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 Will you think the property market will fall soon?, will the landed property fall in 2024?

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jojolicia
post May 10 2023, 05:14 PM

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QUOTE(Chrono-Trigger @ May 10 2023, 04:39 PM)
Indirectly, the loose monetary policies in the 2000 and 2010s have contributed to the state of property market now.

The government can take the easy way out of pushing OPR to be low , but we will end up like Turkiye with runaway inflation.
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Not loose la.
It was just innovately made attractive and affordable entry with financing package.

That was why came mid 2010s (can't really remember, i think 2014/15), bnm enforced 3rd & above prop at 70% finance margin lo

This post has been edited by jojolicia: May 12 2023, 08:27 PM
TSjrshow
post May 10 2023, 06:11 PM

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ltf_195
post May 11 2023, 02:15 PM

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QUOTE(A.B.D. @ May 9 2023, 07:39 PM)
The example I gave is to point out that since it is not possible for a desired area to have zero demand, then how high is the possibility of crash? Lelong also will see buyers push higher and higher because it’s worth it for them. Bank will always lend to qualified borrowers. Since you look for property in 2011 until now, government has tried to keep interest rate low without big jumps to encourage economic activity.

General trend, meaning all properties combined, is up, yes. There’s data few pages back.
But it’s made up of so many states, towns, tamans & types of properties, and not all are up, some areas are down. So there are super performers causing the general trend to be up. These areas also tend to be the target of people waiting for crash. Anyway my point is personal experience of property market is different like someone who wants to buy in hot area only or trying to sell their prop in dead area. General trend has limited use to an individual.
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Of course there will be price drop in certain undeveloped area, but this does not referred to the "market crash" as mention in the title. In general malaysia market, most of the time its stagnant and when something happen like rise in raw material price, housing price will be increase too, so when it will go down? Again in general malaysia market, newly develop area for double storey is half a million, if the area continue to develop the housing price will be increase, if not, most probably stagnant, very little to have price drop.

I think it will be healthier for the industry to have up and down. People say the bigger you are the harder you fall. At that point it will bring down the whole economy. I still believe the market crash but no one knows when, probably we cannot see it coming.

Anyway, all my comment are my opinion as general Malaysian who not in the industries but really want an affordable housing price that worth our money. Yes, maybe your company loss a lot of money in property industries but it still does not reflex to the housing price in general.
A.B.D.
post May 11 2023, 03:15 PM

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QUOTE(jrshow @ May 10 2023, 06:11 PM)
this is related to your other thread about doing business is getting harder.

normally consumers will cut spending in other areas before they default on their housing loan.
A.B.D.
post May 11 2023, 03:49 PM

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QUOTE(ltf_195 @ May 11 2023, 02:15 PM)
Of course there will be price drop in certain undeveloped area, but this does not referred to the "market crash" as mention in the title. In general malaysia market, most of the time its stagnant and when something happen like rise in raw material price, housing price will be increase too, so when it will go down? Again in general malaysia market, newly develop area for double storey is half a million, if the area continue to develop the housing price will be increase, if not, most probably stagnant, very little to have price drop.

I think it will be healthier for the industry to have up and down. People say the bigger you are the harder you fall. At that point it will bring down the whole economy. I still believe the market crash but no one knows when, probably we cannot see it coming.

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Your view of the general property market makes sense and and shared by many.

Agree it’s hard to predict and time a crash. Covid was one of the potential trigger but didn’t really cause a crash as you also noted. So maybe a war can trigger the next crash.

TS share that OPR rise many times but loan interest will rise as cautiously as possible as the banks won’t want to crash property market since they are the real owners of most real estate under loan anyway.
clyeoh1980
post May 11 2023, 04:08 PM

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so guys with all being said, what is conclusion ? will property price drop or not?😂😂😂😂😂😂😂😂😂
icemanfx
post May 11 2023, 04:14 PM

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QUOTE(A.B.D. @ May 11 2023, 03:15 PM)
this is related to your other thread about doing business is getting harder.

normally consumers will cut spending in other areas before they default on their housing loan.
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https://forum.lowyat.net/topic/5358815

Many borrowers income is affected by cut in consumers spending, some may find continuous loan repayment tough and may end in default.

