Welcome Guest ( Log In | Register )

Outline · [ Standard ] · Linear+

 Gamers lead the way to fuck up wallstreet, Gamers did what communists failed.

views
     
empyreal
post Jan 28 2021, 10:11 PM

Look at all my stars!!
Group Icon
Elite
2,036 posts

Joined: Feb 2007
From: KL


QUOTE(deodorant @ Jan 28 2021, 10:04 PM)
some will die rah. Imagine those that went in at $100-200. They will hold hold hold until the whole thing crashes back to gamestop's fair value price of $5 or whatever. Most will manage to get out with profits, the slowpokes will lose their investment. Among these slowpokes surely will have some idiots who all in all their life savings type.
*
If some people believe that a perpetually loss making company with not much growth prospect is worth 300usd a pop, id say theyre brave.
empyreal
post Jan 28 2021, 10:15 PM

Look at all my stars!!
Group Icon
Elite
2,036 posts

Joined: Feb 2007
From: KL


QUOTE(andrewcha @ Jan 28 2021, 10:12 PM)
Is this kind the same thing happen last year about the crude oil that goes negative for awhile before bounce back? Me noob need more guidance from /k.
*
Not exactly the same, but the underlying herd mentality speculation is the same.
empyreal
post Jan 28 2021, 10:19 PM

Look at all my stars!!
Group Icon
Elite
2,036 posts

Joined: Feb 2007
From: KL


QUOTE(billyboy @ Jan 28 2021, 10:15 PM)
if you don't understand what is a Short Squeeze, then no point talking about valuation and price with you
*
Youre going to tell me that youve made a valuation? Honestly, now.
empyreal
post Jan 28 2021, 10:28 PM

Look at all my stars!!
Group Icon
Elite
2,036 posts

Joined: Feb 2007
From: KL


QUOTE(TrialGone @ Jan 28 2021, 10:21 PM)
It's not "some people" though. Cause of short squeeze ironically it's the investment companies themselves who tried to shortsell that is causing the stock price to rise. That's what make this investment story so interest and case study.
*
It is, but im not talking about why its happening. im saying once everything settles the price wont be 300 because its not worth 300.

Its an in-and-out play, but at the end of it someone's going to be holding the bag.

QUOTE(billyboy @ Jan 28 2021, 10:21 PM)
user posted image
*
Youre not the only one with a terminal. Im asking for your valuation.
empyreal
post Jan 28 2021, 10:32 PM

Look at all my stars!!
Group Icon
Elite
2,036 posts

Joined: Feb 2007
From: KL


QUOTE(bumpo @ Jan 28 2021, 10:30 PM)
this should be a realization, an eureka moment, where the company performance have nothing to do with stock values  laugh.gif  laugh.gif
*
You know youre old when youre not taking punts anymore
empyreal
post Jan 28 2021, 11:02 PM

Look at all my stars!!
Group Icon
Elite
2,036 posts

Joined: Feb 2007
From: KL


QUOTE(AllnGap @ Jan 28 2021, 10:50 PM)
you still dont get it do you ??
at current prices, there are still 100% of shares not paid back yet.
means funds are still doing 100% naked shorts.
the bagholder at the end is the hedge funds + original owners
*
Assuming things like counterparty risks arent a thing.
empyreal
post Jan 28 2021, 11:07 PM

Look at all my stars!!
Group Icon
Elite
2,036 posts

Joined: Feb 2007
From: KL


QUOTE(andrewcha @ Jan 28 2021, 10:57 PM)
So whats the intention of the people who keeps on buying the shares prices so high? To bankrupt those hedge fund? No wonder the Youtube said that these kind of things is a norm to hedge fund. Now they kena gamed they're saying is unethical.
*
Some funds would suffer losses, but funds dont all trade one way - wouldnt be surprised if some other funds are joining in to buy on a momentum play.
empyreal
post Jan 28 2021, 11:20 PM

Look at all my stars!!
Group Icon
Elite
2,036 posts

Joined: Feb 2007
From: KL


QUOTE(AllnGap @ Jan 28 2021, 11:06 PM)
what counter party risks involved ?

the people that afraid of counter party risks are the hedge funds, stock brokers and banks
as they are the ones that havent cover their position.
*
E.g. if the intent of some of the retail investors is to 'bankrupt the hedge funds', then they wont be able to pay - (one type of) counterparty risk.

