WITH the 17th Sabah General Election just days away, voter sentiment is beginning to reveal the likely trajectory of the contest.

Former Parti Cinta Sabah (PCS) Secretary‑General Mohd Ustar Abdul Ghani said a mix of national issues, domestic priorities, political affiliation, and local concerns are shaping electoral outcomes, with voting patterns strongly influenced by urban, suburban, and rural constituencies.

Gauging from the mood on the ground and recent campaigning, it seems the state’s local mainstream political parties remain firmly in contention to form the next government, contrary to earlier predictions of a national party surge.

Political observers predict that leaders of Warisan, GRS, STAR, UPKO, and UMNO are likely to retain their respective seats.

Parti Bersatu Sabah’s President, Joachim Gunsalam, however, faces stiff competition from a PKDM candidate in Kundasang, with the outcome to be confirmed on polling day.

Warisan is expected to maintain its stronghold along Sabah’s east coast and is predicted to make inroads into constituencies previously held by UMNO and GRS.

In certain Chinese-majority constituencies, Warisan appears to have gained traction, potentially capturing seats formerly held by the PH-DAP alliance.

Overall, Warisan is projected to secure 26 seats across urban, suburban, and rural areas.

Mohd Ustar told the Jesselton Times today that he expects GRS and UMNO to retain most of their existing seats, though some losses are anticipated.

In 2020, GRS won 11 constituencies and UMNO 14; current projections suggest GRS may drop to eight seats, while UMNO could fall to nine.

Analysts also anticipate a vote swing in at least 16 constituencies, particularly in the Momogun heartland, which may benefit PKDM, potentially granting it five seats.

Chinese-majority constituencies are showing shifting allegiances, with voters increasingly inclined to “join the ship,” a reference to Warisan.

Eight constituencies previously divided between DAP and PKR—six for DAP, two for PKR—are likely to see changes as campaigning concludes.

Despite these trends, 23 constituencies remain highly unpredictable.

These include Chinese-majority areas such as Api-Api, Luyang, Sri Tanjong, Elopura, and Merotai, where incumbent Saifuddin Hatta will face Datuk Seri Anwar Ibrahim’s handpicked candidate, Ruji Ubi.

Warisan will contest 14 of these volatile constituencies against GRS, PKDM, or PH. Winning at least 13 of these seats is crucial for Warisan to secure a simple majority; otherwise, a hung assembly—and potentially a unity government—looms.

Among the mainstream parties, PBS and STAR face particularly difficult prospects.

PBS, which previously won seven constituencies, is predicted to lose Tamparuli, Kiulu, and Matunggong to PKDM, with Lumadan expected to fall to Warisan.

Kundasang, Telupid, and Tandek remain uncertain, potentially going to PKDM, GRS, or UPKO. STAR, holding six seats, may retain Tambunan, but Paginatan is projected to go to PKDM and Liawan to Warisan, while Bingkor, Tulid, and Sook remain closely contested.

UPKO’s Ewon Benedick is expected to win Kadamaian, while Wilfred Madius Tangau faces a challenging contest in Tamparuli against PKDM.

The much-discussed “Black Wave” has largely failed to materialize, analysts said.

Verdon Bahanda is expected to mount a fierce contest in Tanjong Kapor against a Warisan candidate, but other predictions suggest limited success.

Ultimately, Sabahans appear determined to elect a government capable of delivering dynamic and efficient leadership over the next five years.

Whether the ideals of “Sabah for Sabahans” or “Sabah First” will resonate sufficiently with voters will only be revealed on 29 November 2025.

Current projections indicate Warisan securing 26 seats, UMNO nine, GRS eight, PKDM five, STAR one, and UPKO one.

