Huge news today, US tightening loans output.. business are all feeling the crunch, downsizing, unable to expand cuz cant take out good debt to grow business. Borrow and lend becomes more expensive for businesses.

Business loans trickles down to Mortgage loans.. Difficult to get mortgage loans, no more demand for property..

Come to malaysia, condo supply going to be more than demand very soon. Could we see property prices plateau for another 10 years??

If you look at malaysia projected population growth rate the the growth curve is plateauing and we probably will see another 10mil growth in 50 years time. Which is very slow.

They can inflate property demand anytime they want as we are still considered very cheap globally. Just throw in a long stay visa if they buy property over 1 mill. Boom fixed.

Asia is still very much seen as a growth region so Malaysia is well poised if it plays its cards right.

Never think property is a good investment, buy because you want to stay in it.

Well property selection is even more crucial now since the supply is non-stop. It’s not only that the prices will stagnate, you better hope it doesn’t ruin you if you overpaid or were over promised.

If price is the key to boom; poorperly price in Taiping is cheaper than kv, why not invest in Taiping, no visa is needed.

What is more important? Affordable home price or developer profit? Contemporary history show, the higher home price, the lower the disposal income.

Oversupply of property

too many condo at 500k as baseline

Haiya we are a rent seeking nation. It’s in the helang’s best interests for developers to be profitable, continue to build and buy whatever land they release. The entire development process creates many jobs.

High property prices are the byproduct of a healthy economy not the other way round. What’s this to do with Taiping? You can go rear chickens there in your retirement but it’s not the lifestyle for me and many others.

are we a rent seeking nation? i mean for chinese you know la older generation always say why rent and help other ppl serve installment? where u can top up abit and buy it yourself, if later on not staying liao then rent it out lo......
But nowadays younger generation i think it might be very true that they are moving towards renting, reduce commitment, yolo, lifestyle, move out and rent new place if dun like the current etc etc...heck actually they might no need to rent, ah pa ah ma rich rich sponsor car & house lol.

But i agree with you on the development process...building more house even overhang issue not solved due to its 1 of the backbone to support the country's economy and job opportunities.

Rent seeking is a common term used to highlight a lot of our business practices like mandatory bumi equity for foreign enterprises or DBKL selling swathes of leasehold land. It filters through to the rakyats mindset as well hence why this forum exists ie investment property.

Being a life long renter is another thing and one could argue that in most cases it is a superior financial option particularly if your landlord is subsidising you. But no guarantees if it will remain like that forever.

One thing about renting is you can't do much with the house like renovation and stuff, also may need to move house every few years. Not sure if I'm unlucky, having to move 2 times in 3 years because owner sold the place and new owner wants to stay himself. And when you get old say into 70s or 80s it becomes harder to rent as landlord does not prefer too old tenants

Don’t doubt that it is definitely more secure to own your own place. But I’m just providing an alternative view point. I have friends in T20 group who own properties internationally and opt to rent an almost 2 million fully furnished condo in KV for about 4K a month. In this case, does it not pay off to just rent as your loan repayment would be more than double what this rent is. At a certain tier of owner, they are not really worried about ROI and just want a glorified caretaker for their properties.

This is very seldom case, but its a very good idea also, provide lower rental to find people take care the house. Except very good attitude example japan people, its very hard to find a tenants to take care million property, i think most of the time they are just rent to trust worthy relative & friend who needed the space on particular location.

yes, not only 70s - 80s, as long you dont have a good ccris report, some owner already dont want rent to you, so not need to said the retired or unemployed.
Without buying a home, then how to form a family, if form a family by renting the house. Mean expected next generation buying a house for parent? Actually malaysia government have a lot of policy to help people to own a house, as long they are not be so picky. Flat, Apartment, government subsidised home, low cost house, rsku, rumahwip, lppsa, prima, etc. Everyone can own a house even they are not highly paid.

Rental house is only a temporary needed of a space. After working get the document and few year saving, then can start planing to buy a house already.

Property market will only go up even stagnant now

Just see new launches flock of people

Those waiting for crash since 2000 onward have waited 23 years lol

Tell you a funny story. A unit in R22 MK, the Japanese tenants are about to be repatriated and they apologised for it and found new Japanese tenants for the unit. Gotta love them. Just belanja a meal for their efforts.

The expensive own stay places that don’t command high rent like PJ or landed yea might as well get your typical KL yuppie couple.

Before Pandemic & MCO, MK & KLCC CBD actually their rental can feed the instalments. But after mco, once a property rental dropped, its take time to recovery back to the peak season. But of course most of the time, the foreigner who willing to pay high rental is subsidised by their company, so they are just so easy living at highend condo.