This post has been edited by icemanfx: May 11 2023, 04:19 PM
clyeoh1980
post May 11 2023, 04:24 PM

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QUOTE(icemanfx @ May 11 2023, 05:14 PM)
https://forum.lowyat.net/topic/5358815

Many borrowers income is affected by cut in consumers spending, some may find continuous loan repayment tough and may end in default.
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it never happen la...at least not in my area here - bukit mertajam, people still buy property like hot cake....where got default issue ?

come proof me otherwise.....

there is no evidence that default case is on the rise ! where is data ?

Don't create false alarm to community here......house price will never drop and it will keep on rising....

if you still wish for the property price to drop....then good luck. It will not happen in ur life time.

This post has been edited by clyeoh1980: May 11 2023, 04:30 PM
TSjrshow
post May 11 2023, 05:13 PM

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QUOTE(clyeoh1980 @ May 11 2023, 04:24 PM)
it never happen la...at least not in my area here - bukit mertajam, people still buy property like hot cake....where got default issue ?

come proof me otherwise.....

there is no evidence that default case is on the rise ! where is data ?

Don't create false alarm to community here......house price will never drop and it will keep on rising....

if you still wish for the property price to drop....then good luck. It will not happen in ur life time.
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r u agent?i think only agent will have optimestic like this...when to public, agent will say propety blooming, even in mco time...but when facing land loard, owner, then will say property really crashing...runtuh...2 face ...
SUSSihambodoh
post May 11 2023, 05:26 PM

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QUOTE(jrshow @ May 11 2023, 05:13 PM)
r u agent?i think only agent will have optimestic like this...when to public, agent will say propety blooming, even in mco time...but when facing land loard, owner, then will say property really crashing...runtuh...2 face ...
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Boss jangan pecah tembelang olang lain, cali makan jer... kasi chan boss
icemanfx
post May 11 2023, 05:35 PM

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QUOTE(clyeoh1980 @ May 11 2023, 04:24 PM)
it never happen la...at least not in my area here - bukit mertajam, people still buy property like hot cake....where got default issue ?

come proof me otherwise.....

there is no evidence that default case is on the rise ! where is data ?

Don't create false alarm to community here......house price will never drop and it will keep on rising....

if you still wish for the property price to drop....then good luck. It will not happen in ur life time.
*
https://www.ngchanmau.com/property/search?k...=Bukit+mertajam

https://www.lelongtips.com.my/search?keywor...size=&max_size=


This post has been edited by icemanfx: May 12 2023, 04:08 AM
howyoulikethat
post May 11 2023, 10:32 PM

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QUOTE(A.B.D. @ May 11 2023, 03:15 PM)
this is related to your other thread about doing business is getting harder.

normally consumers will cut spending in other areas before they default on their housing loan.
*
actually this makes sense, but just something which never occured to me rclxub.gif
TSjrshow
post May 12 2023, 11:44 AM

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how, will the malaysia property drop?since opr naik alr
jett138
post May 12 2023, 12:24 PM

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Prop price will drop if banks start to bust in malaysia.

Slight opr hike doesn't effect much, sme will die first.

Money in money market can still cover for loan repayments btw.

Rents are not going down, it's getting up. It doesn't lowers once the opr went down also.

Subsale price a lot are stagnant, lelong ones are over priced units. You buy alrd go remortgage might not be getting the same value. New units are selling above their value. In the end banks still wins by creating new debt.
icemanfx
post May 12 2023, 01:19 PM

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QUOTE(jett138 @ May 12 2023, 12:24 PM)
Prop price will drop if banks start to bust in malaysia.

Slight opr hike doesn't effect much, sme will die first.

Money in money market can still cover for loan repayments btw.

Rents are not going down, it's getting up. It doesn't lowers once the opr went down also.