The outcomes of 23 constituencies remain uncertain, and the final tally will determine whether a single-party majority government emerges or a coalition becomes necessary. - November 26, 2025

https://www.thevibes.com/articles/opinion/1...d-uncertainties

PN?

tak kira siapa menang, songlap tetap songlap

don't underestimate black wave oh, at Sabah they look at personal rather than party

usukan can Munirah win?

landslide warisan

diu.. 2020 also like that.

manatau karam

Happy to see rocket get crash landing

jej would be funny if keruak kalah lagi

Yup, it is easier to buy the policitians than to win the hearts of the Rakyat.
#Cash.is.king.cium.tangan!
#ApaMaluBossKu!

DAP=0

What exactly is this Black Wave?

Bribe is king

Go go go

Yitu rocket guna logo kapal then jump ship kemudian kiss2 with hajiji topkek

This time if they can win then it’s solid

Independent candidates who fights for Sabah for Sabahan. They won quite a lot of seats in last state elections. 3rd force for Sabahans. We need those movements for independent candidates for west Malaysia as well!

I think this time no rocket. All use PH logo.

Verdon very solid on works & speech at the moment.

Hopefully he will be the next cm

Just came back from Sabah

Damn giler PH punya ads in KK area

That Phoong punya macai put in Luyang kek

This post has been edited by DogeGamingPRO: Nov 26 2025, 07:39 PM

Back then, PH was still allied with Warisan, so of course they could win. This time, it’s likely Warisan will suffer a major loss though they might still manage to win a few seats. The movements would only work if the voters are highly educated.

News from across the sea says the SecPol and Albert issue has some effects in swaying to Warisan, but not by much. Expect another "bombshell" in next 48 hours to sway more voters away from GRS + PH.

Chinese voters are the FD of DAP

I wouldnt be that bold. They might keep all, or lose a bit.

Dunno who he is. But is sure intention know who will form next Sabah gov and where PH stands, after all the so called not guilty, blurry BS, just to hold onto power.

Let’s see. A lot people is saying Warisan will win many seats this time.

Only if they are real statesmen. Otherwise it's easier to buy them over.

Not this time around. Sentiments are different. DAP is still Malaya party.

Maybe 1

I'm astonished that pipul still follow Sabahan elections or take them seriously. Easterners like to make the most noise yet time & again always end up getting screwed by the politicos.

Happy voting but I'm abit iffy on the Malaya this Sabah first stance

Cos the past govt is GRS (previously Bersatu/UMNO Sabah) dominated with UMNO Sabah and STAR in the mix.

The one before that was Warisan dominant

How much influence really did peninsula malaysia had on those administration

Lead by Datuk Verdon who won independently at Kudat Parliament seat, his family Bahanda family is a strong polical family at Sabah.

Read this if u know how to read chinese



Not this round anymore

This is not my prediction
Took it from musli oli facebook

https://www.facebook.com/share/17SNF8kKVt/?mibextid=wwXIfr

lol cannot la, for Warisan to win even 5–6 seats would already be a miracle.

sabah is just like lebanon, so many ethnics, factions and political party and everyone is equally strong

suluk/tausug/bugis/bajao/tagalog factions

sungai/idaan/murut factions

malay/dusun/brunei/bisaya/kedayan factions

dusun/kadazan/murut/chinese factions

chinese/wm chinese factions



This post has been edited by TreyLey: Nov 26 2025, 10:44 PM

We revisit your statement on 30th.

I just checked the registered voters in the constituencies Warisan previously won and the numbers have increased by at least 60–70%.

I think winning even 5–6 seats is very unlikely and there’s a real worry they could lose all like Pejuang. Even in Senallang, Shafie is 50-50 to lose, similar to how Ahmad Faizal lost in Tambun.

Verdon is getting stronger day by day.

is a force to reckon.

some said they are strong family at Kudat with businesses

if not mistaken is ex-bn. ex-glc head as well

kudat is a sibeh small town, u can go nowhere if based in kudat.

wow so confident nampak

so confident

about tree fiddy. kek

Next govt will also be local party dominant mark my words.

Things change good, but if stay the same don't play the Malaya card liao lor

Lam Tin now lawyer, professional ai prompter, political commentator and now statistician kek