Japan people have good attitude on rental house is also due to their country rental Law & regulation. So if you are interested you can watch some malaysian in japan youtuber like Ryuu TV, they have a episode is shooting regarding their finished the contract, and want to leave the property. So during hand over key, they ready make a lot of cleanliness. Not only to avoid owner reduce the deposit, it also to leave a good record for them to find new rental house (but the ryuu they more to his own house afterward).

indeed, thats why my question of really are we a rent seeking nation? malaysia house ownership are consider easy with so much incentive from govt and developers rebates, and properties aren't really expensive compare to other region and with 35years loan tenure and considerably low interest rates. but i guess due to our countries low household income in general, the price of the products that developer launches doesn't match with the demands price range. but no doubt there are always will have renters....people will have various of reason to rents such as nearer to work area, outstation workers, rents for staff etc etc..

You misunderstand how I’m using the terminology.

“Rent-seeking is the act of growing one's existing wealth by manipulating the social or political environment without creating new wealth.[1] Rent-seeking activities have negative effects on the rest of society. They result in reduced economic efficiency through misallocation of resources, reduced wealth creation, lost government revenue, heightened income inequality,[2] risk of growing political bribery, and potential national decline.”

Does this sound familiar? These are one of the words used by international journalists to describe our country.

In a way all landlords are rent seeking as in they are after rental or other passive income. This is different from seeking a rental property.

This post has been edited by Cavatzu: Sep 21 2023, 04:22 PM

oh ok in layman terms means that landlord pursue for rental income. not the whole environment pro towards renting rather then owning property themselves.

Contemporary history show, during the period of rising poorperly price, many feel good but high poorperly price has negative impact on disposable income in the long term.

If locals don't want to buy in Taiping, expect foreigners to cross border to buy in kv?

Poorperly price rise slower than loan interest and expenses incurred or price remain stagant is financial losses. Most of those bought in the last few years are underwater.

Low entry doesn't mean affordable. Buying is one, afford to pay installment is another. For reasons, foreclosures is on the rise.

This post has been edited by icemanfx: Sep 21 2023, 04:47 PM

In a nutshell yes. Our “hot” property investment market is an example of rent seeking behaviour. The policies are there to continually encourage new developments. In a way flooding the market with supply has caused prices to remain stagnant or drop. Which in itself does make it attractive to rent. But only if you know what you’re doing. If you can’t make good productive use of your savings then you’re better off just buying an own stay home.

Those tenants qualified for home loan would buy rather than rent. Only short term expat pay exorbitant rental.

Rental market price is more price elastic. When supply > demand, rental price drop is faster and lower than home price.

To the foreigners perhaps buying in KV is like their version of buying in Taiping 😏. There’s almost no barriers to entry besides floor price for generally well built developments with generous facilities. The question is if it fits into their future goals to do so.

Taiping property is ridiculously priced. More expensive than Ipoh! Buy only if Taiping is where you wanna retire. My property outlook, stable with bargains for the discerning in the sub-sale and auction market. New launches cannot be cheap because of the crazy inflation hitting the world no thanks to the uncertain and hostile geopolitical outlook. At the same time economic outlook will dampen sentiment and folks will be under economic pressure resulting in motivated sellers.

Game changers may include loosening of MM2H and revision of foreign buying rules plus stimulus measures for housing industry.

share price for developers already double for the last two months.... normally share markets will reacted first before real market is moving.... so next year will be golden year for property markets.... if you are long enough in this market and survive through 2008 and Covid.... you should know what im mean.... now is time to accumulate and find a good bargain before too late...

I have seen the property booms due to quantitative easing, easy loan approvals, rising salaries and foreign buyer interest but i can't see any reasons going forward for the next boom though traditionally its time for a recovery post covid.

As if poorperly overhang, liquidity tightening, rising loan interest rate and devaluating RM is immaterial.

is doesn't affect me...

Maybe it is time to divest and plan elsewhere

Unlikely will crash. When covid did not able to crash the property market 3 years ago, I am not sure what will.

Guess we have to live with the fact that property market will never crash. Worst case, it will remains stagnant.

Poorperly is illiquid, price couldn't crash like stock, crypto or commodities. as most bought with leverage, price rise slower than loan interest and expenses incurred is a financial losses.

the fact remains, most of those bought in the last few years are underwater.

Just like any asset class that one bought las 2-3 yrs. Most are under water also. Guess it is a selective market everywhere.

