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Shorting BTC from USD36000. Who join me?
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morbo
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Jan 6 2021, 12:51 PM
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Getting Started

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Think he meant he's getting his bonus and is betting all of his bonus on this trade.
Am interested in the mechanics of your short, is there a fixed tenor of 1 month (means you need to deliver BTC in a month)? Also, any stop-loss?
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morbo
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Jan 7 2021, 12:52 PM
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QUOTE(TrialGone @ Jan 7 2021, 11:11 AM) Yes. At this point it could as far as RM1mil or 0. Because there is no intrinsic value attached, literally it can go anywhere. Purely depends on how much people value 1 btc. Correct, and it should be something that everyone involved in crypto has to be aware of. Although, to be fair, that same logic can be applied to literally any asset or currency. Edit: typo This post has been edited by morbo: Jan 7 2021, 12:52 PM
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morbo
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Jan 7 2021, 01:31 PM
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QUOTE(happyking4ever @ Jan 7 2021, 01:18 PM) but Warren Buffett once said that it is wise for investors to be “fearful when others are greedy, and greedy when others are fearful." Yea, but Buffett's investment horizon is long-term (i.e 10 years and above - for comparison, the first BTC block was mined in early Jan 2009) and based on fundamental analysis. Phrases such as “trend is your friend" is meant for swing trading which relies more on technical analysis. Edit: grammar This post has been edited by morbo: Jan 7 2021, 01:41 PM
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morbo
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Jan 7 2021, 01:37 PM
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Stop loss at 45k, still a long way to go. Although nightmare scenario is it "chung" non-stop to, let's say 48k, triggering the stop-loss and liquidating the short contract, then crashes to 30k or something, lol.
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morbo
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Jan 7 2021, 01:57 PM
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QUOTE(ifourtos @ Jan 7 2021, 01:50 PM) IF i enter 36000. Sell position BTC have to blown pass 70000 to blow my account lah. If you don't mind me asking, what's the rationale to short at exactly 36k? Any particular technical indicator? Or just gut feeling? Or is it because your bonus just came out? Am genuinely curious, and I hope you do well, I think it's healthier in the long-run for a bit of a correction and a period of consolidation (I know we had one recently, but that lasted for only a day or two) before another spike up.
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morbo
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Jan 7 2021, 02:43 PM
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QUOTE(TrialGone @ Jan 7 2021, 02:18 PM) Errrr... not really. U wont see gold bar drop to RM1. U wont see a 10 year old working car drop to RM1. On the flip side, you wont be paying RM1mil for a gram of gold too. Because this assets has value in different area which can be used as reference basis. Yes counter argument is that a broken car with a decayed carcass inside maybe worth RM0 but that's like very extreme case (which I know btc nuts going to use that as crazy excuse non stop).Currency yes, it can go bust like venezuela or zimbabwe but again, extreme case since currency like USD and EURO will ever rarely drop to such low due to their worldwide acceptance and central bank control (unless the govt gone nuts and start mass printing for no reason). Btc however........really just digital bits of 0s and 1s. It initially serve as alternative transaction to fiat away from govt control but not the case now with the price fluctuation. So it has no other value than to simply buy low and sell high or short. Since there is no govt/admin control (e.g. increase btc limit aka printing more money if the value skyrocket) , the value will move wildy since there is no way to tell whats its actually worth as there is no reference (value in other field) and depends solely on speculation. Therefore, if it goes USD 1mil or 0 one day, I wont be surprised. Your words were "Purely depends on how much people value 1 btc." and hence using your example, the price of anything is dependent on how people value it. Using an extreme example, there could be a time when people view gold as useless (let's say it gets replaced by another rare metal - worth reiterating that this is a very extreme example), then people would value it at close to zero. Not that I want that to happen, nor am I trying to start a long drawn out argument, just going along with your hypothesis.
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morbo
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Jan 7 2021, 03:16 PM
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QUOTE(TrialGone @ Jan 7 2021, 02:55 PM) Maybe. If its anything like mad max, gold may be 0 while 1 liter of black gold is USD1mil. But that example is really hard to imagine since, like I mention many times, can be used in other fields like decoration, jewelry, electronics or simply be bought by Uncle scrooge cause rich people just love shiny stuff. btc on other hand is used for what purpose? If its value drop to 0, what can u use that 0s and 1s in your hdd for? You cannot buy anything from it (since it's 0) and you cant really just keep it as collectible. Even Zimbabwe trillion dollar note got more use as collector's item. Btc now is worth as much as it cause people's perception of it and that's it. Also if btc is so low that nobody is mining, the entire system can collapse overnight cause no govt/admin control. Inb4 to btc nuts, I'm not claiming btc is going to collapse, I agree it can reach RM1trillion, so get off my back. In fact because it has no reference value to back it up, it very possible it can go up infinitely as long as people perceive it that way. Ok, cool, and just to be clear, I just wanted to align our definition of perceived value and how it can vary based on circumstances. The theoretical Mad Max post-apocalyptic scenario was spot on.
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morbo
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Jan 7 2021, 05:24 PM
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I don't think any fiat backed by gold.
Gold prices are denominated in fiat prices, though (and so is BTC, for that matter), considering that fiat is, for better or worse, the main medium of payment globally.
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morbo
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Jan 7 2021, 08:57 PM
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Wow, this is climbing so fast. The higher this thing climbs at such a quick rate, the more likely of a sharp sell-off followed by a flood of "I-told-you-so" and "death of BTC" prediction threads.
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