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 Bogleheads Local Chapter [Malaysia Edisi]

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Hoshiyuu
post May 1 2022, 02:49 PM

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QUOTE(KingArthurVI @ May 1 2022, 10:23 AM)
I'm having a serious case of FOMO here with most index funds going on a discount of late. I just finished my home renovation and so need cash for paying the contractors. But also hurting from seeing everything being on discount... Fellow Bogleheads, anyone been in this situation before? What did you do to stop yourself from doing something stupid like liquidating certain "safer" emergency funds like backup FD to put into index funds at this time?
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Don't time the market. When in doubt, zoom out.

Nobody knows if it's going to go up or down tomorrow - you could be dropping 100k into current price thinking it's 30% off, but it could just as well be the best price you will see in 10 years. Or, the ATH you bought at next month could be the last time you ever see this price for the rest of your life.

Let's say you miss this "dip" and the market goes up 10% in the following months when you can finally buy in again - the difference in 10-20 years is minimal at best, because you only won one coin toss, you will still need to go through the rest of the coin tosses.

Emergency fund is emergency fund, if it isn't an emergency, don't touch it. It's there to safe guard your investment and it's a key player in your portfolio.

Just make your regular deposits every month, do a lump sum if you had a windfall that you don't need right now. Don't invest money you need. Close the app and live your life, don't look at the market every day.

This post has been edited by Hoshiyuu: May 1 2022, 02:49 PM
Hoshiyuu
post May 2 2022, 07:48 PM

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QUOTE(Medufsaid @ May 2 2022, 07:42 PM)
ben felix says that when you buy an ETF, buy the general ETF and not industry specific ones. don't try to pick and choose. dominos actually outperformed all the other tech stocks

should be this video, sorry i've no time to double check. his videos are worth checking anyway

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Yeap. As far as Bogleheads are concerned, when we mention "index funds" - we mean market weighted, broad based index. That's basically VT or its analogues only. With these index funds getting a meteoric rise in popularity, active fund managers has been trying to getting a piece of the pie by perverting the term, on top general investor confusion between Index Funds and ETF to muddle the discussion.

Sector betting is highly discouraged, that's why you don't ever see a proper Bogleheads recommending QQQ, KWEB, or god forbid, ARK funds ETFs.

There's investing, and then there's gambling, and degenerate gambling.

Hoshiyuu
post May 5 2022, 12:02 AM

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A great add-on to my previous post.

"If you’re excited about an investment, it’s probably not a good investment."

This post has been edited by Hoshiyuu: May 5 2022, 01:29 AM
Hoshiyuu
post May 7 2022, 05:17 AM

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https://gdcdyn.interactivebrokers.com/Unive...iew?formdb=4289

user posted image


If this applies to Irish domiciled LSE listed ETF, this is gonna be big for those who are buying VUSD purely because it has lower per share price.
Hoshiyuu
post May 10 2022, 01:45 AM

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QUOTE(naranjero @ May 9 2022, 12:30 PM)
Hello all Boglehead sifu here notworthy.gif

What are the effective method to prepare for next economic crisis/stock market crash? Asking for more general in a very long term, anything possible to happen will happen, consider it already happened many time in history.

-considering events like 1997 or 2008 crisis, global index drawdown could be >50% and take years to recover. Holding a fully diversified equity portfolio might hardly avoid that.
-deliberate allocation to gold, US treasury or other kind of asset particularly useful for crashes
-always have some dry powder ready
-"I can smell it before stock market crashes!"
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Standard Bogleheads answers are having a healthy asset allocation in Bonds/MMF/Inflation hedges that can either (1) rebalance into cheap stocks or (2) keep you liquid for prolonged market downturns so you aren't pressured into selling stocks at their worst prices. Keep in mind, if the market does go through a 80%+ downturn, chances of a person keeping their job isn't high either. However, if you already have emergency funds and safe allocations in your portfolio to help you weather the storm, a big ugly event like that might also counter-intuitively reduce your cost of living through deflation, impacting your savings/emergency fund a lot less than you'd think.

The best case scenario? You don't read financial news, you keep your job, you don't check your balance and just sit through the bad years oblivious and come out far richer.