This post has been edited by loyiwei: Sep 23 2023, 11:57 AM

Look at recent auction units, seems to be doing well. Maybe there's a good opportunity for the next cyclical property boom starting next year

Yes. It’s selective market.
Who bought setia Alam bywater series, will laugh to bank cos appreciate 100k above after completion.

No wor.. 2000 to 2012 was the best uptick ever. Who waited since as early as 2000 for a crash?

Highrise, came 2014 onwards only selective buy, avoid affordable blocks within a DO, then more selective (limited) came 2017 with affordable integrated living within same block.

Landed location location, only buy good township dev.

Yeah, you are right, price ain't gonna reverse cheaper monetary with every raw cost more including one's expecting wage hike.

Only the gullible and self contradicting will hope for a price decrease while demanding for wage hike.

Will anything ever gets cheaper over time? Not that i know of

This post has been edited by jojolicia: Sep 23 2023, 06:53 PM

When poorperly price is on uptrend, uuu/bbb claim price to rise forever.

When poorperly price is on downtrend, uuu/BBB claim cyclical boom next year or recover from second half of next year.

This post has been edited by icemanfx: Sep 23 2023, 03:22 PM

I don’t know what your expectations of a crash are. If there is a crash per say then it effectively means your banking system is farked like in China. Malaysia’s case is more like deflation. You compare the wealth accumulation of an average Singaporean who bought properties vs a Malaysian. Very different outcomes not withstanding the penalty laws.

There have been pockets of area where the market value has been reduced by half. Many remained stagnant and some appreciated. For it to appreciate it has to be aspirational meaning the more atas or newly atas areas. The price increases for those are necessary as barrier to entry for peasants.

Are we expecting OPR to maintain next year? Or even drop abit? If drop then definitely will helps property markets. I miss the OPR 1.75% lol so cheap but I guess it won’t be so low unless Covid similar crisis happen shain

Given pmx policy so far, opr is likely to maintain at the current level for the foreseeable future. Inflation rate and RM devaluation is another story.

General consensus is that it should stagnate as they raised the rates so drastically to keep up with US. They need to take a wait and see approach with hard data before raising rates further. Yea of course low interest rates generally mean that you could loan more though I don’t know if it means the property market is hot. There’s still a lot of incoming supply which in a way we are lucky as that is the big bottleneck for many countries which is what has driven their property markets to ridiculous heights.

This post has been edited by Cavatzu: Sep 24 2023, 09:18 AM

Yeah, saw some drastic movements for the big boys in the real estate market. And I can say one difference from back then at 2008 vs now is that banks have a more stringent criteria of getting loans approved, and that equals to setting a higher bar to property ownership.

Got Rumwip, RSKU, etc for staters…

Many big boys are offloading commercial at price significantly lower than a few years ago.

This post has been edited by icemanfx: Sep 24 2023, 06:03 PM

TBH those are solely for own-stay purpose. The rental and selling restriction has made the capital gain almost stagnant. But a good point for those who are looking for just 1st or the only property to stay.

What type of commercial? Shop lot or office ? Is it due to softening of rental for commercial unit?

I also noticed some land transaction in between developers as well. Some active developers like Sunway, Mah Sing is eating up lands. I'm thinking they are planning to develop them in a near future, like 3-5 years time.

US might have another shut down by Oct onwards, and the debt issue remains a time bomb anytime now, this could lead to stock market crash and also affect the sentiment of property market, for those who is looking to buy property for investment, come back after Mar 2024 and check again

Positioning well before Oct-24

i think we should give all foreign worker citizenship, nepal, bangla, myammar etcs... so our ringgit stay in malaysia & they can also bring their whole family to stay here...

For PLC developer to sustain share price, has no choice but to build.

RM is likely to devalue in the foreseeable future.

All in favour of proper property developers building up their land bank. All other operators strayed from their core business cause they thought it was profitable. So many issues and they just don’t have the know how.

A lot of them are cashing in on their land assets to focus on core business which is perhaps wise.

so should hedge with gold? silver? property?

USD, SGD, etc.

A lot of foreign press zooming in on Forest City again as emblematic of structural failure in governance and rampant overbuilding. Even Wall Street Journal. They should add Bandar Malaysia, Kwasa Damansara etc.

