Feb 28 2024, 05:07 PM
QUOTE(tutuyao @ Feb 28 2024, 02:43 PM)
still ok lah bro.. not all uncle aunties yet..
anyway, on the serious side.
based on the FOMC meeting minutes, we're anticipating a 3 times rate cuts this year, total of 75 basis points.
Since the inflation for the US and global is coming down, most professional traders are looking at the core CPI and PCE data.
This thursday night 9.30pm (MY time) they'll release another round of core PCE data. That'll give traders an idea what is the feds' monetary policy going to be.
IF.. I'm saying if.. the core PCE drops, then it's a sign that inflation continues to tame and we should expect the first rate cut to happen by June.
IF... The inflation is sticky, then like what the chairman of feds, Jerome Powell said, he'll keep the rates high longer.
However, don't forget that this year is US election year. Biden is having a hard time because the opposition party AKA Trump is coming in hot and strong.
So Biden will definitely push the stock market and crypto up by easing the monetary policy, AKA QE to please the voters.
Once you understand the money supply policy, you'll know why crypto had a big crash during 2021 and 2022 because of QT.
Now is no longer QT but we're waiting for QE to happen officially. And traders are already jumping into the boat waiting for the QE to be official.
US monetary supply will affect the stock & crypto price A LOT.. And 1 more, US gov has approved spot bitcoin ETF. What does it tell you? They want to crush it or pump it?
(Above are just solely my opinion. Stock market is dynamic, anything can happen that can change the direction of the market. If Putin suddenly start a WW3, then whatever I said above is shit. So please do your own research.)
Does you mean crypto and stocks will continue to rise in the meantime?anyway, on the serious side.
based on the FOMC meeting minutes, we're anticipating a 3 times rate cuts this year, total of 75 basis points.
Since the inflation for the US and global is coming down, most professional traders are looking at the core CPI and PCE data.
This thursday night 9.30pm (MY time) they'll release another round of core PCE data. That'll give traders an idea what is the feds' monetary policy going to be.
IF.. I'm saying if.. the core PCE drops, then it's a sign that inflation continues to tame and we should expect the first rate cut to happen by June.
IF... The inflation is sticky, then like what the chairman of feds, Jerome Powell said, he'll keep the rates high longer.
However, don't forget that this year is US election year. Biden is having a hard time because the opposition party AKA Trump is coming in hot and strong.
So Biden will definitely push the stock market and crypto up by easing the monetary policy, AKA QE to please the voters.
Once you understand the money supply policy, you'll know why crypto had a big crash during 2021 and 2022 because of QT.
Now is no longer QT but we're waiting for QE to happen officially. And traders are already jumping into the boat waiting for the QE to be official.
US monetary supply will affect the stock & crypto price A LOT.. And 1 more, US gov has approved spot bitcoin ETF. What does it tell you? They want to crush it or pump it?
(Above are just solely my opinion. Stock market is dynamic, anything can happen that can change the direction of the market. If Putin suddenly start a WW3, then whatever I said above is shit. So please do your own research.)
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