JL Collins has a good write up regarding "The Big Ugly Event" that is a good read if you are interested.

As for "timing" the crash and holding dry powder for it.... well, that's far from what a Bogleheads could do. Again, no one can truly predict the market, the market could rally by 50% the day you liquidated everything to cut loss. I am sure those who lost money "cutting loss" during the covid dip is still feeling the sting.

QUOTE(Warren Buffett)
There is a difference between treasury bills and commercial papers. The former is cash, whereas the latter is not.


This post has been edited by Hoshiyuu: May 10 2022, 01:56 PM
Hoshiyuu
post May 12 2022, 12:40 PM

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Sweet unholy god what is all this perverted talk in a Bogleheads thread?
Hoshiyuu
post May 12 2022, 12:49 PM

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QUOTE(Cubalagi @ May 12 2022, 12:46 PM)
Sorry for the heresy talk. 😆

Please continue DCA VWRA discussion ..
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Hahaha, time has changed a lot since I've asked for your advice regarding Bursa listed ETF and China ETF back in Feb 2021, I am an honest-to-god non sector picking total market investor now tongue.gif
Hoshiyuu
post May 12 2022, 12:52 PM

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QUOTE(AthrunIJ @ May 12 2022, 12:49 PM)
😆
Worry not still within boglehead topic of looking for MMF 😆
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Hahaha, mostly joking for some laughs, we haven't turned into a crypto thread yet and that alone is good enough.

Even on the Bogleheads subreddit, plenty of folks are a far cry from the traditional VT and chill during the massive bullmarket too biggrin.gif
Hoshiyuu
post May 14 2022, 09:42 PM

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QUOTE(thkent91 @ May 13 2022, 02:00 PM)
Count me in.

I'm also onboard ETF via Rakuten Trade.

Started Investing in Bursa since 2012, although return has been nice, I am beginning to lose hope in Malaysia Economy

Loading the few ETF into my portfolio slowly:
1. ICLN Nasdaq
2. LIT Nasdaq
3. HYDR Nasdaq
4. TAN Nasdaq
5. 2809.HK

I'm going heavy on alternative energy, because the price of energy will not drop so soon. Everybody needs energy. Oil and Gas difficult to get funding from financial institution leads to higher price of production
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Putting aside that this portfolio doesn't follow the Bogleheads philosophy at all, this is pure sector tilting on top of bad overlapping causing bad overweighting on certain underlying stocks. While the investor's intention is clear, you may want to reconsider your portfolio...
Hoshiyuu
post Jun 1 2022, 07:23 PM

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QUOTE(CoastFireSoon @ Jun 1 2022, 10:12 AM)
Hello all,
I'm happy we have a Boglehead chapter Malaysian chapter! I was feeingl lost and isolated in a sea of stock pickers and crypto fans lol. I literally read every post and learned so much, especially about bond allocation which I'm very confused with. You guys are awesome and I'm glad there are people in Malaysia who believe in the investing style I do.

I'm a late starter, unfortunately.

I wish wish wish I knew about the Boglehead investing philosophy in my 20s, but now I'm 45 and slowly realigning my portfolio to this allocation:

70% equitties - VTI, VXUS, VOO --> But will just put in VT from now on for simplicity's sakes. In the future will transition to Irish domiciled ETFs. probably next year.
10% REITS & some local blue chip stocks - SUNREIT, AXREIT, Maybank
20% Fixed income - mostly money market and FD. I have some in ABFMY1 ETF also

I have ways to go to adjust my portfolio. In my 30s I bought the smooth talk of a Public Mutual unit trust salesman and just let her pick whatever stock. As a result I'm now overweighted in Malaysian equities sad.gif. But it's way too scary to sell now cos that unit trust is down soooo much. So I'm not going to touch it.

Instead, I'm hyper accelerating my investments, just pouring most of it into VT, which I buy using Rakuten Trade cos it's only RM8 per trade. I'm ALSO slowly move my investments out of SA into VT (at a loss, ouch).

Yes, about my US ETFs. I totally understand about the witholding tax issues, but after watching a video by Zeit where he compared buying US ETF vs Irish domiciled ones, I think my portfolio too kecik to worry about that now, and I don't think I can afford the big bullets of investing in LSE for now. I'm also working up the courage to open an IBKR account --> I just don't feel secure using an online broker not approved by SEC yet.

