I'm going to play the devils advocate here and give a pessimist views on things.
I would only say it's speculation that property market would be good for the next 5 years.
Recently we saw a lot of developments especially in the recent 3 years. Why because our market just recovered and stabilised from the previous hit of recession in 97/98 and the big market downturn in 2000/2001. So it's correct that we're still at the young stage in property development.
But currently because of the young booming market; everyone is into properties thus the current uptrend in property price. Now the question is what would happen in the next 5 years? Maybe within this next 5 years the market is still blooming; but remember that oil price is also riding on the up trend surpassing USD90 per barrel on several occasion and is predicted by year end it would obviously be above USD90 per barrel permanently.
Not to mention we'll become net oil importer in 5 years time.
Thus what would the economy be after the 5 years period? Or are we suggesting that we ride on the trend for 5 years flipping properties to earn fullest returns for the next 5 years to sustain ourself for the next 10 years? Property prices are at all time high currently, so is it really wise to buy property for investment now? But obviously we're expecting it to grow further more. But how much can it grow since it's already at a high price? What's the peak before all tumbles down?
Another factor, is property price is going up at a very fast rate and predicted to grow even faster in the next couple of years; but is our increase in earnings able to keep up with this uprising trend?
Btw, to those that are not in the banking and finance line, you wouldn't believe how much the industry NPL had grown. I.e. lots and lots of ppl are getting into too much debt that they could not handle. That is why also the Government took the initiative to set up AKPK to help those type of ppl from the grasp of financial institutions. Us in this line is expecting US's sub prime crisis to hit us in another 2 years times at the rate of our rising NPLs. Taiwan took a hit 2 years back in year 2005 because financial institutions are offering too much credits to consumers out there; and M'sia market now are recently also aggressive in giving out loans which is also really not a good sign. To those who is able to manage, kudos! but to those who can't I wouldn't advice them getting into debts i.e. leveraging from financial institution in hope for a better return in properties.
Cheers!.........
Property Investment Thread, Share ur ideas/tips/guide/lesson/source
Oct 27 2007, 06:50 PM
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