Subsale price a lot are stagnant, lelong ones are over priced units. You buy alrd go remortgage might not be getting the same value. New units are selling above their value. In the end banks still wins by creating new debt.
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As if different components in economy is isolated.

If sme die, how many borrower will be affected?

From number of people have premier/privilege/priority bank account, few people have funds in money market.

Poorperly oversupply has no impact on rental market.

This post has been edited by icemanfx: May 12 2023, 01:48 PM
knwong
post May 12 2023, 01:52 PM

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My CIMB just inform that monthly mortgage will increase...
How others are coping?
jett138
post May 12 2023, 01:52 PM

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QUOTE(icemanfx @ May 12 2023, 02:19 PM)
As if different components in economy is isolated.

If sme die, how many borrower will be affected?

According to number of people have premier/privilege/priority bank account, few people have funds in money market.

Poorperly oversupply has no impact on rental market.
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0.25% won't die so fast, another round of debt creation is otw.

Oversupply at undesired location which a correction is required/ ongoing. In better areas places are being snapped up fast.

Overall malaysia prop market will not see drastic drop as per hoped by a lot of people. Stagnation and some correction phase.

Most areas tend to be held by a few families and growing the portfolio on a year to year basis.(rows of shoplots and some residential, perhaps running a few jmb also in the area)

Money market is the place that gives you least returns btw, yet it can services the facilities/ leverage instrument. Collect debt interest to cover another debt and have spare change.

Amount of borrower that might/ default over small hike is so small that you can't make good profit shorting the reits.

People you need to look for are those with fam office/ private banking if you are asking where the money are, certain people in pnb and khazanah has the list.
Aaron212
post May 12 2023, 02:08 PM

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Landed prop still in hot demand
icemanfx
post May 12 2023, 02:08 PM

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QUOTE(jett138 @ May 12 2023, 01:52 PM)
0.25% won't die so fast, another round of debt creation is otw.

Oversupply at undesired location which a correction is required/ ongoing. In better areas places are being snapped up fast.

Overall malaysia prop market will not see drastic drop as per hoped by a lot of people. Stagnation and some correction phase.

Most areas tend to be held by a few families and growing the portfolio on a year to year basis.(rows of shoplots and some residential, perhaps running a few jmb also in the area)

Money market is the place that gives you least returns btw, yet it can services the facilities/ leverage instrument. Collect debt interest to cover another debt and have spare change.

Amount of borrower that might/ default over small hike is so small that you can't make good profit shorting the reits.

People you need to look for are those with fam office/ private banking if you are asking where the money are, certain people in pnb and khazanah has the list.
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Where are these better places? Klcc?

As most bought with bank loan, price rise slower than loan interest and expenses incurred is financial losses.

Where and which families?

Those have family office or with private bank are likely to invest in London, Dubai, sg, etc. Given opportunity available in other markets, this group keep very small portion of their portfolio here. In fact, many are exiting local poorperly market below peak valuation.

This post has been edited by icemanfx: May 12 2023, 02:27 PM
jett138
post May 12 2023, 02:43 PM

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QUOTE(icemanfx @ May 12 2023, 03:08 PM)
Where are these better places? Klcc?

As most bought with bank loan, price rise slower than loan interest and expenses incurred is financial losses.

Where and which families?

Those have family office or with private bank are likely to invest in London, Dubai, sg, etc. Given opportunity available in other markets, this group keep very small portion of their portfolio here. In fact, many are exiting local poorperly market below peak valuation.
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Klcc prices has come downed abit actually. survey around and you will notice the better areas with some hot money.

where and which family you have to dig yourself. most are not known publicly.

exited at peak now pending to make a kill again.

compared to london, more went to switzerland, ireland, netherlands and the likes. more on netherlands since demand there is crazy. UAE returns arent that great tbh.
however if you are okay with abit of corruption asean has a vast basket for you to grow money in property and create another bubble.

its abit off topic already.

that being said its unlikely malaysian property market will face a crash or fall anytime soon with so little rate hike, might happen if we see the % as per us. then things would be very interesting and a lot of opportunities are available for all.

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