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 Bogleheads Local Chapter [Malaysia Edisi]

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naranjero P
post Mar 27 2022, 06:40 PM

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Hi everyone, I am quite a boglehead too. 60/40 VWRA+WSML+small amount of local mutual fund/AGGU+cash with 5% gold.

Normally where you guys park your cash? FD or money market? what are the good options to park cash?

My take on local vs international is incline to international as much as possible depending on size of money... since our EPF maybe already have around 35% in local market if not mistaken (and 15% international)

Been thinking about any accessible alternative asset in Malaysia can't find any good options. REITs, crypto, Rolex are not my type of game, hedge fund too high to climb...
naranjero P
post Mar 27 2022, 06:56 PM

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By the way I do believe index investing might be one of the most effective method of investing for general individual investor compare to many other method i.e. stock picking, market timing, trend trading etc unless we have enough tools to compete with big market player.

These two are my favorite books (sure most of you had already read) but it could be useful for newcomer:

Little Book of Common Sense Investing
Book by John C. Bogle

A Random Walk Down Wall Street
Book by Burton Malkiel

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naranjero P
post Mar 28 2022, 03:49 PM

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thumbup.gif thumbup.gif Thanks, going to have a look in the KDI save.

I share similar view that REIT correlates just too much to the stock market, not worthy to be considered as different asset - a small amount in capital weighted index fund already done a good diversification.

Well said. Index investing are actually picking up the free breadcrumbs - almost like parasite - reaping small return without paying any effort to set the market price right.
naranjero P
post Mar 29 2022, 07:58 PM

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QUOTE(blackchides @ Mar 29 2022, 02:59 AM)
Why so much allocation to ex-US by the way? I know the usual answer is diversification but reading some of the Boglehead forums out there, there's a school of thought for 100% US allocation as companies in those baskets would have global exposure anyway. And also US index has been outperforming international for the last 10-15 years, I believe.

My index portion of my portfolio right now is 100% VTI.  My only non-US exposure is through Stashaway ETFs.
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I am in another school - why avoid international?
US index has been outperforming -- thats is the past. Nobody can predict the future, how certain we are the US can continue to exceed the expectation(not perform as expected as it is already price in, to earn extra profit it should exceed investor expectation), or the center of global economy would be shifting to somewhere else in coming 10-15 years? I guess for now keeping 60 US : 40 international is fair enough just as market capitalization weighted, no matter how the winner rotates it wont affect us too much.
naranjero P
post Apr 7 2022, 07:31 PM

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QUOTE(Toku @ Apr 7 2022, 03:54 PM)
That is too much diversification I am afraid. And the China sector is too low. Not good for long term. No one manage your money better than yourself.
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Agree to disagree, you have made a very brave post in Boglehead thread thumbup.gif thumbup.gif

Since we all here invest to make money, being right or wrong doesn't really matter, what matter is our investment is making money or not.

So I also share my opinion:
"China sector is too low. Not good for long term".
-probably you are right. AND probably if you have known it, most of the big investment bank fund managers and pros had known it as well, and they are aware the risk of investing in China as well. Thats why the asset of China is traded at the price you see.
-so is that tilting more to China means you have bought something cheaper than fair value that others haven't notice? I guess unless you really have insider news that the public doesn't know yet... or if you have crystal ball... otherwise if how much you know about China is more or less from more publicly available information like news or internet or economic data...investors had already priced the potential return and risk of China market - you are probably only tilting your portfolio to be riskier, you might not made your portfolio better. Unless maybe you had financially engineered it for hedging with something?