This post has been edited by Cavatzu: Sep 25 2023, 09:45 AM

The covid days were the best times for those wanting to pick up "cheap" property. Some buyers still expect properties to be cheap like those days. We can see that the auction prices have also been steadily rising generally as newer launches are getting more pricey or more dense. Crash is not going to happen because if it did it would have happened during covid. Forest city is an anomaly in Malaysia because Malaysian developers know our market and would never have developed and launched so many units at one time. The China developers fuelled by easy credit constructed a lot all at once because the costs were lower when more units built at one time and they misread the demand. Just wondering if they were allowed to launch forest city in PJ, i think they could have killed a lot of smaller developers...

Mammoth is a good example of a local developer that went in over their head. If Country Garden had gotten their hands on that plot game over for Damansara area.

Yea agree prices can’t really go any lower. You are pretty much one of the cheapest in the region already. You try finding a luxury condo in Bangkok or Jakarta.

Materials and labour price rise has zero impact on completed poorperly. why one must buy overpriced new launch and not consider subsale?

How relevant is poorperly price in bkk, sg, pnh, etc to dwellers in kv?

Geez dude we don’t live in a silo. Everything is relative. We all use various metrics for comparison’s sake. Don’t know what job you do if benchmarking was never a thing.

They have made financing easier for new launches compared to subsale even if it’s not a better deal. Also the cultural preference for virgin toilet bowls is pervasive.

Sub-sale prices do rise in tandem with new launch prices. The impact is not direct but indirect. But i am sure you knew that already.

Buying new, there is a very dedicated and concentrated team to "secure" buyers with lots of freebies, easy entry, rewards etc. Buy sub-sale and a lot of things you have to do your self. Nowadays a lot of folks got no ready cash in the amounts required to buy sub-sale and thus have to buy new. Although by buying new, they are actually buying at market rate (unless they know somebody high up in the developer's office). In sub-sale, there is better chance at finding a bargain.

New launch price could be exorbitant but in reality, transacted subsale price didn't rise as fast or as high as new launch.

low entry cost doesn't equal to affordable, is often a trap.

Transacted price of most older condo in kv remain at pre-2014 level. taking developer's spa price as the market price almost certain will loss money when vp.

Of course it doesn’t. I agree with your point and I stated it myself subsale is almost always better value.

The entire banking and developer ecosystem is to incentivise you to buy new. Gov is happy with this like I said before due to circular economy. Subsale doesn’t benefit those fellas besides OG owner. Are they here to enrich you or themselves?

But PA is right also subsale does go up albeit at a slower pace and it’s indirect. You can leverage on the equity to buy more new units!

I thought its because China Xi Jing Ping limit outshores investment cap to 50,000 RMB. Dont want outflow of capital out of China, cuz the rich are fleeing. And they have been fleeing for a long time, but just very recently China tighten up their money again

I think with Forest City they could pay in China so that was the big get around. And that’s why it was priced like a “Shenzhen” equivalent. For local developments yea a bit more of an issue but not for the elite.

Does anyone here think property will boom despite the elevated interest rate environment? BNM isn't going to cut anytime soon, inflation macam on the uptrend due to supply issues which may mean one last hike. Overhang for condos/apartments still damn high. MYR weakening which means costlier labour and materials. China, Europe, US property woes due to crazy hikes all around. All in all a bad time to enter the market/industry..

Location and job opportunities. Period.

It’s funny how people interpret things how they want to.

There’s 2 camps - you of course make perfect sense based on aggregate fundamentals then there’s the other - oh rents have gone up a minuscule of a percent and developers are still launching like mad so we must be in for a boom phase and I better buy before I’m priced out.

Contemporary history shows; those have vested interests tend to ignore facts and data, paint a rosy future to attract someone to take over their bag.

This post has been edited by icemanfx: Sep 26 2023, 09:42 AM

Typical SA BBB speak works on a lot of people.

Property dev tend to have long gestation period, so this sudden influx of launches most likely started when interest rates were at an all time low, like 125 bps ago. Not to forget, listed developers are sitting on swathes of landbanks that they purchased aeons ago and need to monetise because shareholders expect certain revenue contribution reported every quarter.

Either way, with rising interest rates and high cost of everything really, I don't expect developers to escape this period unscathed. We're already seeing signs of distress in the debt market for certain developers, matter of time before it flows all over really

Macro view only contributes 10% to a property investment success and 90% is depending on the merit of the layout/ building/ area. Be it bad market or good market, there is always opportunity to get profitable unit (Southbrooks, R22, Sunway Belfied first launch, DPC landed, Elmina etc). Happy hunting.

This post has been edited by loyiwei: Sep 26 2023, 11:39 AM

Every day sure rain ..if you miss British weather then Taiping is perfect ...

