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 Legacy Automakers are houses of cards, Signs have started

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TSEnergyAnalyst
post Aug 24 2024, 08:55 AM

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https://www.autoevolution.com/news/no-buzz-...ver-238839.html



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This post has been edited by EnergyAnalyst: Aug 24 2024, 08:56 AM
TSEnergyAnalyst
post Aug 24 2024, 09:06 AM

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https://bernama.com/en/world/news.php?id=2331154



https://www.thestar.com.my/business/busines...vices-employees


General Motors said Monday it is laying off more than 1,000 salaried employees at its software and service units worldwide.

GM, confirming the layoffs initially reported by CNBC, said in a statement that "as we build GM’s future, we must simplify for speed and excellence, make bold choices, and prioritize the investments that will have the greatest impact."

CNBC said the job cuts include roughly 600 jobs at GM’s tech campus near Detroit. - Reuters

TSEnergyAnalyst
post Aug 24 2024, 09:09 AM

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https://www.cnbc.com/2024/08/23/ford-ev-str...aller-cars.html

DETROIT – Ford Motor's profit engine for decades has been large trucks and SUVs in the U.S. So it might surprise investors that the automaker believes its new path to profitability for electric vehicles will first be led by smaller, more affordable vehicles.

The new plan is an "insurance policy" for the automaker to be able to expand its growingly popular hybrid models and create more affordable EVs that it believes will deliver a more capital-efficient, profitable electric vehicle business for the company and investors, according to Marin Gjaja, Ford's chief operating officer for its Model e EV unit.
TSEnergyAnalyst
post Sep 1 2024, 09:55 AM

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TSEnergyAnalyst
post Sep 1 2024, 10:02 AM

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This post has been edited by EnergyAnalyst: Sep 1 2024, 10:02 AM
hksgmy
post Sep 1 2024, 10:48 AM

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SUSSihambodoh
post Sep 1 2024, 10:50 AM

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This probably has more to do with the weakening global economy than anything else
hksgmy
post Sep 1 2024, 01:46 PM

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QUOTE(Sihambodoh @ Sep 1 2024, 10:50 AM)
This probably has more to do with the weakening global economy than anything else
*
Also because of the EV revolution and to a certain extent China’s cheap exports flooding the markets. At the end of the day, most people who buy cars buy them for practical reasons - cheap, can get from point A to B, relatively reliable - not many will buy for driving dynamics and handling and engine horsepower and wheel torque.
constant_weight
post Sep 1 2024, 09:23 PM

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QUOTE(hksgmy @ Sep 1 2024, 01:46 PM)
Also because of the EV revolution and to a certain extent China’s cheap exports flooding the markets. At the end of the day, most people who buy cars buy them for practical reasons - cheap, can get from point A to B, relatively reliable - not many will buy for driving dynamics and handling and engine horsepower and wheel torque.
*
EV horsepower and torque are cheap.

The problem with China EV especially the lower cost options, the chassis is weak. The horsepower is overwhelming the chassis, suspension, which is dangerous for non trained driver.

Secondly, the thermal management also not for sustainable high power output.

At China, there is peak output + 30min sustainable nominal output on the door sticker. But average consumer don't know where to look, and car makers also keep quiet about that.

Porsche is actually the honest one that quote nominal figures + peak during overboost.
Also Hyundai Ionic 5N can outlast Taycan base/4/4S in track endurance battery/motor/brake by large margin. That's mind blowing thermal management.
*Not sure if Turbo get more thermal capacity than the lower Taycan trim.

China EV, so far Zeekr 001 FR is the only one with sustainable thermal management that is in production.

hksgmy
post Sep 1 2024, 09:48 PM

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QUOTE(constant_weight @ Sep 1 2024, 09:23 PM)
EV horsepower and torque are cheap.

The problem with China EV especially the lower cost options, the chassis is weak. The horsepower is overwhelming the chassis, suspension, which is dangerous for non trained driver.

Secondly, the thermal management also not for sustainable high power output.

At China, there is peak output + 30min sustainable nominal output on the door sticker. But average consumer don't know where to look, and car makers also keep quiet about that.

Porsche is actually the honest one that quote nominal figures + peak during overboost.
Also Hyundai Ionic 5N can outlast Taycan base/4/4S in track endurance battery/motor/brake by large margin. That's mind blowing thermal management.
*Not sure if Turbo get more thermal capacity than the lower Taycan trim.

