QUOTE(Michael J. @ Jul 30 2008, 05:42 PM)
Depends on your soil type. Coastal soils are actually quite fertile, especially along the delta regions. However, they are also the perfect breeding ground for ganoderma, which can rapidly kill the oil palms. But the area you are referring to is actually of marginal fertility, so add that with possible ganoderma problems, and you have a pretty bad combination.
Just a few more things to add to your consideration:
(i) What's the average yield per hectare? At 136 stand per ha, you should be getting about 18tonnes per ha for that age profile on coastal soils.
(ii) Is it a low-lying area? Flood prone?
(iii) How's the sanitation of the field? If it is grassy, and the fronds are not stacked properly, you're gonna have a headache bringing it back to shine.
(iv) Could you tell more about the palms themselves? What materials are they from? Are they IOI, Guthrie, Sime, UP, Golden Hope OR any certified seed producers?
(v) Inspect the field: Check the sex ratio. How many male flowers are being produced vs. female flowers. Now the palms are in male cycle, so you need to wait a few more months before the cycle breaks.
(vi) Was the land planted with coconut before? If it was, chances are the ganoderma inocculum is already there, so no point buying it up.
250 acres (100ha) is a pretty sizeable investment. If ever in doubt, it's better to keep on the safe side, especially since you have noted that the palms do not look good. And RM30,000 per acre leasehold is too pricey.
Added on July 30, 2008, 5:47 pmI thought there has been a halt on forest to plantation clearing announced recently? Or does that only apply to East Malaysia?
Hmmm... a rough guide for replanting from old oil palm stands is about RM9,000 per ha. With prices now, you should increase that by another 30% to around RM12,000 per ha. But the total cost till maturity (assuming you do ablation like most major plantations) will cost you another 4-5k per year for a further two years, or a total of around RM22,000 till Year 3 per ha.
Added on July 30, 2008, 6:02 pmLet me put it in this way: Agriculture has always been a low profit venture compared to other industries. With the exception of the cyclical booms, not all agricultural produce will give you good yields.
Certainly is the case with palm oil. Now, prices may look good, but in truth is it over-inflated. We in the industry are not making the "tonnes of money" claimed by many in the media. Because do not forget, other costs have also gone up as well: Fuel, fertilizers, labor, taxes (aka windfall tax....*grumble!*), and disease control. Those in East Malaysia are in a panic actually, as they are seeing their crude profits crashing to about 4-5k per ha recently with all the hikes taking place. 40-50million may seem a lot of earnings, but that is because the land and cultivation costs are charge out over a period of years. In fact, it appears that to recover the initial cost of cultivation, it will take up to the 10th or 11th year before the land and plantings costs are fully paid for with oil palm.
And don't forget to project in futures costs. Would you be able to survive in this venture if CPO prices fall to around RM2200? It really depends on the management of the plantation. A good management team can keep cost down to about RM900-1000 per ha per year. A not so good one would probably incur a RM1500 operation cost yearly.
Take it from the ironman of the palm oil industry:
In good times, anyone can make money from oil palms; it is the bad times that the goats get separated from the sheeps.
Just like in '97-'98.
Hi, Mr Michael J
Thank you for the reply, and it really help for me to decide on my investment. The 250 acres plot of Plantation in Cukai is not an attractive bargain, topping that "not so good looking trees". I can't be wasting time on that now.
My costing figures do tally with your cost of replanting, maintenance, management etc., and as such can I not find my mathematics on an acre of palm average yielding 1 ton of fruit/month @ 550rm (today) to retain a good profit of some 300rm nett per acre per acre to the grower of 100 acres of Palm, considering that:
1) the mill is only 30 km away, that as for transportation of fruits to cost
2) using fertilizers not from Felda (as it cost much more)
3) from maintenance to harvesting of fruits are all subcontracted pro-rated at a cost as determined on the yielding factor.
4) Bank financial charges etc
Total Cost for items 1, 2, 3 and 4 is 250rm. per acre. I am quite satisfy to net a sum of 300rm net per acre/month
Your advise is appreciated and I, owing you a "teh-tarik"
Added on August 1, 2008, 4:46 amQUOTE(Jordy @ Jul 25 2008, 05:34 PM)
I withdrawn and got back only what I paid for during the cooling-off. If I kept it until now, then i could sell at RM7,500 (lower than market) for a quick profit in trading of land, and nothing to do with oil palm yields

But must be one of the early birds, those joined later, maybe the momentum will be slow.
Hi Jordy,
Today, a plot of CHGS is priced 8000rm and all other terms remaining the same as the 5500rm scheme. For the first 3 years, at 5500rm, you are paid 8% and at 8000rm, you will be paid 8% also, but less (-) the prorated 365 days x 3 years in guarantee from the scheme. This was what I understand. Somehow, what interest me is that, what good reasons that make you withdraw from the scheme. This can benefit others who are now interested to invest/or not with the new price of 8000rm scheme.
The overall yearly return from the investment per plot seems reasonable (of course, with strict-proper management), but I do contemplate that at the end, there is no certainty to the VALUE of the invested 8000rm plot. The ASB or similar, too pays to the near percentage as to the yield, but you can expect the invested sum of 8000rm return full after a period of 23 years.
Also, for the interest of new 8000rm or old 5500rm investors, what sort of guarantees that you will be paid yearly, on the maturity of the investment. (considering all the factors MPOB Palm Oil Prices, CPO etc. remains throughout good (e.g. at present level) for 23 years)
Well, Jordy, your reasons please, from your professional point of view. THANKS.
This post has been edited by greenland123: Aug 1 2008, 04:46 AM