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 Public Mutual, PM/PB series fund

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SKY 1809
post Jul 7 2008, 08:30 AM

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QUOTE(howszat @ Jul 7 2008, 12:13 AM)
The thing is with sector-specific funds is that they normally fall into the aggressive categories which means the fund can either do very well, or do very badly. And because fund managers are constrained by what they can invest in or out of, this potentially makes things worse when times are not good.

While Telco may sound promising, it is not necessarily reflected in the share price. A good example is China Mobile.

It's a case of investor beware, a lot more so than say a balanced fund.
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Yes, I agree with you.

With high inflation and high building material costs, investing in Far East share markets is never been easy.

And yet this fund is sector specific that requires high capital expenditures, normally taking longer time to break even for new projects, like the case of 3 or 3.5G.

It is my personal opinion that the timing is not very right ( though not right to time the market ) , taking longer period to see the real results. And as you say, it could be very profitable too in good times.

This post has been edited by SKY 1809: Jul 7 2008, 09:15 AM
SKY 1809
post Jul 8 2008, 01:01 AM

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QUOTE(Jordy @ Jul 8 2008, 12:08 AM)
I would like to state my opinion here, if you don't mind me quoting you smile.gif
The fund should be investing in established telco and construction corporations in the Far East.
One example of this is China Mobile, CCCC or China Railway.
The advantage of this is that these corporations have the infrastructure and service in place, and they are growing.
So, investing in these corporations would mean getting fruits from the matured trees.
Telco companies don't really need a lot of capex once their infrastructure is completed, but just need maintenance expenses.
So, they have the ability to pay out high dividend in good times or expand their businesses in bad times.

This is my 2 cents on this fund, and a brief run-through of the fund gave me a good impression.
I still have yet to go deep into the details, but there is still time for it now smile.gif
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For the purpose of sharing knowledge. could be wrong anyway.

Telcos in Europe are in serious troubles now bcos they are rushing into 3G with massive debts, but losing money. According to CEO of DIGI.

Likewise, in Malaysia, Telcos are making money on the older tech i.e 2 or 2.5 G, losing money on 3G. HK telco is losing ton of money on 3G too. While in Japan, one big Telco nearly collapsed bcos of 3G years back.

In fact 3G was launched many years back, and yet many telcos are still losing money. How long can they last ? Or when do you expect 3G to bear fruits ? The trees are getting old also. 4G tech is on the way.

The other problem is steel price in Malaysia is valid for 3 days. So how are you going to tender for projects ? Same could happen in Far East.

You still need to plant new trees for the next gen, right ? So who bears the costs ?

This post has been edited by SKY 1809: Jul 8 2008, 04:41 PM
SKY 1809
post Jul 8 2008, 10:52 AM

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You may have invested in the right stocks, then again windfall tax is going to be widespread across in Far East. Again, return on your investment is limited.

This post has been edited by SKY 1809: Jul 8 2008, 10:55 AM
SKY 1809
post Jul 8 2008, 12:05 PM

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QUOTE(leekk8 @ Jul 8 2008, 11:58 AM)
Yes, 3G and 3.5G are the big challenges for Telco now. Maxis and Celcom do not seemed like making good money from 3G, the biggest problem is the quality. Since the 3G service is not cheap, quality must be good to get more subscribers on that.

As I know, China has not launched 3G officially, but in HK, Spore and Taiwan, there are. As what Jordy said, telco spent a lot to implement the infrastructure, after that, just maintain the service quality to make money.

In fact, from my experience in telco line, telco main profit comes from international business, like IDD and roaming. smile.gif
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Not mean to argue , but the past does not present the future.

The futures of communications are internet centred. Correct me if I am wrong.

IDDs and international business are losing to internet based communications, cost is much cheaper and you can see and send photos too ( of goods you want to buy ) , and with CCTVs you can see your workers working in China while you are in Malaysia.

In fact, WIFI could a strong competitor for Telcos too.

P/S : to maintain the services only ? do not forget of the huge debts they need to pay interests. I was told PLUS used up to 70% of revenues to pay interests when listed . Genting's UK casinos : the loan interest is as high as the gross profit.