Not a common thing during normal markets, but its one way contracts end.

empyreal
post Jan 28 2021, 11:24 PM

Look at all my stars!!
Group Icon
Elite
2,036 posts

Joined: Feb 2007
From: KL


QUOTE(nerdook @ Jan 28 2021, 11:08 PM)
Even funnier if Melvin Capital actually secretly went long already, then the wsb gang actually helping them recoup the loss.
*
QUOTE(blackie19 @ Jan 28 2021, 11:09 PM)
That’s a given. There are whales on the long side too.
*
Yeah, thats why i dont get the anti-wall street thing. Its just people making a play. The text is just flavour.
empyreal
post Jan 28 2021, 11:28 PM

Look at all my stars!!
Group Icon
Elite
2,036 posts

Joined: Feb 2007
From: KL


QUOTE(AllnGap @ Jan 28 2021, 11:25 PM)
frankly i dont mind to burn a kapchai in this.

this is a historical moment
*
If youre in early youd make money, no probs. Just be careful to take profit.

Good luck mate.
empyreal
post Feb 1 2021, 10:01 AM

Look at all my stars!!
Group Icon
Elite
2,036 posts

Joined: Feb 2007
From: KL


QUOTE(wanted111who @ Feb 1 2021, 09:44 AM)
Actually the owner did try to save their business when they knew their company shares is short.

Having said that, It is possible for their company to dilute their shares, and devalue the current owner share price + the risk of them not owning the company anymore. IDK if this is smart moves by the owner or owner want to make this move.

Owner selling their shares without diluting and exit the business will not work. The short is over 100%. Biggest shareholder only own 2.36 million shares, but the short shares is around 6 million? Point is short is over what is available in the market.
*
If they want to save their business, thats exactly what they would do. Issuing new shares means free money into the company. No matter how high the stock prices go it doesnt mean anything for gamestop itself.

At the core of it, gamestop is a loss-making business. If they want to keep it, theyll issue new shares to inject new capital at elevated values. If they dont want to keep it, they'll reduce their own positions. Either way, it doesnt make sense for the owners to do nothing.
empyreal
post Feb 1 2021, 02:12 PM

Look at all my stars!!
Group Icon
Elite
2,036 posts

Joined: Feb 2007
From: KL


QUOTE(wanted111who @ Feb 1 2021, 01:15 PM)
From what I read is the owner have new plan to change their concept, the gaming industries itself is not outdated. What outdate is physical copy of games.

Yes, you're right, no matter how high their shares goes, they do not get anything from it (no new capital) until unless they issue new shares, what the share price did is it increase their market cap so they can issue more new shares. And unless they issue 120% shares or at very minimum 70% shares,  the hf will still be trapped in short squeeze.

And it is not normal for company to issue 100% new shares, also even if they do, who know that it will not be snatch by retail investor? Many eye was on it globally.

Issuing 70%-100% of new company shares is as good as giving away the company to other people. Unless the owner themselves secure a major portion of it.

What I read is owner was desperately trying to save their company from being short , this mean the owner do want to keep their business. But again I just read this online and I don't know for sure, it can be hearsays.

Trying to look at it logically and leaving aside all speculation, there are 2 solution to the short squeeze. 1 owner diluting their shares and 2. Owner completely disposed their shares, but overshort above 100% doesn't make it an easy escape. HF certainly had trapped themselves. And either diluting or owner let go their shares, public retails also have access to it.

