Actually, after more than 9 years, even though technology has improved, manufacturers will keep increasing prices instead of reducing them — especially for batteries.

You can see the same trend with solar PV. Last time, when installation costs were very high, it was around RM10k per kWp, and now it has dropped to about RM4k per kWp on average. After so many years, the price should have gone down even further.

But no — TNB reduced the NEM duration from 20 years to 10 years. At the same time, manufacturers are not lowering prices anymore. Instead, we see more “enhancements” like micro-inverters and better panels, and the pricing has basically saturated.

And just when the price should drop again, battery storage systems come in — mainly to counter the new NEM policy — and suddenly the cost shoots up to around RM50k from the RM25k avg for residential.

So anyone claiming that battery technology improvements will eventually make prices go down is being too naive. It won’t happen. Manufacturers will make sure the pricing stays where they want it, no matter what.

To answer your first question, actually it’s neither one. People keep saying “after 9 years the technology should be even cheaper than RM4k per kWp,”. But the problem is we won’t get that — because the pricing is already dictated by the seller/manufacturer. So even if the real market price later is much lower, the replacement won’t follow the real market trend (not in Malaysia). When have you ever seen businesses in Malaysia lower their prices even when petrol prices fluctuate or in similar situations?

As for your second question, I also wouldn’t dare to take the deal. We’re in Malaysia — I have yet to see any consumer actually get the so-called 70% performance guarantee or panel/battery replacement honoured here (for Solar PV). On paper it sounds good, but in reality it’s mostly a marketing gimmick to make people feel there’s protection, when the chance of it being fulfilled is extremely low or NIL.