"No one manage your money better than yourself"
-this one I agreed notworthy.gif what we need to understand about ourselves is the risk we can take.
-even pros and fund managers, some make more money some lose money, ultimately it is zero sum game
naranjero P
post Apr 7 2022, 07:36 PM

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You seem to think that Chinese counters will do well in the long run. This is known as "views" in finance. You are free to express your views, and that belongs to the regime of active investing. You can long Chinese equities, for instance, relative to a passive global index like the ACWI. That's perfectly fine. But Bogleheads won't do that, they have faith in the index providers' analysis and judgements. If the (global) index in question is underweight on Chinese exposure, they just follow.

bruce.gif

I think this is incorrect statement if you are referring to passive global index as " they have faith in the index providers' analysis and judgements" -- very false statement.
passive index fund don't make complicated analysis and judgements, they only hold asset based on weightage of the asset, how much of the asset priced, is based on the market investor trading it at what price -- which is more reflected as a collective fair value of all investors.


Being boglehead is nothing fancy, so purist or not purist doesn't really matter, whats matter is if the reason behind the boglehead investing sound or not. Ultimately, we are here to make money right?
naranjero P
post Apr 7 2022, 10:32 PM

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I refer to Bogleheads as having faith in index providers' analysis and judgements, not the ETFs/index funds themselves (maybe the fund managers have, but still they are bound by the fund's prospectus and other legal documents which govern the funds' operations).

So, the manager of the index funds just follow the index, and "Bogleheads" would buy the index. If you trace the money, it's Bogleheads who buy the index (and maybe some others who want a piece of the index in their portfolio). Why would someone buy a product if they don't have faith in it, right?

The complicated analysis and judgements are done by the the index providers, like S&P, FTSE, MSCI etc. They have "methodologies" to follow in choosing the index constituents.

E.g. this is MSCI's "methodologies":

Ya, nothing fancy. It's just a philosophy, there are different ways of investing out there. But since this thread is about Bogleheads in Malaysia, I presume we just stick to Bogleheads stuff here. I am not sure if active vs passive/Bogleheads discussions/debates are allowed in this "local chapter".

And yes, we are definitely here to make money. The only thing that differs is how to make money, i.e. the approach (whether the process involves too much costs etc.)
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Ah okay my bad for misunderstood you doh.gif
Indeed a complicated analysis and judgement for the methodologies, I will only "guess" their methodology doesn't make a lot of difference, if not mistaken even the country GDP weighed global index vs standard one also not too far difference in performance?

Since the objective of everyone here is the same -- to have better investment, I guess it is no harm to share different view so we can make better judgement as well? What would be your view on different approach / active investing if you don't mind to share?
naranjero P
post Apr 9 2022, 02:10 PM

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QUOTE(chiacp @ Apr 9 2022, 11:42 AM)
As a boglehead, there are a couple of investment philosophy i believe in.
1. Long term buy and hold is the best policy.
2. Costs is BAD. Therefore frequent trading just increases cost.
3. Diversification ie. Buying the  whole market to hedge against all scenarios (as much as possible)

I dont pretend to be better than the anyone else in stock picking; over long term, the "best" active managers has NOT done better than a passively held whole market low cost ETF.
I dont know whats the next top stocks or what the interest rate going to be. Nor do I care to crack my head trying to research them.
Investing is ensure more free time to do what is important to me and have a good night's sleep without looking at what the stock markets are doing on a regular  basis.
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Our philosophy are the same.

It's not saying it is impossible to analyze and the company and the economy, just I think that it will take too much effort from us to do so in order to outperform the market. Unless treat it as a intellectual challenge or passion then I guess it is fine.
naranjero P
post May 9 2022, 12:30 PM

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Hello all Boglehead sifu here notworthy.gif

What are the effective method to prepare for next economic crisis/stock market crash? Asking for more general in a very long term, anything possible to happen will happen, consider it already happened many time in history.

-considering events like 1997 or 2008 crisis, global index drawdown could be >50% and take years to recover. Holding a fully diversified equity portfolio might hardly avoid that.
-deliberate allocation to gold, US treasury or other kind of asset particularly useful for crashes
-always have some dry powder ready
-"I can smell it before stock market crashes!"

 

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