Any idea how long it will take to clear off the current surplus? One thing I'm curious, when China cancels their earlier contract at 3000+ level, do they need to pay any compensation or is it normal for any buyer to purchase and cancel at their perogative?
For CHGS investment, it is meant for risk adverse investors who wish to have regular yearly income with higher interest than FD/Amanah saham, while at the same time grow their initial capital every year to hedge against inflation with capital protection. It is similar to property investment except that the rental income is guaranteed every year & you don't have to look for tenant or pay land tax, mantenence, agent fees etc. Since the returns are certain, it can be used as an addition to regular retirement income, childrens education, holiday income etc. So in terms of portfolio spread, CHGS will fall into the area of your FD/AmanahSaham/Insurance spread, while you may have another portion for other speculative investments (shares, currency, unit trust, real commodity trading).
Comparison for RM320k
CHGS dividens (8-17%)
year 1 to year 3 - RM25,600pa / RM2,133pm
year 4 onwards - RM38,400pa / RM3,200pm (at conservative 12% average)
Capital growth At maturity - RM1,1-1.5 million +/- 400% (from sale of land), RM2.4-3 million +/- 800-1000%(including dividens)
FD at 3.75%
year 1-24 - RM12,000pa / RM1000pm
Capital At maturity - RM320k (original investment), RM746k ie. 230% inluding dividens(compounded)
Property (single story house in PJ)
average rental - RM15,000pa (not guaranteed, depends on tenant availability) / RM1250pm (4.7%)
less real estate agent fee, lland tax, maintenance, legal fees etc)
After 20+ years sale - +/- 400% return
less real estate agent fee, legal fees, property gains tax etc
FD at 4.5-5% for 5 years actually. And that is contractually guaranteed. I can spend 25% of my capital now and I
I will get it back. Now think about that, 320K x 5 % = 16,000
that I can use for whatever. Whatever happens, capital is guaranteed. I can, for instance, buy something for Rm16,000 with my credit card tomorrow (that's assuming credit limit is 16K) and not worry about defaulting at all.
I think the returns from CHGS can't be considered certain. "Certain" means "guaranteed" and guaranteed it is not. It all depends on this.. is 3% extra worth the risk?