https://ivmmeta.com/WHO AnalysisWHO updated their treatment recommendations on 3/30/2021 [WHO]. For ivermectin they reported a mortality odds ratio of 0.19 [0.09-0.36] based on 7 studies with 1,419 patients. They do not specify which trials they included. The report is inconsistent, with a forest plot that only shows 4 studies with mortality results.
Despite this extremely positive result, they recommended only using ivermectin in clinical trials. The analysis contains many flaws [Kory ©]:
•Of the 57 studies (29 RCTs), they only included 16.
•They excluded all 14 prophylaxis studies (4 RCTs).
•There was no protocol for data exclusion.
•Trials included in the original UNITAID search protocol [Hill] were excluded.
•They excluded all epidemiological evidence, although WHO has considered such evidence in the past.
•They combine early treatment and late treatment studies and do not provide heterogeneity information. As above, early treatment is more successful, so pooling late treatment studies will obscure the effectiveness of early treatment. They chose not to do subgroup analysis by disease severity across trials, although treatment delay is clearly a critical factor in COVID-19 treatment, the analysis is easily done (as above), and it is well known that the studies for ivermectin and many other treatments clearly show greater effectiveness for early treatment.
•WHO downgraded the quality of trials compared to the UNITAID systematic review team [Hill] and a separate international expert guideline group that has long worked with the WHO [Bryant].
•They disregarded their own guidelines that stipulate quality assessments should be upgraded when there is evidence of a large magnitude effect (which there is), and when there is evidence of a dose-response relationship (which there is). They claim there is no dose-response relationship, while the UNITAID systematic review team found a clear relationship [Hill].
•Their risk of bias assessments do not match the actual risk of bias in studies. For example they classify [López-Medina] as low risk of bias, however this study has many issues making the results unreliable [Covid Analysis], even prompting an open letter from over 170 physicians concluding that the study is fatally flawed [Open Letter]. [Gonzalez] is also classified as low risk of bias, but is a study with very late stage severe condition high-comorbidity patients. There is a clear treatment delay-response relationship and very late stage treatment is not expected to be as effective as early treatment. Conversely, much higher quality studies were classified as high risk of bias.
•Although WHO's analysis is called a "living guideline", it is rarely updated and very out of date. As of May 14, 2021, four of the missing RCTs are known to WHO and labeled "RCTs pending data extraction" [COVID-NMA]. We added these 4, 4, 2, and one month earlier.
•A single person served as Methods Chair, member of the Guidance Support Collaboraton Committee, and member of the Living Systematic Review/NMA team.
•Public statements from people involved in the analysis suggest substantial bias. For example, a co-chair reportedly said that "the data available was sparse and likely based on chance" [Reuters]. As above, the data is comprehensive, and we estimate the probability that an ineffective treatment generated results as positive as observed to be 1 in 5 trillion (p = 0.00000000000021). The clinical team lead refers to their analysis of ivermectin as "fighting this overuse of unproven therapies ... without evidence of efficacy" [Reuters], despite the extensive evidence of efficacy from the 57 studies by 509 scientists with 18,611 patients. People involved may be more favorable to late stage treatment of COVID-19, for example the co-chair recommended treating severe COVID-19 with remdesivir [Rochwerg].
In summary, although WHO's analysis predicts that over 2 million fewer people would be dead if ivermectin was used from early in the pandemic, they recommend against use outside trials. This appears to be based primarily on excluding the majority of the evidence, and by assigning bias estimates that do not match the actual risk of bias in studies.
Use early in the pandemic was proposed by Kitasato University including the co-discoverer of ivermectin, Dr. Satoshi Ōmura. They requested Merck conduct clinical trials of ivermectin for COVID-19 in Japan, because Merck has priority to submit an application for an expansion of ivermectins indications. Merck declined [Yagisawa].
Merck AnalysisMerck has stated that there is "no scientific basis for a potential therapeutic effect against COVID-19 from pre-clinical studies". This is contradicted by many papers and studies, including [Arévalo, Bello, Choudhury, de Melo, DiNicolantonio, DiNicolantonio (B), Errecalde, Eweas, Francés-Monerris, Heidary, Jans, Jeffreys, Kalfas, Kory, Lehrer, Li, Mody, Mountain Valley MD, Qureshi, Saha, Surnar, Udofia, Wehbe, Yesilbag, Zatloukal].
They state that there is "no meaningful evidence for clinical activity or clinical efficacy in patients with COVID-19 disease". This is contradicted by numerous studies including [Afsar, Alam, Babalola, Behera, Behera (B), Bernigaud, Budhiraja, Bukhari, Cadegiani, Carvallo (B), Carvallo ©, Chaccour, Chahla, Chahla (B), Chowdhury, Elalfy, Elgazzar, Elgazzar (B), Espitia-Hernandez, Faisal, Hashim, Huvemek, Khan, Kirti, Lima-Morales, Loue, Mahmud, Merino, Mohan, Morgenstern, Mourya, Niaee, Okumuş, Samaha, Seet].
They also claim that there is "a concerning lack of safety data in the majority of studies". Safety analysis is found in [Descotes, Errecalde, Guzzo, Kory, Madrid], and safety data can be found in most studies, including [Afsar, Ahmed, Babalola, Behera (B), Bhattacharya, Biber, Bukhari, Camprubí, Carvallo, Chaccour, Chahla (B), Chowdhury, Elalfy, Elgazzar, Espitia-Hernandez, Gorial, Huvemek, Khan, Kishoria, Lima-Morales, Loue, López-Medina, Mahmud, Mohan, Morgenstern, Mourya, Niaee, Okumuş, Pott-Junior, Seet, Shahbaznejad, Shouman, Spoorthi, Szente Fonseca].
Merck has a number of conflicts of interest:
•Merck has committed to give ivermectin away for free "as much as needed, for as long as needed" in the Mectizan® Donation Program [Merck], to help eliminate river blindness.
•Merck has their own new COVID-19 treatments MK-7110 (formerly CD24Fc) [Adams] and Molnupiravir (MK-4482) [Wikipedia].
•Ivermectin is off-patent, there are many manufactureres, and Merck is unlikely to be able to compete with low cost manufacturers.
•Promoting the use of low cost off-patent medications compared to new products may be undesirable to some shareholders.
•Japan requested Merck conduct clinical trials early in the pandemic and they declined. Merck may be reluctant to admit this mistake [Yagisawa].
ConclusionIvermectin is an effective treatment for COVID-19. The probability that an ineffective treatment generated results as positive as the 57 studies to date is estimated to be 1 in 5 trillion (p = 0.00000000000021). As expected for an effective treatment, early treatment is more successful, with an estimated reduction of 78% in the effect measured using random effects meta-analysis (RR 0.22 [0.12-0.39]). 81% and 96% lower mortality is observed for early treatment and prophylaxis (RR 0.19 [0.07-0.54] and 0.04 [0.00-0.58]). Statistically significant improvements are seen for mortality, ventilation, hospitalization, cases, and viral clearance. The consistency of positive results across a wide variety of heterogeneous studies is remarkable, with 95% of the 57 studies reporting positive effects (26 statistically significant in isolation).