I got a question for all of you - in your equities portion of your portfolio, are you all 100% foreign equities (US & world), or do you have a mix of M'sian and foreign equities in your portfolio? If I have a choice I want to keep my Malaysian equities to just 10% of my portfolio cos I have no confidence with the Malaysian economy.
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Well, I'm investing in total market by market weight, so my Malaysian stocks allocation is done via VWRA and my portfolio consist of 0.2% of it, and I refuse to have a cent more than needed in Malaysian stocks.

Over the past two years I've been cutting out random investment that I've picked up in my misguided days or when I lacked access to a good broker, instead of just letting them rot there and pay pointless fees. But I can perfectly understand the sentiment of "just let it sit, it's not a loss until I realized it" though. That can be a purely personal choice and you shouldn't worry too much about it.

As for IBKR... well, let's just say I trust in IBKR and all its auditing firms far and beyond I trust SC.
Hoshiyuu
post Jun 3 2022, 11:17 AM

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QUOTE(Medufsaid @ Jun 3 2022, 10:32 AM)
sometimes the pro and cons are not so clear cut. for example, yesterday US markets rallied, however if you stuck to only Irish Domiciled etfs, you are unable to topup more units on the spot as LSE had a public holiday. chasing today when Irish Domiciled starts trading later is too late

my stand could change if Irish domiciled can give me 0% tax instead of still a 15% rate
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Well, part of the Bogleheads modus operandi is to invest at fixed intervals and don't time the market anyway, so it's surprisingly a smaller deal than it is. For broad market index, it's really hard to profit or loss from the movement, no need to worry too much about it.

I wouldn't bother with KLCI Index - Index investing doesn't mean you buy anything that says it's an index or an ETF. You buy VWRA/VT because its a representation of the broad market that it covers the broad market that in general trend up.

KLCI as a whole has been trading sideways or down for the last decade, you couldn't even beat inflation even if there was an index for it.

Keep it simple. Stay with broad market indexes, don't overthink it and end up with diworsification.

This post has been edited by Hoshiyuu: Jun 3 2022, 11:21 AM
Hoshiyuu
post Jun 7 2022, 05:41 PM

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QUOTE(Hoshiyuu @ May 5 2022, 12:02 AM)


A great add-on to my previous post.

"If you’re excited about an investment, it’s probably not a good investment."
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Short listening material on this topic if the video does not interest you.

https://open.spotify.com/episode/0ijwnRMl39Pxhpy80rCiyC
Hoshiyuu
post Jun 24 2022, 09:11 PM

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QUOTE(no6 @ Jun 23 2022, 08:07 PM)
may i know where do we add this trusted contact person
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I was offered a form the moment I completed my registration. Its probably somewhere in the account settings....?
Hoshiyuu
post Mar 28 2023, 09:39 PM

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How are my fellow bogleheads holding up?
Hoshiyuu
post Mar 28 2023, 11:03 PM

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QUOTE(Ancient-XinG- @ Mar 28 2023, 10:53 PM)
Still holding brkb and vwra

Anyone ca share their etf profile?
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Profile as in portfolio allocation?

Mine hasn't changed since early 2022 I think.

90% VWRA Vanguard FTSE All-World UCITS ETF USD Acc.
00% VAGU Vanguard Global Aggregate Bond ETF USD Hgd Acc. (increase to 10% by year 2040 or so)
06% AVUV Avantis US Small Cap Value ETF
04% AVDV Avantis International Small Cap Value ETF

This post has been edited by Hoshiyuu: Mar 28 2023, 11:03 PM
Hoshiyuu
post Mar 29 2023, 12:23 AM

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QUOTE(TOS @ Mar 28 2023, 11:08 PM)
Is there any specific reason you look for the USD-hedged Global Aggregate ETF instead of just buying the US Aggregate Bond ETF?
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I believe the common choice is AGGU/AGGG to replace BND/BNDW? My reasoning to VAGU is mostly, in the following order:

1. Ireland domiciled witholding tax benefits.
2. Vanguard is likely to lower their fee automatically in the long run as the AUM grow. This is historically true but now debatable with the passing of John Bogle.
3. Global instead of US only for diversification - the same reason I buy VWRA.
4. I picked USD-hedged version mostly for the however little effect is has on the USD-SGD-MYR relationship and the status of USD - happy to be corrected on this, but it's not like I would ever consider VAGP and AFAIK there isn't an unhedged version of vanguard aggregate bond.