China EV, so far Zeekr 001 FR is the only one with sustainable thermal management that is in production.
*
That's a very interesting point you raised, which is one which I personally felt to be true - in essence, the legacy automakers, even the big names, Mercedes, Porsche (and to a lesser extent, BMW) are facing problems with their EV platforms, and relatively newer companies, like the ones you mentioned (Hyundai in particular) are making better EV cars in terms of range, driving dynamics etc. What's missing is the badge prestige, and sooner or later, even that will be eroded by the newer upstarts.

In fact, I already feel that Mercedes is slowly but surely losing the brand's exclusiveness and prestige.

Ah well, interesting times we live in.
netmatrix
post Sep 1 2024, 10:00 PM

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Toyota Hybrid sales are getting better in USA. Because there are a few key things that EV still cannot fulfill.


TSEnergyAnalyst
post Sep 3 2024, 01:42 PM

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https://www.nytimes.com/2024/09/02/business...n%20competitors.
QUOTE
Volkswagen warned on Monday that it would consider closing factories in Germany for the first time in its 87-year history and end a decades-old guarantee of job security for workers, as it faces profitability problems amid increasing pressure from Asian competitors.

The company said in a statement that the measures were meant to shore up its namesake brand, but it declined to provide any details.

“In the current situation, even plant closures at vehicle production and component sites can no longer be ruled out without swift countermeasures,” the company said. “The situation is extremely tense and cannot be resolved through simple cost-cutting measures.”



QUOTE
Volkswagen warns of plant closures in Germany, citing ‘extremely tense’ situation
Published Mon, Sep 2 20249:56 AM EDTUpdated Mon, Sep 2 202412:26 PM EDT
thumbnail
Sam Meredith

Key Points
*German carmaker Volkswagen on Monday warned it will no longer be able to rule out plant closures in the country, citing the specter of major cost-cutting measures in order to “future-proof” the company.

*Volkswagen said it felt compelled to bring an end to its employment protection agreement — a job security program that has been in place since 1994 — in order to secure “urgently needed structural adjustments.”

*“The situation is extremely tense and cannot be resolved through simple cost-cutting measures,” VW brand CEO Thomas Schäfer said in a statement.
https://www.cnbc.com/2024/09/02/volkswagen-...ting-drive.html


TSEnergyAnalyst
post Sep 4 2024, 09:25 AM

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https://fortune.com/europe/2024/09/03/germa...exit-recession/

Germany in crisis: Intel and Volkswagen mull a multibillion-dollar withdrawal from the country
TSEnergyAnalyst
post Sep 4 2024, 10:24 AM

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https://theedgemalaysia.com/node/725377


Toyota, Maruti launch marketing drive for hybrids in key Indian state
By Saurabh Sharma & Aditya Kalra / Reuters
03 Sep 2024, 06:20 pm

QUOTE
LUCKNOW, India (Sept 3): From Instagram ads to telesales, Japanese automakers Toyota and Maruti Suzuki are going all out to market their hybrid cars in the most populous Indian state of Uttar Pradesh, aiming to cash in on tax waivers that upset many of their rivals.

The waivers have split India's auto industry, with Tata Motors, Mahindra and Mahindra and Hyundai  arguing their sales of pure electric cars will suffer. Their lobbying to reverse the July decision failed last month and they now fear other states might follow suit.

At the Sunny Toyota showroom in Uttar Pradesh's capital of Lucknow, salespeople have been tasked to call customers who visited in the last six months to tell them about the benefits of hybrid tax waivers that will help them save US$15,800 (RM68,653) on the luxury Toyota Vellfire model and US$5,200 on its Camry sedan.

"Save big .... Order now and get your hybrid vehicle delivered right at your doorstep," said an Instagram ad by the dealer.

The campaign comes after a rare lobbying win by Toyota to get the state — which accounts for a tenth of India's car sales — to allow tax waivers on sale of hybrid cars, leading to roughly 10% in savings.

India imposes a federal tax of 5% on electric vehicles (EVs) while hybrids are taxed at 43%, just below the 48% for gasoline cars, but state taxes are extra and determined by local governments.

Toyota has globally focused more on hybrids — which combine gasoline engines and batteries — than EVs. That strategy could pay off as worries about charging infrastructure and high prices curb demand for EVs globally, while sales of hybrids pick up.

