DJ MARKET TALK: Malaysia Rates Could Be Cut By End-2Q: BarCap - 2008-03-11 01:48:00.0



0148 GMT [Dow Jones] Barclays Capital notes Malaysia election results a blow to PM Badawi's standing, says stock market sentiment likely hurt ahead of pending leadership challenge at UMNO party elections, which could happen as early as June. "With the PM battling for political survival, the planned June 2008 cut in fuel subsidies - intended to unlock MYR30 billion to jumpstart 9th Malaysia Plan projects - will be shelved." Given inflationary pressures likely stay subdued as a result, "our view is that policy rates could be reduced as early as end-2Q in support of economic growth." Adds, "Most importantly, the massive turn in electoral sentiment reflects a national call for change and not a leaning towards a particular racial or religious bias. To us, this indicates that the political transition is likely to be peaceful." (CNG)


Just for sharing purposes.

2nd thought of Asean related Funds :-

I used to think the Asean could be the best among all the funds, but recent events made me think otherwise :-

High inflation would affect every country no doubt, but will affect Asean more because of political instability :-

1) Thailand, former PM is back in town, could be more political storms on the way. People in the countryside like him, those in the urban areas hate him. Stock market could not boom with political instability.


2) Indonesia - high inflation if any could overturn the government as in the past. Chinese again could be blamed for the bad economy if any. Stock market could not boom with political instability.

3) Vietnam- Stock market oledi up 400% in the last 3 years. What goes up might come down one day.

4) Malaysia - not pro business at all. Local political issues are getting worse than better. People suffered high inflation before GE. Now, worse bcos they are going to be penalised. Street demo are now "allowed" for certain political mileage. And If Foreign Direct Investments pull out, many people in the street would lose their jobs. Although there is no sub prime issue in Malaysia , our governments whether BN or BA/BR do not take advantage of. There could be a reason why FF want to invest in our country ( Safe haven ) .

Leaders urged to resolve uncertainty

http://biz.thestar.com.my/news/story.asp?f...02&sec=business

5) Burma - still living in dark age.

6) Singapore - oledi a matured economy. Got involvements in sub prime issue.

7) Cambodia - still got many problems with FDI.

Where else of Asean is good then ? Stock markets could not boom with political instability.


China if able to overcome inflation is still a good place to invest in the long run. Investors always view political issue seriously.

Just my 2sen opinion.

Just for discussion purpose. No intention to flame anyone.

This post has been edited by SKY 1809: Mar 15 2008, 05:44 PM

One cannot assume the good performance of stock markets, that would translate to better lifestyle of people in general, by right it should but :-

Let take a look at our stock market, our CI touched all time high this year, and yet people are not happy with our government, and BN could not get a 2/3 majority. It means the people in the street generally are not getting the real benefits. The boom is quite artificial in many ways ( unlike the earlier bull runs ) . Unemployment of fresh graduates are in large number. People in general have money only for the basic items , day to day needs. The boom does not translate into better pay and bonus for working class. With real inflation of 8%, their spending power is in fact less.

The booms of share markets in Indonesia and Vietnam do translate into better living for their people in generally. Small business people feel the booms in their retail businesses for example.

On the other hand, retired people wake up and suddenly come to know that they have to pay tax of 26% on their dividends. Whereas , another group of investors are getting 10 years tax free status.

We have mega projects, but people in the street do not feel the impact. Only the rich are getting richer or super rich. In order to jump start the mega projects, the government might need also to increase the fuel prices.

The economy , stock market and politics co exist, cannot be separated.

Talking about Indonesia, the political issue has been there for more than 50 years, so you mean 50 years are still considered short term by your definition ? In term of attracting FDIs, they are losing out to Vietnam, why ?

Big part of funds, payments and receipts are done through Singapore, meaning their business people are keeping their money in Singapore, but doing business in Indonesia. The trust is absence.

I do believe Indonesia could do better in times to come. Indonesia exports workers in millions to other countries for so many years. These workers, many had learned how others live a better lifestyle in other parts of the world, and now back in their own country. These people would able to help the government to transform the economy. They have also the spending power like getting better education for their children etc. This could lead to the stability of their Government.

Overall, business community in Asia think that Indonesia could be the next potential country to invest. Without the NEP, it could be better in the eyes of investors.

Back to our country, since we introduced the currency control way back, the foreign funds and FDI were virtually absent for more than 5 to 8 years. Is it very short period too by your definition ?

In PM, are you asking your clients to stay invested for the next 20 years or so to get the real benefits ?

Remember, clients' money is at stake. Clients' interests always come first.


Just for sharing purpose.

This post has been edited by SKY 1809: Mar 17 2008, 11:21 AM

Technically, US might not be going into recession. In fact, people could sell commodities to move back to stocks or assets held in US currency.

Won't it be too late to sell shares to move to bond now especially you are involved in oversea investments ?

Stock markets are yardsticks of economies 6 to 12 months ahead.


For discussion purpose.

This post has been edited by SKY 1809: May 4 2008, 09:29 AM

You are entitled to your own views. That is the beauty of the blog.

I believe there is a connection between the past, present and the future.

It is all up to the individual concerned, and I view the future seriously because I am still learning from W Buffet, and I subscribe to his ideas. I think he is forward thinker, seeing things that could happen in the future.

