Due to the uncertainty of US economy, fund managers are looking to park their money into defensive stocks such as oil palm plantations due to good demands from india and china.

PM consumer fund sounds aggressive but actually investing into defensive stocks.

KLSE although at 1500pt but trading at PE of less than 20 times, considered not expensive. China A shares are trading at PE of 60 times. CI was at less the 500 pts during Asia Financial Crisis, but the PE then was over 40 times just before the crisis.

Just my 2 sen opinion that KLSE should perform better than regional markets in the short run of 1-3 months.The coming election has added weight.

Invest at your own risk.

This post has been edited by SKY 1809: Jan 12 2008, 04:34 PM

The data are extracted from Public Mutual Analysis, and i truly believe what they said. GDP is expected at 5-6%. The PE of CI stocks together ( Macro Economy) as compared as one stock such as cola-cola or Genting etc. I always leave the selection of individual stocks to the fund managers ( less headaches ), so long they can generate a reasonable profit i( expecting 15% profit a year ). What is the point of challenging them that i can generate more profit than them ? It is like telling your worker that you can do better job than him, ending up doing the job by yourself. After all, I only pay them 0.25 to 1.5% a year to manage my funds.

You can air your own view. For instance, i can say i can beat Tiger Wood in Golf. I can also claim that during recession, people eat only one meal a day !

This post has been edited by SKY 1809: Jan 12 2008, 05:41 PM

I leave my problems to the experts . If the experts (fund managers ) show me the charts of PE of 40 times, i do not dispute them. What i concern most is whether they can earn the money for me. And I salute fund managers who have consistently performed well for last 5 years.

This post has been edited by SKY 1809: Jan 16 2008, 08:45 PM

I never say fund managers are gods. It comes to a stage where i think i should leave my investment problems to the fund managers and i can concentrate on my routine jobs to earn an income. If you have low regards for other professionals such as fund managers, it is up to you. They have track records and i am happy with it.

This post has been edited by SKY 1809: Jan 12 2008, 06:07 PM

I believe one should argue :-

a) basing the facts rather assumptions. For example if oil palm price is on high side, then you should not assume plantation companies will make less money at the end of the day ( growth factor)

b) GDP or forecasted consensus GDP figure. Support with facts if you do not agree.

c) Track Records. If fund managers have good track records, respect them rather than passing unjust statements . Better if you provide your own investment track records here. A person with a small fund can always manage better than fund managers with billions of funds. But The freedom of webs do not give you right to criticise other people especially the specialists.

d) If you say either share mkt will go up or come down anyway . Then you are protecting yourself without basis.

If you change things here and there, basing on your own assumptions, then you are always right.

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Added on January 12, 2008, 8:06 pmThe P/E of Year 1997 is based on Year 1996 earnings and not taking into accounts of currency losses. many companies have suffered huge losses during Year 1997. Companies at that times did not report Quarterly profits and biased. PE ratio as indicated showed highest 29 times acording to Year 1996 profits ? If adjusted to Year 1997 quarterly earnings, PE ratio of 40 times is justified. A lot of arguments over this area. Prudent is the key decision factor. Share prices do reflect the future earnings of companies such as palm oil prices. Some use adjusted pe and some use pure historical pe. For example, last Year, there is an airline reported "wrong" profits, if you use adjusted pe, then you should come out with diff investment decisions.

If companies are reporting better 2007 results and higher Year 2008 forecasts, then it is reasonable to use Year 2007 earnings. If companies forecast less favorable Year 2008 results, weight is also given here. Worst case or so called conservative approach.

US listed companies do have to provide earnings warnings to public, what about Malaysia ? Events such as Sub Prime issue will have impact not only the earnings and also can write off the capital of listed companies. Hence the prices of shares drop. Likewise the CEO of US co could be forced out of office if show poor earnings. Hence, the Earnings and Price are well connected and important.

PM is only allowed to invest in Overseas from last year. Now the govenment again disallows fund fr EPf to be invested in Overseas, meaning their hands are tight. Therefore, it is fair to compare Apple with Apple, and do not use foreign funds as the yardsticks. PM is prohibited from investing in Sub Prime sectors compared to US funds, but it is good for the interest of investors. PM do compare their returns with KLCI for local funds. It is only fair that you read before making a conclusion and passing general statements. And if you think 5 years are not good enough, then take the 10 years returns.