In Uttar Pradesh, six salespeople for Toyota and Maruti Suzuki — which also supports the waivers — said hybrid enquires were rising and they had been asked by the companies to increase sales.

"We have been asked to sell a minimum of 250 cars in a month. There is a lot of pressure. We are trying to shift all sales to hybrids," a Maruti salesperson said.

Toyota did not respond to a request for comment.

Rahul Bharti, executive director for corporate affairs at Maruti, said its showroom enquiries had "nearly doubled since the benefits have been effected" for hybrids.

Online and WhatsApp ads reviewed by Reuters show dealerships are using taglines including: "Enjoy the nil road tax offer" and "Say Good Bye to Diesel".

At the Sunny Toyota dealership which Reuters visited, salespeople were discussing approaching all customers who were keen to buy gasoline or diesel variants and might now be tempted to buy more expensive hybrid cars given the tax waiver.

Some dealers are advising customers to move quickly.

"No one knows how long the scheme would run," said Praveen Saxena, a sales manager at a Toyota showroom in Kanpur city in the state, adding his hybrid car sales rose 50% after the tax waivers.

KS Dhatwalia, a former Indian government official, chose to buy a new Toyota hybrid Hyryder, partly because of tax benefits.

"Hybrids are less polluting and there was an additional tax saving too," he said.


Aggressive much Toyota via Maruti Suzuki with its hybrid....in India

This post has been edited by EnergyAnalyst: Sep 4 2024, 10:25 AM
TSEnergyAnalyst
post Sep 5 2024, 09:30 AM

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VW warns time running out as clashes with workers over cuts
By Reuters - September 4, 2024 @ 6:31pm

WOLFSBURG: Volkswagen has "one, maybe two" years to turn its main car brand around, the automaker's finance chief said on Wednesday, trying to convince workers at a stormy meeting to back plans for deep cost cuts, including German plant closures.

Delayed for several minutes as staff whistled and shouted "Auf Wiedersehen" - German for 'goodbye' - when he took to the stage, Arno Antlitz appealed to the joint responsibility of staff and management to cut spending if the brand is to survive the shift to electric cars.

To a packed hall of 16,000 workers and another 5,000 outside watching on a screen, Antlitz said Europe's car market had shrunk after the pandemic and the company was facing a shortfall in demand of about 500,000 cars, equivalent to about two plants.

"The market is just not there," he told the meeting at Volkswagen's Wolfsburg headquarters. He added he did not expect sales to recover and that the core VW brand had "one, maybe two" years to cut spending and adjust its output.

In response, works council chief Daniela Cavallo said management had "massively damaged trust", and compared its threat to close plants to a "declaration of bankruptcy."


Cavallo urged CEO Oliver Blume, who was not scheduled to give a speech, to address staff and explain why the group was prioritising spending on a 5-billion-euro software partnership with U.S. start-up Rivian over protecting German jobs.


The prospect of site closures at one of Germany's most storied companies has raised more red flags for Europe's largest economy, which is battling anaemic growth, weaker export demand, higher costs and competition from abroad.

Fresh from a drubbing in regional elections that saw a surge in far-right support, Chancellor Olaf Scholz has made Volkswagen a top priority and coordinated with company executives and union members, a source familiar with the matter said.

Labour Minister Hubertus Heil promised support, telling RTL/ntv that "Germany must remain a strong car country." But he did not specify what kind of support and said the company must first do its job to secure employment and prevent site closures.

Scholz's cabinet was expected on Wednesday to agree proposed measures for tax reductions to boost demand for EVs, which has lagged expectations.

Underscoring the tough backdrop, business sentiment in the German automotive industry slid further into negative territory in August, the Ifo economic institute said on Wednesday.

Volkswagen, whose brands also include Audi, SEAT and Skoda, said on Monday it was considering closing factories in Germany and ending a decades-old job guarantee at six of its plants in a drive to deepen a 10 billion euro (US$11 billion) cost-cutting plan. It is targeting a 6.5% profit margin at the VW brand by 2026, up from 2.3 per cent in the first six months of this year.

Unions and Volkswagen management in Germany are due to negotiate over a wage increase in October, but labour representatives want to pull that forward and have a wide-ranging discussion on the carmaker's options, according to Thomas Knabel, representative for the IG Metall union at Volkswagen's Zwickau plant.

