Hey! I guess you are still holding on to Tesla. I still recall your thread on Tesla.

Very strong conviction!

Tesla aside, how do you really rate such market strategy? Cause ultimately, you are giving yourself a decade to prove that your stock pick is correct. What if it isn't? Is there a point where you will hold your hands up and say that you had made a mistake? For me, I cannot imagine waiting 10 years for the market to tell me I am dead wrong.

Anyway, back to Tesla. Never a fan. Always thought it was grossly overrated and overvalued. Remember how points highlighting its market cap compared to others? The biggest turn off is Musk. I rate him lowly. His words, how to trust? As in how many times did he said 'no more Tesla stock sales from him'? Yup, his tweets are often so misleading or decpetive or perhaps manipulative as charged by SEC (back in 2018, Musk tweeted he was taking Tesla private at 420 per share. He even stated clearly that he had secured funding for the deal). Yup. nothing about Tesla the car but Musk the owner.

If use Sharpe ratio study from 2000-2012 barely anyone make it to 70%

Even the study itself topped up at 74%

If you’re above 45% in every year consistently for a decade consider yourself a guru 👏

Beware of round numbers as large institutions are buying at 100

So Tesla sales is slowing down in China. What does Tesla do? Cut prices... which meant cars are now 'cheaper between 13% and 24% compared to Sep prices.'

And obviously, that's a huge price drop. Those Chinese buyers that bought and taken delivery of their cars are really not happy.

Do you blame them?

https://www.channelnewsasia.com/business/te...-missed-3189806

Unreal...but then.. Is it surprising coming from a Musk owned company?

This post has been edited by Boon3: Jan 8 2023, 05:46 PM

I rate an investment based on the business. I look at the milestones as time goes by. If it fails to hit a certain milestone, then I shall reconsider the investment. Either just hold, sell partially or sell all. Price is not the main factor as I believe the market is always irrational at the short term. It all depends on how deep you understand the business. Very hard to share conviction one.

Regarding Elon, he is a risk I have to consider. Instead of just reading the mainstream media, I read books about him to understand his way of thinking and behavior. I admit he’s not everyone’s cup of tea. Tbh, when I first started investing a bit in Tesla, I sold immediately after his funding secured tweet. After reading about him, I actually increased my investment. I accept him as a risk factor but the investment in the company outweighs this risk. Just my opinion so feel free to think differently.

The thing about Musk is he is obsessed with the truth. If you read more on him, that is his trait, for better or for worse.

Car manufacturers cutting prices happen very often, only that it usually happens at the dealers and is not publicised widely. Why nobody protest? Because of price information asymmetry and price anchoring. You go to the dealer after knowing the price of your car after researching online. Then you go to the dealer and the dealer tries to close the sale. He may give deals if he thinks he's close to closing the deal but you may seem reluctant. If you close then it's done. Next day, another customer comes. Dealer still has inventory so he's desperate. He gives a higher discount to the customer and the customer gets a better deal than you did.

So, do you get angry? No. Because you got your car at a price you thought was a deal. Price anchoring. Did you get angry the next day because the other customer got a better deal? No. Because you have no idea the price can get lower. Price information asymmetry.

It's just a different method that has never been usually done or was usually a no no in any business course. However, Tesla is obsessed with transparency in this sense to their detriment. Consumers would rather be fucked with higher prices as long as the next day the prices don't go down. That's human nature which unfortunately Tesla has not considered. So, they have to live with these kinda protests or bad publicity instead.

Imagine, what would happen if Tesla increased prices next month again? Would these buyers go and say thank you to Tesla? So, you see why the world economy is built on inflation? When prices go down, people are not happy.

Consistency! Respect. Pretty much as I had remembered from our brief exchange of posting couple years ago.

Automotives is pretty the same. EV was just something new a few years back. Now? Price competition is there. New players and even old players are moving in to compete and price competition is only starting. Soon margins will weaken. That's how I see it. Don't see it as an industry or a sector, where I dump in money and hope to be handsomely rewarded in the next decade. Too much risk involved in an industry which is well known for undercutting each other.

And if the poor global economy or recession is as forecasted, I don't see how EV sales can grow as strongly as it did.

And EV for me? I don't see myself buying one. Eg. Myvi? 60k,yes? Cheapest EV? How much? Don't see any savings.

Musk. My principal in life is simple. Never go in business with someone who I cannot trust. So if I don't trust the owner, I won't buy the stock. Something like AirAsia. Since I don't trust the owners, I will not trade its shares. Share go up, so be it. I can sleep well missing out on such opportunities. But I will never forgive myself, if I buy a stock whose owners I rate lowly and I lose money in it. Yup. That's just me.

All the best and do know where your sell button is.

Cheers

But would u trust what you read about him in books?

We, Chinese, puts heavy importance on what we say. Our words are gold.

What do we have seen on Musk?

His stunt suggesting he would take Tesla private in 2018. Did he do what he tweeted?

He broke his words when he saud no more selling of Tesla shares.

Oh yeah, the other stunt. He tweeted he will buy Manchester United. Only to recant and said it was a joke. A joke which saw ManUtd shares jumped...

Sorry I judge him on such simple actions...

Anyway, that's just my personal opinion.



Oh yeah... Saw this article the other day too.

https://technode.com/2023/01/03/byd-tops-sa...starts-to-slow/

This post has been edited by Boon3: Jan 8 2023, 08:06 PM

That’s why I said conviction cannot share one. It’s your money so it’s your choice. Nothing wrong with that. Many other investments also can make money.

Don’t get me wrong. I’m not just invested in Tesla. I grew my wealth in Apple and Microsoft since 2009. Still holding. I also sold many losers. Each person’s risk profile also different. So I trust my research to a certain extent.