One should take into the consideration of good and bad. If a fund could gain 200% a year, then it could suffer similar losses later, like funds invested in sub prime sector.

This part of discussion is related to PM or funds invested in unit trust. A DIY by yourself directly into KLSE should belong elsewhere. You can always highlight other local funds that can perform better than PM here.

This post has been edited by SKY 1809: Jan 14 2008, 08:57 AM

I objected to what you say that discussion is out of topics. Your earlier statements that i am wrong and therefore i have to clarify in length, long statements. Otherwise it may imply that we are bullshitting here and misleading the public. The purpose is not to show off. I have the right to defend myself if attacked.

In investing, there are many schools of thought, sharing of info is important. If you think PE is no good, you should mention a better tool for us to decide. Of course, charting could be one of solutions but out of PM topic. I would like to learn from you. I am open minded.

In PM, when we talk about PE, it is meant to be PE of CI ( as a whole). We leave our problems to the fund manager to decide on individual companies to invest. What type of PE to be used is always the jobs of fund managers , and they are the experts to decide. What i discuss is relevant to PM,and it is within the sector.
If you to compare individual PE of companies, i think it is out of the topic. Bear in mind, investing in unit trust is not just investing in a small number of companies, it is widespread. Plse understand. However, if you compare PM with MAA for example, we would like to listen to you.

Earlier you said PE during Year 1993 bull run is 30 times ( highest ) and now you say in Year 1998, there is no PE cos companies are making losses. It is fair to say the PE of none is much higher than the PE of 40 times as mentioned by me. I am saying that i could be wrong, but closer than your PE of 30 times ( all time high )

This post has been edited by SKY 1809: Jan 13 2008, 09:51 AM

You are right. To tell you the truth I am fairly new to PM. I am just a junior in PM.
But i do take the hint from PM to advise clients basing on PE for asset allocations and to switch funds.

Do you mind to share your own methods to advise your clients in particulars ? And if your clients call you up and tell you CI is at all time high of 1500 pts, amd they invested a lot with you in local funds. What would you say to them ? Thank you in advance.

This post has been edited by SKY 1809: Jan 13 2008, 11:12 AM

To tell you the truth, i invested quite heavily as an investor with my agent in PIDF. And i would like to thank her for showing me the direction like you. She helps me a lot and therefore it is fair that i have to do my home works to learn from you.

Now, i just join PM as a junior agent. But you are odeli an established Unit Trust Consultant,or Group Manager and I think this is fair that i learn from Sifu like you ! What do mean you we have fundamentals ? Do you think if i just mention the same word " fundamentals" to my clients is good enough ? Thank you.


It is just my 2 sen opinion that PIDF should have potential to go up in short run or possible 1 year period cos palm oil factor. From now on KLSE is going to be volatile cos foreign funds come and exit in bulks like the elephants ( RM 18 billions a month ). The smaller animals like the DIY individual investors have to watch their steps. And they ( hedge funds ) may see short term opportunity to invest or play in Malaysia.

But I personally would like my clients to know the Consumer Theme Fund, in the long run, it looks good ( as per info from PM ) but hard to see results in short run. The final decision come from the clients. I got client invested in PIDF now decides to put in more into Consumer Fund. As you know, it is not the goal of PM to over perform in short run of less than 1 year.

The one thing i prefer Consumer fund over China Fund cos the fund manager has the choice to increase/decrease weightages in China and it is defensive in nature. And the companies selected by PM have businesses all over the world such as Sony, Canon, LG, Samsung, Nintendo , Nestle etc. In China, they are investing into Milk Powder Co ( consumer items ) selectively and it sounds wonder to me. Consumer spending is on the uptrend in Asia ( includes India ). And consumer spending in US could improve after US election. The new US Government is likely to be better than Bush Adm from economics point of view. I just predict rather making assumptions. you can disagree, no doubt . I believe the fund would not invest a lot in China until China mkt corrects substantially.

This post has been edited by SKY 1809: Jan 14 2008, 12:25 AM

Thank you for your compliment. I think i have a lot more to learn from you.