Its still the number game with the right product that sells. The value chain must go on

This is like 10 projects over the last decade. So one a year? Majority are average, some are failures and only a few are exceptional.

You should rephrase your 90% criteria. Good location, good quality and good price is what determines the merit of a property investment. Obviously if you have all 3 then no need think, just BBB. But if you only have 2 (which the vast majority has) ? Good price and good location but horrible quality. Or good location and quality, but stupidly priced. Only large macro trends (low interest rates, low overhang, more FDI, gov support etc) can save your investment.

Buy in the right location at the right time with the right unit(s)

Timing wise doesn't hav a restriction of buy at down time or not buying at high time

Certain units perform beta than other facings.

Location wise I would say it depends on one's portfolio. Eg resi Vs commi Vs industry. Gd loc for fac doesn't mean gd for resi.

Sekian kamsiah

https://www.nst.com.my/property/2023/09/959...yP9tpWbKooXGSAg

Relevant authorities should just slow down the approval for new launches especially the mismatched products at certain areas.

If anything, this will encourage developers to continue to launch. The data is generally positive. Product mismatch I think hopefully they’ve learnt by now as it hurts their bottom line even more for a product that can’t sell.

They need to launch as they have fixed costs every month and no launch means no cash flow. But their launches will mainly be in the "affordable" category as easier to sell. Thus prices in this category will remain stagnant and even affect the more "atas" categories. However yes the data is positive for developers and the future outlook will improve as covid period is rock bottom already.

Covid more or less over. Business as usual.
The greater klang valley landed prop selling like hot cake.
Suburban area and high density condo difficult to say, probably plateau out.

https://theedgemalaysia.com/node/684078


Digest this. All sold out in 1 weekend !!!!

This post has been edited by kenzotaj: Sep 27 2023, 03:32 PM

Let them buy really. If they make money good for them, if not then don't feel sorry for them. Their money they live with the consequences of their decision. But one day if they come out to ask the government to bail them, save their business, save their jobs, then you have to fight this. Because they are asking you and many other Malaysians to pay for the consequences of their greed.

Not according to some bankers and current market sentiment.

In this age, still have people take developers hook, line and sinker.

This post has been edited by icemanfx: Sep 28 2023, 12:22 PM

The floor price will remain at 500k for mid range unit but unit size and density will change.

Question is if your higher end units are value buys or not since there’s less demand.

No surprise there. Landed freehold at 1.4 mil... not many units. Not surprisingly sold out. If you want to buy now, this will be my advise, landed 2 storey terrace. The "nasi lemak" property which will always be in demand.

I think need to differentiate on difference btw normal mkt adjustment and general recession.

The current mkt status to me is not booming but it still manage to maintain its growth. Those who bought overpriced condo for investment purpose of course will be suffered in subsale mkt due to their own wrong judgement, but it doesn't meen the mkt is collapsing. Yet nowadays majority of young buyers are still keen to buy from developer because of low initial dp and ease of financing. Landed housing is still preferential product for solid buyers.

If the mkt is really in recession, first to see is general pricing of all houses are falling in different degree, next will be the ugly financial result of developers, and then bad loan increase in Bank' quarterly report. Neither of these happened. Not to say all developers share price are recovering to pre pandemic level.

When times are bad you go.. when times are good you think twice. Also interest rate elevated? It only went back to pre-pandemic rate. No idea what elevation you referring to.

Will property boom? I no idea but i can tell you ppl will continue to buy that's for sure. Will it stop no.. it did not 40 years ago and it wont in the next 40 years. Only equation is in between how fast/slow it will be.

This follow your advise since 2012 all go Holland already. Even ppl in your camp like bearbearwong had a family bought a property. Go get a life la.

Landed with a right price definitely gets a lot of attraction from the market. I'd say the location itself is good for the price.

Actually to me property market will always move la. It's just different time with different kind of buyer. When it's on the low cycle, the rich investors will buy the dip or look through market for great deals; whereas on the high cycle, mass market will buy due to FOMO. And those who wait for market crash to get a 2-storey landed @ PJ for RM200K will continue to wait........for their sweet time to come

The reality is most of those bought poorperly at or near peak price are underwater.

Underwater i also get to sell la.. koi Kinrara bought in 2014 430k when I kahwin.. 2018 sold without lost 465k.

Gross profit, Nett Loss.

Yeah especially on the legal fee part and first few years three focus are on interest. Anyway i wouldn't want to keep that property have to let it go.

From experience, the market is need driven and sentiment driven. Even if an old property gives good ROI, some people won't bite. But some new properties logically will not give you good ROI, people also buy....