Canada Is Entering a Recession and Will Soon Bleed Another 100k Jobs: TD Chief Economist
https://www.theglobeandmail.com/investing/m...er-100000-jobs/

The S&P/TSX Composite Index on Tuesday closed above 26,000 for the first time, marking its tenth straight day of gains, as valuations continue to expand despite trade uncertainties that threaten the economy.
However, this resilience in the stock market may soon fade as the effects of tariffs take hold and economic conditions deteriorate.
Toronto-Dominion Bank chief economist Beata Caranci warns that Canada will enter a recession this year, calling for negative GDP growth in the second and third quarters.

On May 15, I spoke with Ms. Caranci, who shared her outlook on the economy, tariffs and future potential trade deals.
You calculate current tariffs on Canada to be around 12 per cent and see the effective tariff rate falling to around 5 per cent by year end. In late 2026, you believe a new USMCA deal may be reached, lowering the average tariff rate to 2.5 per cent for Canadian exporters.
For Canada, the presumption is that companies will increasingly apply to have their products qualify under USMCA, which are exempted from tariffs right now. We have the current effective tariff rate with the U.S. of about 12 per cent because steel, aluminum and all non-USMCA compliant goods are at 25 per cent. So, as more companies put in the effort to get that paperwork in and qualify, the better it will be. That presumes USMCA qualified products will stay exempted, but we don’t know if that will remain the case.

If your tariff predictions are correct, what impact might they have on the Canadian economy?

We’re very worried that we’re going to be in a formal recession in the second and third quarters and that we can see perhaps another 100,000 jobs lost. We’ve already had over 70,000 lost in the private sector in two months.

So, the concern for Canada is that negative sentiment has directly correlated to the hard data, so sentiment is manifesting quickly in the outcomes. In the U.S., you see very negative sentiment, but the economy is holding up quite reasonably, and in Canada, that’s not the case.
The housing market is a good example. The housing market has always been Canada’s go-to when you want to stoke growth. You would not just get the sales bump but that would lead to purchases of household furnishings and other things in the retail sector, and it would lead to renovation activity. So, you would get this 1,2,3 economic push. We’re getting none of those drivers. Nothing’s coming through, even with 100 basis points of cuts, sales are going in reverse. You’ve had sales deteriorate, they’re down 20 per cent since November, even though the Bank of Canada has cut interest rates by 100 basis points.

Indonesia 20k workers from textile giants already national problem.

Canada 100k going jobless?

Most of them which migrated to Kanada are either through organized human trafficking or from the recent purged by Trump's government from south.

Unlikely they are all from rich elite oligarchs families from India.