This post has been edited by Hoshiyuu: Mar 29 2023, 12:23 AM
Hoshiyuu
post Mar 29 2023, 09:39 PM

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QUOTE(TOS @ Mar 29 2023, 12:28 PM)
Your points make sense. Reasonings are clear as well.

A few things to be mindful though:

1. The actual bond holdings of the Aggregate funds (be they US/Global) are very different from the index. Sometimes you see Chinese/Japanese government bonds at the top 10/10% holdings in the fund sheets while in some other cases the top 10/10% holdings may be US corporate + treasuries. Most bond ETFs use the "stratified sampling" methodology where only a portion of the bonds universe are sampled and selectively represented by the fund. hence, the ETF exposure can be wildly different from what the index really represents. You are advised to read the annual report/interim report of the ETF to have a full look of the entire fund's bond holdings before you invest in it.

2. Hedging currencies involved the use of FX swaps/forwards which are derivatives. As with all derivative contracts, there is implicit leverage (and implicit lending/borrowing for swaps). Most likely, the ETF's bond holdings will be used as a collateral for those swaps/forwards positions. In extreme events, those collateral positions may give you trouble (think of UK pension fund's LDI crisis). And from my derivative class lesson, hedging currencies with swaps/forwards are usually costly in the sense that the market will move against you when you enter into such contracts. (Technically, we say the uncovered interest rate parity does not hold and the counterparty investment banks tend to make a profit with a Sharpe ratio of about 0.5.)

So if possible, use natural hedging (invest in the share class whose currency you are comfortable with) or choose the unhedged share class of the ETF. Try to keep the underlying as simple/as close to just the bonds itself without all those unnecessary derivative positions.
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Appreciate the in-depth advice!Will definitely keep both of your point in mind. Hopefully by the time I start allocating into bonds, a more suitable ETF would've been made available so I don't need to worry about either point...
Hoshiyuu
post Mar 29 2023, 09:41 PM

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QUOTE(AthrunIJ @ Mar 29 2023, 08:49 AM)
Highest peak was +USD1.3k, lowest peak was -USD3k

Now hovering break even point.

HODL!!!! and DCA.

50 50 between VWRA and MIT and MLT.
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That's rather high tilt into sector-specific, region-specfic reits, do you mind sharing your thought process behind your allocation? What's your investment horizon?
Hoshiyuu
post Apr 2 2023, 01:10 PM

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QUOTE(Cubalagi @ Apr 2 2023, 10:56 AM)
Im not really a Boglehead as I do buy individual securities in addition to indexes.

i also dont have a fixed asset allocation like Bogleheads do.Currently, portfolio positioned quite conservatively. This is the approximate asset allocation of my portfolio:

50% Bonds
25% Equities
10% Gold
15% Cash
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Huh, are you within 10 years of your horizon? That is a lot of bonds. What are those bonds comprised of if you don't mind?
Hoshiyuu
post Apr 2 2023, 11:35 PM

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QUOTE(Cubalagi @ Apr 2 2023, 01:59 PM)
Abt 10 years investment horixon

Roughly 90% are govt treasuries or govt guaranteed. Another 10% are high yield (5% of portfolio). Mostly in bond ETF that freefall last year.

As mentioned, I dont have fixed allocation and can make big switches using the ETF portion.
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I see. I am really surprised because you are the first person I've encountered so far with an actual bond allocation - with the decade long bullrun, the conventional wisdom has quickly switched to having as much equities as possible to be able to catch up with inflation at least, and anything short of a 80/20 allocation have too high of a risk of running out of money before end of life.

Congratulations on making it to the wealth preservation stage/tail end of accumulation phase! What are your plans going forward this year if any?

This post has been edited by Hoshiyuu: Apr 2 2023, 11:36 PM

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