This doesn't follow our normal understanding of market because we never been thaught that a company shares can be short above 100%. I'm puzzle how can this be happening.
*
you'll need to put on a different hat as owners - while share prices is one of the measures to gauge the management's performance, their main concern is theoretically the long-term operations of the business. no matter if the price of its shares is 5,000 or 0.50, the business wont be directly impacted. revenue, net income, etc all basically the same.

without going into their prospects, gamestop is basically blockbusters for games. absolutely no one even pretends that they're going to be viable. even those who buy are in it because of the short position, not for any fundamentals. its outdated and their migration is too late, requiring them to compete with entrenched gamesellers like gog and of course, steam. regardless, to do that transition they need money which practically guarantees they'll issue shares. unless you can guarantee that gamestop prices will still be 300-400 in five years' time, its much cheaper to issue shares than to borrow.

look at it this way, if they issue just 20% additional shares right now they'd get an additional 5 billion cash into gamestop - more money than it made for years. heck, that 5 billion they would get in cash is worth more than gme was ever worth since 2013. long-term shareholders basically sacrifice 17% of their shares for a guaranteed (because its cash) return of more than 100% on the value of those shares.

and that's only 20%. there's no reason need to issue 70% or 100%. even short sellers dont need 100% - they just need there to be enough float to not be squeezed.
empyreal
post Feb 1 2021, 03:05 PM

Look at all my stars!!
Group Icon
Elite
2,036 posts

Joined: Feb 2007
From: KL


QUOTE(wanted111who @ Feb 1 2021, 02:47 PM)
Per your say, 20% is just to float and not exit, means it will back to square one, HF are still caught over shorting. Delaying the problem, not solving the problem and this doesn't change the fact that retail investor isn't losing this battle. Just waiting game. The initial guys holding it for 7-8 month since he started and he is still holding it even though his shares worth millions now.

In your opinion, if you are one of the retail investor, will you let go your shares or will you keep holding it for few more month waiting for the next short closure dates?

Invest is meant to be long term anyway.

Also 20% of shares, isn't exclusively open for people shorting the shares only. Like I said, many are eyeing on this shares globally. Any news wouldn't escape the masses. And many more understand the concept of buying and holding all available shares and left nothing to the people who borrowing it. If the company do issue new shares, I'll make sure I grab as much as possible and wait for their next calling date.

Only things that will change the game is they have indefinite time to cover their short position, I think this will need SC to steps in and given them privelage to do so.

So conclusion is, issuing 20% new shares doesn't change anything for HF who is trapped.
*


My comment was on your statement regarding new share issuances. If youre confident on your trading strategy its not my place to debate it.

Im actually not aware of shorts being timebound (although brokers have that discretion). If youre talking about options, then yes.

This post has been edited by empyreal: Feb 1 2021, 03:05 PM
empyreal
post Feb 1 2021, 03:16 PM

Look at all my stars!!
Group Icon
Elite
2,036 posts

Joined: Feb 2007
From: KL


QUOTE(wanted111who @ Feb 1 2021, 03:13 PM)
My comment on new shares is assuming it can help hedge fund to exit their short position. Hence I put 70% -100% , any lower they are still trapped.

I agree that no one know how long HF have until they are required to replace their shorts and only brokerage who issue them know which it will not be reveal. How people know it's this Friday, I'm not sure. But yes they do have timebound. There is no loan in the world that do not have time bound right?

I see it this way, brokerage is bank. You might not agree with me. That's ok, it's my personal opinion.
*
I would highly recommend that you check your assumption re shorts being timebound, especially if thats a central assumption of your strategy.
empyreal
post Feb 1 2021, 03:40 PM

Look at all my stars!!
Group Icon
Elite
2,036 posts

Joined: Feb 2007
From: KL


QUOTE(wanted111who @ Feb 1 2021, 03:27 PM)
Maybe my wording cause misunderstanding, let me try again using proper finance jargons by timebound I meant the short borrower is set a time to close their positions, if they decide not to close their positions, they will at least need to maintain the margin account per current market price. This is my understanding.
*
The lender (i.e. broker) usually doesnt set when the borrowers need to close their positions. They just need to pay the borrowing fee. I dont think they have a T+2 trade settlement arrangement.
empyreal
post Feb 1 2021, 04:00 PM

Look at all my stars!!
Group Icon
Elite
2,036 posts

Joined: Feb 2007
From: KL


QUOTE(wanted111who @ Feb 1 2021, 03:49 PM)
So you're saying HF have unlimited time, why do we see sign of  panic buy last week? They can just hold it forever.

