No scientific statistical data, but the data or proof that i got are from engine builders. Some engines came in with full servicing from SC with the recommended mileage intervals but when open up there are some sludge in critical parts of the engine and generally more wears compared to those that changes oil earliers. Not sayang your engine will rosak, just it will wear out faster.
Prime suspect is the carbon buildup around the piston rings and oil return galeries on the piston which finally will cause the rings to jammed and slowly wear out cylinder walls after few k kms.

Even world expert japan engine builders says so.

Again, if u wan to use your car for the manufacturers intended use timespan/ mileage, then no problem your car will last till then if u follow strictly their recommendations.

But if u wan to keep it longer and sayang your engine then change earlier.

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To add on, not all cars will experience the same wear. It fully depends on usage also like if the car always long distance and doesnt get stuck in traffic, these generally have the lowest wears.
However those with over 10k km oil changes will have higher risk of developing carbons even when the owners care for the car, as shown by many engine builders when they open up to inspect the engines.
5k km oil changes have no carbon build up issues if taken care of right.