But the union, one of Germany's mightiest labour groups with seats on Volkswagen's supervisory board, cannot imagine starting negotiations without the company taking its threat to close down plants off the table, he warned in an interview.

"We need to agree on the rules of the game," he said.

While management laid blame for its financial woes on the worsening economic environment in Germany and new competitors entering the market, labour representatives said the carmaker's production strategy was inefficient and decision-makers had been too slow in investing to produce a mass-market electric vehicle.

Whatever the cause, the company must make quick decisions about where to cut costs, investors and analysts said - a challenging task for a firm of its size and with a complex power structure formed over its 87-year history.

"In difficult times, management and unions have an ability to get to consensus," Jefferies analyst Philippe Houchois said. "But it's not going to be smooth."[/QUOTE]

source: https://www.nst.com.my/business/corporate/2...rkers-over-cuts[QUOTE]
TSEnergyAnalyst
post Sep 5 2024, 09:33 AM

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https://www.kedglobal.com/electric-vehicles...ked202409020015
QUOTE
Toyota chairman to visit Seoul, discuss hydrogen cars with Hyundai’s Chung
Akio Toyoda is coming to Korea on Chung Euisun's invitation, to talk over a shift in strategy from competition to collaboration

...Japan’s Toyota is the world’s biggest vehicle seller and Hyundai’s two automaking units together rank third in terms of volume.

The two companies have fiercely competed to gain a greater share of the future mobility sector, including electric vehicles and hydrogen fuel cell EVs (FCEVs).

In Seoul, the two leaders are expected to declare a business strategy shift from competition to collaboration, sources said...


I bet no one see this coming.... tongue.gif

especially considering the rivalry....

in North America: Aggressive Hyundai EV plan aims to be Toyota's worst nightmare
The South Korean automaker is taking on Toyota's bread-and-butter, and some more.
https://www.thestreet.com/electric-vehicles...worst-nightmare

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AND in india:

https://sg.finance.yahoo.com/news/hyundai-t...-103052934.html

Hyundai, Tata, others lobby Indian state against hybrid support as Toyota rivalry deepens


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This post has been edited by EnergyAnalyst: Sep 5 2024, 09:44 AM
TSEnergyAnalyst
post Sep 7 2024, 07:29 AM

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https://www.cnbc.com/2024/09/06/once-the-en...ng-economy.html


Once the envy of the world, Germany’s car brands now weigh heavily on its struggling economy

PUBLISHED FRI, SEP 6 20241:11 AM
thumbnail
Sophie Kiderlin
@IN/SOPHIE-KIDERLIN-B327B914A/
@SKIDERLIN

KEY POINTS

Germany’s car industry was once recognized around the world for its high-quality, innovative internal combustion engine cars. But things have changed since then.

The industry is facing a range of issues, from regulation to macroeconomics, China and EVs.

Issues in the automotive sector may also have spill over effects onto the wider German economy, which has been struggling for some time now.

TSEnergyAnalyst
post Sep 7 2024, 08:01 AM

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https://cleantechnica.com/2024/09/05/is-byd...r-in-the-world/


Is BYD Going To Become The Largest Automaker In The World?

...We also have had stories on the potential crisis coming Toyota’s way, and the fact that Toyota is even relying on BYD tech for its EVs in China. Given recent decades, it’s hard to not see Toyota at the top of the auto charts, but trends imply that Toyota could be on the way down as BYD is on the way up. BYD is setting foot in more and more markets around the globe, and is surely looking to scale up sales in those countries as the “best value for money” provider of high quality but cheap electric vehicles. Nothing really comes to mind to stop me from thinking BYD is well on its way to becoming “the next Toyota.” And if BYD is the next Toyota, that implies BYD will become the largest automaker in the world.

Convince me otherwise. What arguments are there, really, to counter this?

Oh yeah, and BYD already has its own ocean shipping vessels and is a leader in battery production! The company is vertically integrated like no other.
TSEnergyAnalyst
post Sep 7 2024, 08:54 AM

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https://insideevs.com/news/732873/ev-sales-...morgan-stanley/


The EV Slowdown Will Last Another 12-18 Months, Analysts Say

After that, plan for a "resurgence"—especially if traditional automakers ink deals with EV startups and Chinese firms.
EV sales

InsideEVs
Sep 6, 2024 at 5:00pm ET

By: Tim Levin
Following years of explosive growth, big promises and a healthy dose of hype, the transition to electric vehicles—particularly in the U.S.—has hit some turbulence. Car companies like Toyota, Ford and Volvo are scaling back their electric plans in the face of uneven consumer demand. And in some ways it all makes sense given how adoption of a new technology typically works out; it’s not always up and to the right, even if that’s the general trajectory.