From the historical graph, I see 2 spike one from 6 to 30+ and then second from 30+ to 300. Someone is desperate for the stock that's for sure.
*
Because a reasonably managed fund would immediately cut loss to reduce risk. If my long positions suddenly bottomed, id sell too. The fact that short interest is high kinda indicates that new people are shorting.

If theres less volatility, e.g. it stays at 300, then if they can pay the borrower fee they can choose to wait.
empyreal
post Feb 1 2021, 04:33 PM

Look at all my stars!!
Group Icon
Elite
2,036 posts

Joined: Feb 2007
From: KL


QUOTE(wanted111who @ Feb 1 2021, 04:20 PM)
That, maintaining margin account is the pain. What shares cost 300 /shares? It is basically stopping them from doing anything and have their money locked in the margin account.

They can choose to wait. So is retail investors. Paying interest will kill them slowly. Maybe I was wrong about timebound to close the short. IDK, that's what I heard, by this Friday. Maybe it's a speculation. Regardless, HF are trapped. Waiting do no harm for retail investors, I'm sure it's money they don't mind losing, but it's costing HF every penny.
*
Quite a lot of stocks on the us market are nominally 'pricey'. If you think 300 per share is high, you can check out how much is berkshire's.

I suppose the borrow rate can be pricey at 0.1% per day. I suppose theyll need the stock to be volatile to make sufficient gains.


empyreal
post Feb 1 2021, 04:40 PM

Look at all my stars!!
Group Icon
Elite
2,036 posts

Joined: Feb 2007
From: KL


QUOTE(MadhavanR @ Feb 1 2021, 04:24 PM)
but those idiots got funding from other hedge funds and instead of cutting the losses they doubled down.
and all that effort went pufff in just 1 day. USD 3 Billion worth effort that is.
probably the main culprit escaped, but the rest of the fools who still stuck there are sure to die.
*
I think its mostly new entrants who are shorting. Theyd be able to pony up the 50% cash, and have the cash from the higher-priced short to meet their margin account req.
empyreal
post Feb 1 2021, 06:51 PM

Look at all my stars!!
Group Icon
Elite
2,036 posts

Joined: Feb 2007
From: KL


QUOTE(wanted111who @ Feb 1 2021, 06:31 PM)
Yes, Berkshire and famous brand. GameStop ... It's like literally trolling hedge fund to stop the game 😂

0.1% of billions per day, no matter how volatile the stock is for them to make the gain, not sure if they can make enough to cover the interest alone. We are talking about billions.

0.1% of 1B = 1M. Every 24 hours. And last I read short shares is projected around 20B.
*
If youre talking percentages, the amount doesnt really matter. At 0.1%, you only need it to gyrate 3, 4% a month to cover the cost if you actively trade. Basically like from 350 to 335.

Plus its not just a single fund that shorted it, so that cost is divided by however many shorting parties.
empyreal
post Feb 1 2021, 07:00 PM

Look at all my stars!!
Group Icon
Elite
2,036 posts

Joined: Feb 2007
From: KL


QUOTE(AllnGap @ Feb 1 2021, 06:55 PM)
i suggest u read this before making any more comments

https://www.reddit.com/user/johnnydaggers
*
If the point of sharing that article is to share about ftd, then it isnt really a new thing.

2 Pages  1 2 >Top
 

Change to:
| Lo-Fi Version
0.0534sec    0.33    7 queries    GZIP Disabled
Time is now: 30th November 2025 - 04:30 PM