Investing would be made simpler if one is to consider only the past and the present, presuming there is no future.

Genting's casinos are packed at this moment, and yet people are looking forward to their future performance, like the oversea's investments etc.

Likewise, Maybank share price could go wild next week not because of attractive past and present valuations, Investors are generally not comfortable with the future of that country, Pakistan. If you fall in love with that country, then you may want buy more of Maybank's shares.


Not a right or wrong method either.

This post has been edited by SKY 1809: May 4 2008, 03:09 PM

Can you name a STOCK EXCHANGE OF THIS WORLD that do not have the elements you just mentioned, Russia or China ?

You have every right to say so.

People live in a country where many things are under control , price control. Even the inflation is under control , mere 3%.

Other important things like Tolls are not under control for some political reasons.

Yes, I do agree with you it is a not good measurement, due to what I just mentioned.

This post has been edited by SKY 1809: May 4 2008, 05:01 PM

Can you share a little bit more of your investment method for the benefits of us.

I believe in sharing and learning from others.

If you think long term basically you are talking about the future, and not long term in the past ?

Critising others but keeping everything to himself , to me is quilty , though not an offence.

This post has been edited by SKY 1809: May 4 2008, 11:54 PM

Did my above statement imply to ask people to go for short term investments of 6 to 12 months ?

This post has been edited by SKY 1809: May 5 2008, 12:14 AM

I see no body is interested in the Consumer Theme Fund.

I believe this fund should do reasonably well in time to come, consumer spending is strong in Asia ( Malaysia could be exceptional ).

The way I look at it, Bursa could under perform this year.

That is the beauty of investing in Unit Trusts.

For investments with cash, you do not have to depend on Bursa. You go where the potentials are.

You can hardly buy foreign companies ( with operations in oversea ) listed in Bursa. Of course, you can invest in call warrants, but could lose a fortune if not careful.

Fund Switching to oversea investments is so simple. Do not really have to monitor the local politics.

This post has been edited by SKY 1809: May 6 2008, 09:46 AM

Many people are surprised to see inflation rate of 8.5% in a booming economy like China.

People also forget that in a not so booming economy like Malaysia, the unofficial inflation rate could be as high as 8%. About 7% in Singapore. Malaysia's economy could collapse before China does, if not properly managed and with political uncertainty.

Even In US , like or not likely into recession, inflation is catching up.

Things generally bad in world perspective, not just China alone.

This post has been edited by SKY 1809: May 12 2008, 06:49 PM

Yes , you are right.

Fund managers are buying long term and do not overly concerned on quarterly performance/ equities. They do not speculate ( unlike hedge funds ). They are also trying to avoid the cost of buying and selling. However, if there is a big change in the fundamental, then they do accordingly.

just my 2sen.

Kind of agree to what you say, climbing the ladder and doing the leveraging. It is wonderful, no doubt about it. From PMA side, at least I have another option.

To me , I put this business as one of the core financial services, meaning I can still do other things that fit into my mind, like working together with other financial planners to provide one stop financial services.



Not the right or wrong way ( either yours or mine ).

Anyway, thanks for the valued advice given here.

This post has been edited by SKY 1809: Jun 28 2008, 02:59 PM

In theory, you are right. In practice, it might not.

You grow and so your upline grows.

In theory, if you are super salesperson, that it is logical to sell more basing on your ability and limitations.

But in life, a good sales person is deemed to be a good team leader, so you are told to do recruiting.

All would be good to you anyway.

But in life we may have to pay a price , i.e is to give up the other ( if you have a steady job/income and you are happy with it ).

So is the price is really worth for it, you have to decide.

This post has been edited by SKY 1809: Jun 28 2008, 09:36 PM

Has anyone heard of Corporate Unit Trust Adviser or CUTA ?

Marketing unit trusts from multiple fund managers vs one channel.

This post has been edited by SKY 1809: Jul 2 2008, 09:16 AM

Thank you for sharing.

I do have CFP and RFP, but practising only partially.

There is a seminar going tomorrow, and my schedule is quite tight, otherwise I would go with an opened minded,

The other set back is the agency system of recruiting people ( advantages ) under us might not work under CUTA ( need to know more ). And set up cost could be quite high ( like getting licence from SC). Also problem of getting a good partner.


Anyway, just exploring other ways to enhance our incomes, and not doing any promotion here.

This post has been edited by SKY 1809: Jul 2 2008, 09:14 AM

Yes, I do provide advices, but mainly to the business people in SME group, and not to the individuals.

Most of the more successful FP are targeting the High Net Worth group.

I go for SMEs.

Thanks for your suggestions, I keep it in mind.

This post has been edited by SKY 1809: Jul 2 2008, 09:21 AM

@Kingkong

Those who buy with a monthly standing instruction with the bank tend to gain more compared to one off purchase ( in a down trend market )

I do agree with what you say.

Timing to buy at the bottom is quite impossible, and you get to know the bottoms only the markets are up substantially ( when you wait and see that it is really a bottom ).


My 2sen opinion.

This post has been edited by SKY 1809: Jul 5 2008, 10:05 AM

Yes, I agree.

I believe it is a good selling tool for agents.

Investing into UT in this manner , to a small extent , could assist to overcome the fear factor of someone , who is to invest directly in Bursa.

Just my 2 sen.