Personally ( for my own personal investment with cash ), I may still go for PIDF to get a net 15% return before switching to CT. For clients, they always have doubts when CI is over 1500pts. Therefore, it is easier to start the topic with CT. If they ask for my personal opinion, i would recommend 2 options such as:-

a) To get a small return fr PIDF before switching to CT.
b) Investing directly to CT, as you say patient is needed here.

The final decision rest with clients.By doing so, we do not have to talk so much about KLSE whether can perform after the election and so on. Mind to share yours.

I just sold my PFEDF recently with a net 20% return, actually nothing to shout about because many other people can do much better than me. But i am happy with it for the following reasons :-

a) i am a moderate risk profile investor , therefore a 20% return a year exceeds my risk profile expectation.
b) The money comes from my EPF with annual distribution of average 5% a year. Therefore i personally think that my fund outperforms by 4 times ( rough comparison and is not apple to apple ). Money in EPF to me is Wealth Conservation Fund but can drop in value due to inflation.
c) Try to practise the asset allocation model, moving some money back to bond fund as the PE is getting higher. The PE factor overrides my original goal of 5 years investment plan. Bond Fund of late is not performing but i use it for safe parking purpose. I am prepared to move the money
back to Dividend Fund once the PE is at my comfort zone. I am still keeping my PIDF investment which is investing in Palm Oil Companies. Therefore i do not have to over concern when the CI is at 1500pts, and taking
a 5 years time horizon investment. I am also keen to take profit for a net 20% return.


I am just sharing and be more transparent but do not suggest you to do the same things. Anyone or the moderator cares to share his or her plan, I am keen to learn from you.

Once again, thank you for your support.


regards.

This post has been edited by SKY 1809: Jan 14 2008, 11:29 AM

I based my PE from PM. Other stock broking banks have them too, but there is no standardisation like the ISO. So you may get confused if you compare here and there.

PM do have PEs for regional markets, and the the benchmarks Hang Seng etc. PM is not investing all over the world, so world PE is a bit out.

But, in USA, they have world index ex US and US index, Asia ex Japan etc. Indexes too could be used to measure stocks performance. But KLCI is at 1500pts all time high, so measurement by index is a bit obsolete for the time being.

This post has been edited by SKY 1809: Jan 14 2008, 04:06 PM

You are the big brother here. If you say so, I follow.

But in all investment plans, you need to have an exit plan. No Plan = Planning to fail. Are you the one who says it ?

"Investing is not Risky, Being out of control is Risky" . " ( Robert Kiyosaki )

Don"t leave your clients to suffer after investing with you They will come back to haunt you in your dreams !

This post has been edited by SKY 1809: Jan 17 2008, 08:32 AM

Talk like an expert odeli.

You should be using the " Seminar Selling " concept to market PM, rather talking to "one to one". I believe you have all the talents to do that in a successful manner.

Just my humble opinion. Do not intend to flame you.

Buying Unit Trust is like investing in shares, however you need to consider a longer time horizon like at least 3 to 5 years to see the real returns because of the ups and downs of the markets worldwide.

There is no such thing as to buy the lowest and sell the highest. But you have to ask yourself whether there is any potential for the fund to grow such as PCSF for medium and long term.

In Unit Trust, we always advise people to do some dollar cost averaging especially when the market is moving downwards, because you tend to get more units. If the price subsequently go up, you would benefit from this
practice.

In practice, investors choose to invest when market is good ( high ) and stop investing when market is bad ( or low ). I would not say this is the wrong way, but the returns might not be that effective as dollar cost averaging method.

As evidence from the past, investors using the dollar cost averaging method tend to gain more. The dollar cost averaging always works well with Asset Allocations meaning you would take advantage when market is high by switching to bond fund part by part. switching back to equity when market is low.

People say there is no right or wrong way of investing, but you have to be open minded and prepared to hear what others have to say. From there, you make your own decisions.

I may not be answering directly to your question, but just want to share with you another Option that you may want to consider. WE want to work out a win-win situation for our customers and us.