This post has been edited by kelvinlym: Jan 8 2023, 09:59 PM

i think the public too caught up on musk. they forget to look at the company itself.

their ability to scale manufacturing is insanely fast. they can also adapt their software and hardware.

their margins is so much bigger than other manufacturers. they can afford to cut prices, even undercut competitors and still make a profit. they have pricing power.

Don’t forget the power generation unit haven’t even started scaling up yet

Their charging network is only still infancy and that would be the one driving the growth not the cars in future anymore

Tesla can innovate and scale up quickly than many others yet only the bad news always getting the press time 🤦‍♀️

The owner issue is so important for me. What he does or doesn't do can drive the share price drastically up or down.

The tedious example again is the issue of Musk and his Tesla shares sale. Nothing wrong in selling his shares but when he keeps doing it time and time again, despite telling the public he won't sell any more shares, puts a massive overhang on the stock. Who wants to carry the stock when the owner can dump a chunk of the shares as and when he pleases?

Posted B4 his most recent sale in Dec. See the chart indicating his sales points.



My stance is clear. If I don't trust the owner, I won't touch the shares.

And neither would I be shorting the stock. Not my cup of kopi.

And this is rather interesting on the topic of Musk and his stock sakes. Tesla 3rd largest shareholder making angry statements.

https://finance.yahoo.com/m/d6de3b9d-c824-3...der-mounts.html



Oh yes. Its margins is big but with Tesla dumping car prices in China between 13% and 24% for its model Y and model 3, such a move would eat into future earnings. And would there be any repercussions from other Chinese EV makers? With Chinese companies known as aggressive price dumpers, would this be the start of a price war?

Interesting article : https://www.investors.com/news/tesla-stock-...ock/?src=A00220

This post has been edited by Boon3: Jan 9 2023, 06:35 AM

not trying to convince you or change your views. everyone has their own risk tolerance toward different things. some things are not acceptable to some.

personally i think $TSLA has a long way to run, in bear market times everything negative is magnified. i take it as opportunity to buy.

i'm very keen on the optimus. if that works out in a few years, a lot of industries will be shaken by it.

And neither am I trying to convince you. Hope you understand that too.

Just hope you know what you are betting for. As I feel that Tesla is way overrated. Yes, it's a nice piece of ride. No doubt but competition is much more visible now. Personally, I feel that sudden car price slash in China is way too sudden and the cuts is massive. That will make buyers even more cautious, since this is the 2nd time that Tesla is cutting prices in China. (won't buyers think twice now b4 buying a Tesla? who wants to buy a depreciating asset like a car, only to see the seller lowering its selling prices drastically?) The first time was just as recent as in Oct 2022. For me, this is indicating a much slower demand for its car in China.

And apparently, it's lowering its car prices in Australia, Japan and South Korea too. ( https://www.aljazeera.com/economy/2023/1/6/...-fuelling-anger )

Falling demand on the back of the fact that Tesla had been spending big on capex. That's not a good sign for me.

But yea... for whatever ... just sharing my view points ya...





link to lower Australia Tesla prices:

https://www.news.com.au/technology/motoring...934d441b6ba9510



This post has been edited by Boon3: Jan 9 2023, 09:39 AM

If you dare got one last year I doubled within 2 weeks

Ticker APPS

actually this price slashing happens very often. just pay attention the next time bmw or mercedes launches a new 3/c and e/5.

the first cbu batch is the most expensive. then after that they drop quite a bit with the ckd. later in the final couple of yearrs in the car's life cycle they drop another round.

the other part is also how the automotive industry works. tesla price cuts are very obvious because they sell it themselves and you can see on the site. other car manufacturers sell it to the dealers, then the dealers sell to consumers, how much discount the dealers give to consumers varies. some dealers are desperate to sell, they throw more price, the thing is it's localised and not apparent to everyone. so say you buy from me, i give u 10k discount, another guy buying in penang maybe only get 3k discount. it's opaque so unless the penang guy knows me and asks how much i bought only he will know.

This post has been edited by eyerule: Jan 10 2023, 09:05 AM

Really? Don't know much about Mercedes cars.

The thing is BYD increased its car prices and Tesla is giving huge discounts?

https://www.thestandard.com.hk/section-news...0the%20mainland.




For me, it's basics. If Tesla reduces its selling prices, two simple things that I ask.

Is demand slowing down?
Or is there too much supply?

Important question since a lowered selling product will generally means much lower profits (unless the lower prices manage to attract plenty of buyers of the cars)


Oh yeah... Spore Tesla is giving BIG discount ( https://www.carsifu.my/news/tesla-offers-di...vs-in-inventory )



anyway, as it is, the stock is probably gonna see bigger swings and either directiion. Time for the bulls versus the bears (Shorties) .... yeah... another famous short squeeze could happen in Tesla... or ......

BYD increased prices due to supply chain issues related to chips and covid expenses

I don’t think you understand the pricing power of Tesla as it is able to control demand and supply as the market whims

Each Tesla is taking 10kusd back to the shareholders coffers close 20% per car while Toyota only takes a tenth of it 🤦‍♀️

So doesn’t matter the number of units Tesla sold but the deliveries are more important than any 🤦‍♀️

So far only 8 companies in the world have this price dictation unlike others and Tesla belongs to that group 👏

2021 was hold one to maximise the gain

2022 was a lot of swing trading hence which is why easy to make if you got the guts the bottom and hold

Good company but too bad price is not reflective of it 🤦‍♀️

i don't think you're looking at it properly. someone else already explained. tesla can reduce prices and undercut competitors and still make money.