUOTE(mych @ Dec 27 2007, 07:55 PM)
Sean Brodrick writes: In 2008, we're going to hit an important milestone. In the New Year the world is going to start using oil at a rate of more than 1,000 barrels PER SECOND!

According to the International Energy Agency, global oil demand will average 87.8 million barrels per day (bpd) in 2008, up from 85.7 million bpd in 2007. At 87.8 million bpd, we'll use 1,016 barrels per second - a sonic boom of energy use.

I also think 2008 is going to be the year we finally see triple-digit oil prices. More on that in a moment. First ...

The White House Is Stockpiling Oil! The Question Is, "Why?"

Since August, the Bush administration has been adding 50,000 barrels a day to the Strategic Petroleum Reserve - the nation's emergency oil stockpile - with plans to kick up the pace to 70,000 barrels a day by the end of January.

That U.S. oil tank of last resort now contains 695 million barrels of oil - enough to keep the American economy running for just 56 days if imports were suddenly cut off.

The federal government has been aggressively buying up the world's supply of light sweet crude at a time when crude is selling for over $90 per barrel.

And this binge buying has added as much as 10% to the price of crude, an oil consultant told a Senate panel recently. What's more, in the recent energy bill passed by Congress, President Bush asked - and received - authorization to DOUBLE the size of the Strategic Petroleum Reserve.

My question - what does the Bush administration know that would make them so eager to add to the Strategic Petroleum Reserve when prices are so high? What are they afraid of?

http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/Article3198.html
*
mych,

A MORE IMPORTANT question is

A) Is OIL PRICE going up??

Or

B) USD going down??

IMHO, oil price is not going up in term of all other currency. It is going down because USD going down in value. Ditto for gold.

If we can find some chart comparing the increase of oil price versus depreciation of USD, we probably can factor fair amount of oil price increase because of devaluation of USD.

Dreamer
KVReninem
post Jan 3 2008, 08:07 AM

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usd going down push oil up as it is cheaper for other buyer to get it ...so create artificial demand
when all stablise it will fall into order
hanif444
post Jan 5 2008, 09:20 AM

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US Fed east US$130 by june 2008...
KVReninem
post Jan 5 2008, 01:55 PM

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QUOTE(hanif444 @ Jan 5 2008, 10:20 AM)
US Fed east US$130 by june 2008...
*
ohmy.gif ohmy.gif ohmy.gif
TSmych
post Jan 14 2008, 12:20 AM

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mych,

A MORE IMPORTANT question is

A) Is OIL PRICE going up??

Or

B) USD going down??


If you done some research most raw mat prices went up as a result of USD decline.. is explainable as the cost of production is in various local currency.. if the local currency is managed to peg against USD.. then the country will face a bleaker future.. so far all world currency incl RM has moved up against USD.. USD is becoming weaker day by day..
That is also the longer term opinion by Buffet..

 

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