This post has been edited by SKY 1809: Feb 19 2008, 07:42 PM

In order to help you to see a clearer picture , I use KLCI as an example :-

KLCI started from about Year 80 with 100 pts . Right now even with recession fear , it is trading above 1300 pts, meaning it is always on the upwards trend, but not a a single straight line up. In between, there are Asia Crisis, Sept 11, SARS etc that cause serious corrections.

If an investor let say jump off or sell off during the crisis would tend to suffer more or losing money. Those stay put would eventually be able to sell at a gain.

And those prepared to invest more ( do dollor cost averaging ) during the crisis would tend to gain further bcos they get more units.

That is why we are promoting Unit Trust as 5 more years time horizon investments.

Currently, it is my personal opinion that China this year could be in a consolidating due to overheating of economy and impact of US economy, but should be good in the medium term.

If you are medium term investor, the impact on you would be less though current price is low.

For equity fund whether you are prepared to switch to bond fund partially when price or valuation is high or stay put is your personal choice. Balance fund is in 50% equity and 50% bond, and it stays invested in that manner, might not take advantage when market is low or high


Again, from KLCI chart, it is not upwards on a straight line.

Public Mutual has the softwares to show you whether to stay invested or stop investing according to past chartings. You would see a clearer picture if you go through the softwares and investing with virtual money. Dollar cost averaging downwards do have certain advantages.

You can approach your agent to discuss further.

This post has been edited by SKY 1809: Feb 19 2008, 12:35 AM

As my earlier discussions.

I personally prefer Consumer Fund, i.e might have a better potential over PCSF . might be wrong anyway. Too early to tell.

Asean regional funds should be good too, no doubt about it.

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Added on February 20, 2008, 1:11 pmP/S : I pick Consumer Theme over China Theme.

This post has been edited by SKY 1809: Feb 20 2008, 01:11 PM

China inflation rate is above 7% in the month of January 08, could be double digit for February 08.

Food inflation as high as 17%.

just read a research paper.

Our market would be quite bumpy from now on. Foreign Funds Managers are selling their positions too.

Petrol price is most likely be up after GE , and would have some impact on our economy.

P/S > It should not be affecting you if you are medium term investors ( 3 to 5 years )

This post has been edited by SKY 1809: Feb 21 2008, 07:21 PM

Thank you for your compliment.

We are glad to hear that you took some profits on your investments acted on good advices from Public Mutual agents.

We believe you have moved your money to bond funds to earn some interest, also in the right direction.

You might want to re invest back to take advantage of the attractive market conditions later on.

If you have any doubts, you can always bring it out here, so we can try our best to assist you.

Regards.

This post has been edited by SKY 1809: Feb 22 2008, 08:19 PM

DJ MARKET TALK: KLCI Down 2.5%; 1270-1275 May Offer Support - 2008-03-05 07:08:00.0



0708 GMT [Dow Jones] KLCI down 2.5% at 1280.95, as foreign fund selling pressure continued to weigh across all sectors, coupled with recent market downgrade by CLSA, dealers say. Volume traded thin at 469 million shares changing hands, with decliners outpacing gainers 688 to 66. Bearish sentiment triggered by subprime crisis in U.S. also raising concern global economic growth may be affected from ripple effect of slowdown at the world's largest economy. Dealers say KLCI may extend losses, possibly fall to around 1270-1275 range in late afternoon trade. KLCI March Futures contract now down 17.5 points at 1269.5, or 11-point discount to cash. "The report card on Malaysia so far hasn't been favorable and it's best to park our money outside the country for a while until the government shows a more pro-business environment," says fund manager at foreign house. Among biggest decliners, Bumiputra-Commerce (1023.KU) down 2% at MYR10, Sime Darby (4197.KU) down 1.8% at MYR10.90, and IOI Corp. (1961.KU) down 4.5% at MYR7.45. (ALE)

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Added on March 5, 2008, 5:52 pmPNB is selling Sime heavily ( PIDF's stock ) , check the form filing today.

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Added on March 5, 2008, 6:13 pm FDI OR FOREIGN DIRECT INVESTMENTS come in Malaysia in record numbers last year. But sad to say , many still pending approvals for implementations. not " Pro Business " right ?

Just for sharing purposes.

This post has been edited by SKY 1809: Mar 6 2008, 09:02 AM