QUOTE(darth5zaft @ Oct 8 2021, 05:37 PM)
In my opinion,
ID or at the very least Probowo ain't stupid to continue with large military footprint doctrines. They are well versed in western doctrines of few platforms to acquired a technological edge. They afterall spend as much as SG but have no power projection capabilities compared to SG.
If you are tallking about power projection then you should look into support capabilities. Logistics is the key of power projection. Front liners need close and immediate support to survive.
Why US needs Guam? Why China builds artificial island is SCS?
How many support ship and plane ID compare to SG?
LST, LPD, Oiler ship?
Gen. McArrhur used "Leap frog" strategy to cut supply chain of Japanese forces in WWII and it was very effective. US don't need to attack every Japanese position.
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So keeping large military footprint doesn't do ID any favors at all. It just something they do before because terpaksa rather than they wanted too. ID back then has bad record in human right abuse. But most of their human right abuse stem from their inability to provide wealth to their citizens beyond java.
Human right issue is a tool of pressing in diplomatic or an excuse to invade foreign land. You have human right issue in arabs but no in Israel.
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Bebas aktif is just a nice name to we are scared of sanction to secure own country create an almost juche situation that spill to their economic situation. The lack of intergration with other countries, export & FDI created a unstable economic environment & rupiah values resulting in the lack of ability to acquired debt and thus no ability to develop their economy & infrastructure. Which created a pocket of dissented that seek seperation in the first place.
But ID economy is flourish....their public debt compare to gdp is much lower than MY.
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I don't expect modernization in TNI-AD because it's dual roles is defense & protecting the 'intergtity' of kesatuan Indonesia. They can't afford it for as long as the other islands aren't develop and wealthy. But for AF & navy they can and should modernize.
But ID army is already modernized and economy is spread across the nation.
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ID objective is to take advantage of US desperation to counter china to strengthen themselves and so by 2040 they can play abang besar kawasan. US want ID help to counter china but not to overdo it and allowed ID to be a abang besar kawasan without any kind of a leashes to tie ID.
Nothing wrong....taking advantage is a smart move.
Do you think othet nations in kawasan not doing it?
It is not the time yet to decide to support who, better prepare if war is happened.
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So they do want to move away from bebas aktif doctrines that comes at the expenses of their economy & military might. Remember the difference in MY & ID aerospace industry size? They can be bigger than us if they choose not to be bebas aktif anymore. They like us are seeking US relationship not just for defense but more so for economic purposes.
Bebas aktif is just a tool in general, but if we are at war there is no bebas aktif anymore. We join to who protect our interest and sovereignity.
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the rafales deal is there because US refuse to sell them f15 initial. F16 has limited range which make it less than ideal for operation in ID. They would need to buy a lot of F16 to cover their entire country, but they can reduce the number of jet they need by using F15 or Rafale or keep the same number of jet and be very powerful. US are reluctant to sell them F15 because of it range & technology advantage mean it can threaten Aussie & SG as well. Off course ID would ceases to be a threats when they join in and intergrated their economy & defense platforms to their neighbors & western powers. Which is what ID want to do probably.
Why Rafael and why F15? Why not only Rafael or F15?
It is ID policy to get rojak platform after they have learned what embargoed can do to them. They know they can not trust US or anyone. ID is too big to rely on someone. ID see themselves as India or Turkey. Self sufficiency is the only comfort solution.
ID have bargain position on economy and military. US and China preffer to make friend with ID.
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Buying both F15 & Rafale doesn't help ID to be more powerful, it make them weak due to the high cost of supporting multiple platforms and buying multiple missiles something that our AF has experience before. If they wanted to be strong they just choose 1 over the other like what we currently plans to do. If they ddidn't .& still acquired both then it mean they don't want to be as strong as possible. Which is good for us ( & SG too) in economics terms i guess.
Buying Rafale and F15 Will make ID strong, why not?
Logistic nighmare? Only if you can not deal with it.
Even if ID operates F-16 and F15 the logistic issue is there.You can not eliminate logistic issue. Just deal with it.
This post has been edited by Lampuajaib: Oct 9 2021, 09:27 AM