And how sure which TECHOLOGY works best in future and people will surely buy ?

http://biz.thestar.com.my/news/story.asp?f...89&sec=business

http://biz.thestar.com.my/news/story.asp?f...77&sec=business

This post has been edited by SKY 1809: Jul 8 2008, 01:58 PM
SKY 1809
post Jul 8 2008, 12:39 PM

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QUOTE(Jordy @ Jul 8 2008, 12:32 PM)
Well, what we're saying is that from now up to the next 10 years, we could still see increasing number of phone users. So, there is still opportunity for a "short" long term investment into telco. The only worry is that with the earthquake in Sichuan, telcos there might need to spend some chunk of money to rebuild the lost infrastructures there.

Just my 2 cents for discussion purposes.
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Yes, no offence.

We are in a healthy discussion, that is all.

Over projection of fund's performance is also unfair to investors.

Do not mean to flame anyone.



This post has been edited by SKY 1809: Jul 8 2008, 01:57 PM
SKY 1809
post Jul 9 2008, 05:49 PM

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QUOTE(leekk8 @ Jul 9 2008, 03:15 PM)
Just share my opinion here. The communications are going to be internet centred, I can say yes. In fact, why internet can be cheaper than making call? It's because internet is using IP while GSM is using E1, where the cost is higher than IP. Anyway, most of the telco now are changing their bearer from E1 to IP, to cut down the cost and increase profit margin.

International roaming business cannot be replaced by internet based communication, as mobile phone is much more convenient than a laptop with internet access. Both of these have their own role to play. I believe in Asia currently, its hard to get free WIFI around town (at least KL still don't have currently), if we want to access to the internet using mobile phone, we still need to hook up to 3G or HSDPA network.

IDD calls now are much lower rate than previously. I myself make international calls quite often, I still prefer to call using mobile phone instead of chat through internet, as the quality is better. Internet is good for transferring files.
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I beg to differ.
Telekom and DIGI WIFI hot spots, starbuck and coffebeans....and many others. Cheaper costs , free or not is another issue. Office buildings in KL do have WIFI and free for staff. Free in Malaysia culture means no good. Zero quality service.

Point to Point , office to office , Corporate to Corporate --- Internet based Communications ....emails. MSN . skype , ICQ , Video conferencing and messages put in in Youtube, etc . I am talking also the future and the directions of telecommucations. Even James Bond also prefers internet based comm, just joking.

Internet based comm. Quality is quite a concern, but 11 Billions are to be pumped in soon to improve this area.

http://biz.thestar.com.my/news/story.asp?f...77&sec=business

This post has been edited by SKY 1809: Jul 9 2008, 08:19 PM
SKY 1809
post Jul 9 2008, 06:32 PM

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QUOTE(yieloon @ Jul 9 2008, 06:26 PM)
Where do you guys get the information that Telcos are losing money on 3G?
They are only losing money few years back because there wasn't much 3G users that time. But now almost everyone has a 3G phone.

China haven't even launched their 3G Network, it seem the government haven't release the 3G frequency to the operator.
And most of the cost of building telecommunication network is absorb by the vendor like NSN, Huawei and Ericsson before it is handed to the operator.
Lastly, the price for a 3G site and 2G site is the same. And 3G site have more capacity thus it is actually cheaper for a new operator to start up a 3G network rather than a 2G network.
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Got 3G phone does not mean got 3G access. Low quality is a concern. What about smaller towns in Malaysia ? HOW MANY HANDPHONE CALLS YOU MAKE A DAY AND IT IS USED WITH 3G TECH ? 3G VOICE PHONE CANNOT WORK ALONE ! IT TAKES 2 PARTIES.


CHINA IS DEVELOPING 4G .

This post has been edited by SKY 1809: Jul 9 2008, 07:02 PM
SKY 1809
post May 27 2009, 08:10 AM

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QUOTE(Medufsaid @ May 26 2009, 10:59 PM)
You don't need to. You just need to research/read books that teach you how to tell where KLCI or other indexes are heading (Dow, Nasdaq). A unit trust is designed to follow those indexes.
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Sure boh ?

The authors must be pretty rich by now.

If that is the case, we should send our children to learn only INVESTMENTS in schools , a sure way to succeed in life.

All investment graduates ( or masters ) must be billionaires or at least millionaires by now.

But many experts said the same thing about our market in the beginning of Year 2009 , that Bursa would perform poorly for 1 and 2 Q, 2009. Many small time investors took their advices to sell down. So far , I have not come across any early researches that CI would touch 1050pts in Q2. Kindly enlighten me if you have something to share with.

Might be sell low and buy back high later if CI does not fall back to 850pts.

Hope to learn more from you. notworthy.gif

This post has been edited by SKY 1809: May 27 2009, 08:25 AM

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