Gemini :

TL;DR:

The Signal: Sabah is a warning. If the "fed up" sentiment crosses the sea, DAP's "mixed seats" will collapse first.

The Kill Zone: Bentong, Raub, Labis, and Teluk Intan are on life support. They only survive because Chinese turnout is maxed out (80%+).

The Reality: If Chinese turnout drops to 60% (due to protest or apathy), the Malay vote bank will hand these seats to PN/BN instantly.

Conclusion: DAP's arrogance is subsidized by our high turnout. Stop the subsidy, and the "High Beta" seats go bust.

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Analysis:

Based on the Sabah election results, if we treat this sentiment as a "Leading Indicator," we can project which DAP seats in West Malaysia are most vulnerable in the next General Election (GE).


When market sentiment reverses, the "High Beta" assets (mixed seats relying on momentum) crash long before the "Blue Chips" (strongholds like Cheras/Kepong).

Here are the non-stronghold "Grey Zone" seats that are currently in the danger zone:

1. Pahang: The Most Dangerous Frontline

Pahang DAP seats are mostly mixed constituencies. DAP wins here solely because of "Maximized Chinese Support" (95% support + high turnout) to offset the deficit in Malay votes. If the Chinese turnout drops even slightly, these seats will collapse.
P089 Bentong (Young Syefura)
Risk Level: Critical.

Reasoning: This is a Malay-majority mixed seat (~50% Malay). Young Syefura won previously due to her youth appeal and residual Chinese anger towards the previous MCA candidate (Liow Tiong Lai). However, if Chinese voters perceive her as merely a "political token" or feel disillusioned enough to stay home, the combined force of the PN "Green Wave" and UMNO base will easily retake this seat.


P080 Raub (Chow Yu Hui)
Risk Level: High.

Reasoning: Historically an MCA stronghold. The local economy relies heavily on durian farming. If farmers feel the state/federal government hasn't protected their interests (e.g., land legalization issues), combined with the "teach DAP a lesson" sentiment, votes could swing back to MCA or result in mass abstention.


2. Johor: The Pragmatic Breach

Johor voters are less ideological and more pragmatic than those in KL or Penang. If DAP is seen as arrogant or ineffective, Johor voters are the most likely to switch sides.

P142 Labis (Pang Hok Liong)
Risk Level: Critical.

Reasoning: A classic semi-rural seat where MCA's grassroots machinery is still intact. If the PH government fails to deliver economic relief to smallholders, this seat is prime for a flip.

P152 Kluang (Wong Shu Qi)
Risk Level: Medium-High.

Reasoning: A political bellwether for Central Johor. While the incumbent has a good image, the Malay vote bank here has eroded significantly towards Perikatan Nasional (PN). DAP needs a massive Chinese turnout to hold this. If Chinese voters decide to "cold storage" the election (low turnout), PN or BN can win on simple Malay majority support.


3. Perak: The "Arrogance" Penalty
Perak politics is volatile. If the voters' anger is directed specifically at "Arrogance," the loudest leaders become the biggest targets.

P076 Teluk Intan (Nga Kor Ming)
Risk Level: High (Black Swan Event).

Reasoning: Despite his profile, Teluk Intan is a mixed seat with a significant Malay population. Nga Kor Ming wins because he is a "vote magnet" for the Chinese.

The Danger: If the "Taken for Granted" narrative takes hold, voters often want to punish the leader who talks the loudest. If Chinese turnout in Teluk Intan drops by 20%, or if there is a protest vote against his specific style of leadership, combined with PN's dominance in the Malay areas, this could be the most shocking defeat of the election—a "Giant Slayer" moment.

The Mechanism of Defeat: Differential Turnout
The scenario for DAP losing these seats isn't necessarily that Chinese voters suddenly love MCA or PAS. The mechanism is Differential Turnout:
Malay Voters (PN/UMNO): High motivation, high turnout (80%+) driven by identity politics.
Chinese Voters (DAP Base): Disenchantment, apathy, low turnout (dropping to ~55%).


The Conclusion:
In mixed seats, DAP’s arrogance is subsidized by high Chinese voter turnout. Once that subsidy is removed—because voters feel taken for granted—the debt becomes due, and the seat is lost.

your analysis didn't assume if PHBN work together

This post has been edited by ipohps3: Nov 30 2025, 12:34 PM

Grok 4.1 :

Tanjong Pahat (Johor): Marginal DAP win (majority ~1,500 in GE15); rising PN challenge amid anti-federal sentiment post-Sabah.


Kota Raja (Selangor): Tight DAP hold (majority ~2,000); PN surge in urban Malay areas.


Indera Kajang (Selangor): Close contest (majority ~3,000); local issues eroding Chinese support.


Pulai (Johor): By-election vulnerability; PN gained ground in 2023.


Bakri (Johor): Narrow margin (~4,000); similar Johor anti-PH wave risks.

Vote transfer is a myth for DAP seats. Chinese will vote for UMNO to stop Green Wave, but Malays will NOT vote for DAP. The math doesn't work both ways. The leakage to PN will be massive."

when work together there are seats without umno

Past by election show that PH voters will happily vote for UMNO but not another way round.

The rain hadn’t stopped, but the neon in Kota Kinabalu burned brighter than ever. Sharp, cold, relentless. And so did the taste of defeat. DAP… gone. Wiped out like chalk on a blackboard, like a careless wave dragging sand back into the sea. Every seat, every hope, evaporated.
I lit a cigarette, even though the smoke never helped. It never did. The air stank of old promises and newer lies. A Malaya chauvinist party grinned in the papers, claiming the tide. But I knew better. The truth had teeth, even if they refused to show them: the people had spoken.
I took a sip of bitter coffee. Democracy wasn’t clean. Democracy wasn’t polite. But it sure as hell was real. And sometimes, the only thing you could do was watch the wipeout, listen to the surf of chaos, and wonder why anyone ever thought it was their turn to write the ending.

The guitars of Wipeout screamed through my headphones. Wild, reckless, untamed. Like Sabah. And like that, the story went on...

TLDR

This is state election

Sabahan kick DAP out of Sabah, but parliament wise still inconclusive

Don't pancut awal PN

The info is not even correct:
1)Tanjong Pahat and Indera Kajang aren't even real seats.

2) Kota Raja is won by Amanah not DAP, and by a huge majority (70k+ votes).

3) DAP won Bakri by more than 19k votes majority.

This post has been edited by aeonbig: Nov 30 2025, 04:19 PM

penang soon

i will vote for muda, saddick numba wan!!!

I changed constituency just coz i don’t wanna have DAP as one of my voting choices.

I think DAP Sarawak should be shaking first.