QUOTE(simplesmile @ Aug 24 2009, 09:00 PM)
Why would you keep your cash in the business if the punters are shoving cash into your hands month after month without fail?

That is a good question actually, alot of people would ask, isnt it better for me to have cash in my hand rather than cash in a company. Well, if you are asking this question, then you understand the purpose of ROE (return on Equity). Lets take CSCENIC for example, which has an ROE of about 20%. This means that for every dollar invested in this company (regardless of whether the company is keeping alot of cash or having alot of loans, it doesnt matter), the company is helping me earn 20% on my invested capital!!!....does that answer your question?
Added on August 25, 2009, 1:01 amQUOTE(maxchua @ Aug 25 2009, 12:31 AM)
That is a good question actually, alot of people would ask, isnt it better for me to have cash in my hand rather than cash in a company. Well, if you are asking this question, then you understand the purpose of ROE (return on Equity). Lets take CSCENIC for example, which has an ROE of about 20%. This means that for every dollar invested in this company (regardless of whether the company is keeping alot of cash or having alot of loans, it doesnt matter), the company is helping me earn 20% on my invested capital!!!....does that answer your question?
This is the reason why i think CSCENIC is such a good Investment long term:
I am a very conservative investor, thus i always use a 5 years average to determine if the stock is good or bad for investment.
5 Years' Return on Equity (ROE)18%: This means that you will earn back all your capital within 5 years. (if you were to buy at their book value which is at $0.73, Current price is only $0.44, that is about 40% discount to their book value!) Which means that if you were to buy at current price, assuming that everything stays constant, it takes about 3 years to earn all your capital invested. (remember that this is a recession period, and they can still sustain this kind of earning, if you believe in recovery, things will look much more rosy.)
5 Years Avg. Dividend yield: 6%
If you were to invest now, at $0.44, your dividend would be about $0.03 (that sums up to about 6%), But if you were to hold (after all the research, i believe the fair value for this stock is about $0.90-$1.00), for about one-two years, 6% of $1.00 is about $0.06 which is your dividend. that would account to a 14% dividend yield if you were to buy the stock at this price now. Key to investment is long term.
The net profit margin after tax of the company is about 16% which suggest that this is a very profitable company. Even if there is a recession, probability of this company making profit is still very high because of the high margin (as compared to other blue chip stocks' whose net profit margin after tax is on the average about 5%).
Current Ratio of 14 which suggest liquidity of the firm. For every one dollar of Debt, they have $14 in reserve to pay their debts which suggest good liquidity. The cash flow of the company is not a problem. Debt to Equity ratio is only 0.08 which suggest very very low debts relative to its equity value. Warren Buffett once said, he loves to invest in companies with little or no debts because these company will 'never' (i forgot the exact word) go into bankruptcy.
Thus, i strongly stand by what i said. Its a good buy, good company, with lots of cash and no debts and pay good dividend.
Please feel free to drop by any comments regarding this stock, thank you.
Added on August 25, 2009, 1:09 amQUOTE(cherroy @ Aug 24 2009, 11:55 PM)
Maybulk profit margin is highly volatile depended on BDI which something they can't control, all depended on commodity shipment environment.
It is a good play for commodities demand recovery. But current commodities demand has not picking back to its prior crisis level. We might see price of commodities rebound a lot, but amount of demand side still weak, that's why BDI doesn't shoot up too much lately.
Maybulk merely earn 1-2 cents on last Q, so can't expect too much dividend in short term, anymore special dividend coming which more than its earning is not sustainable in long term, we need to see its EPS recovers.
No doubt, long term wise and with economy recovery, Maybulk could be good.
Seconded the comment, i agree totally, just want to add that due to the increase expected inflation in the world (after the fed pumping in so much), commodities are bound to rise....and rise alot (according to most of the analysts around the world), thus if you believe in rising commodities prices...which is very much correlated to DBI, then its very much advisable to invest in Maybulk. Personally i prefer Maybulk to BJTOTO (please note that i am not saying that BJTOTO is worthless or anything, ...simply put, i prefer Maybulk's business model more).
This post has been edited by maxchua: Aug 25 2009, 01:09 AM