In a new report out this week, Morgan Stanley's auto-industry analysts say to expect the global EV slowdown to persist another 12-18 months. Around 2027, however, they expect a “resurgence” in EV momentum.

What’s important to note about this “slowdown” is that it’s a drop in the rate of growth—not a decline in overall sales. Amid all the gloomy headlines, it’s easy to miss that more and more people are buying EVs. Morgan Stanley notes that the world is headed for yet another record year of electric sales. The bank’s analysts have an interesting take on what’s causing the slowdown and the keys to fixing it—maybe a Ford/Xpeng collab?—so let’s dive in deeper.


First off: the numbers. Between 2024 and 2026, Morgan Stanley’s autos team now projects that EV sales as a percentage of global car sales will grow from 14% to 17%—3% less than its prior estimates. After that, though, EV sales growth should reaccelerate, hitting an estimated 32% of the global market in 2030. (That’s 8% less than the bank’s analysts previously projected.)

So, EV sales should still climb over the next few years, just not as ferociously as before. There are many intertwined reasons that’s happening, the analysts say.

Why EV Sales Growth Is Slowing Down
Much of the shortfall in EV volume will stem from markets like the U.S. and Europe, where EV affordability and tariffs against Chinese manufacturers “remain key gating factors to EV adoption,” the bank says. EV prices in those markets are 20-30% higher than their combustion counterparts, the analysts note. High interest rates aren’t helping either.


On top of that, global automakers are pumping the brakes on their largely unprofitable EV investments. Most companies making EVs have invested a huge amount in R&D and new production lines, but haven’t hit the economies of scale necessary to be in the black. So they’re doubling down on combustion.

A new boom in demand for hybrids and plug-in hybrids (PHEVs), the analysts say, is also to blame. They’re cheaper and easier to live with than full EVs, in many cases, and threaten to cannibalize EV sales in coming years. Given the surge in PHEV sales over the last year, Morgan Stanley bumped its estimate for global PHEV penetration to 14% by 2030, 3.5% higher than its prior estimate.

How Will EV Sales Bounce Back?
So, what’s the key to an EV rebound? In general, industry watchers point to more confidence-inspiring charging infrastructure, lower vehicle prices and a wider variety of appealing EV options. The Morgan Stanley team argues something different—that the future health of the EV industry hinges on new collaborations between EV companies and established automakers, and especially between Chinese and Western manufacturers.


In other words, Ford ought to strike a deal with China’s Xpeng. Or maybe General Motors should team up with Lucid or Li Auto.

“[I]ncreasing collaboration among legacy OEMs and EV players, evidenced by VW-XPeng, Stellantis-Leap, and VW-Rivian, could help reignite interest in global EV adoption,” the report says.



Legacy automakers, the analysts say, benefit from lots of manufacturing capacity, developed global supply chains, strong brands and access to capital. EV players have the upper hand when it comes to software, electrical architectures (which are becoming increasingly important), driver-assistance tech and technological innovation more broadly. American and European automakers are struggling to produce affordable EVs profitably. Chinese manufacturers, aided by a plethora of government subsidies, are known for blistering development cycles, advanced technology and low manufacturing costs. But tariffs threaten to hinder their advance into huge Western markets.

All of this makes joint ventures look like a win-win, the analysts say. And it’s already happening. The huge Volkswagen Group recently inked a multi-billion-dollar deal with Rivian to leverage the startup’s vehicle software and electrical architectures. The big question is: Would the U.S. government let joint Chinese-American ventures build EVs in the U.S. despite geopolitical tensions? After all, the U.S. plans to slap a 100% tariff on Chinese-made EVs.

The Morgan Stanley analysts say there’s no other choice: “We think joining hands with China's EV ecosystem has become a prerequisite to manufacturing affordable EVs in the US, rather than being optional.”

Contact the author: tim.levin@insideevs.com
TSEnergyAnalyst
post Sep 11 2024, 10:32 AM

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