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 Q1 and Q2 GDP growth for many countries, Updated for many countries

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TSdotadellpro
post Aug 14 2020, 02:16 PM, updated 6y ago

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Q1 (sorted from highest to lowest)

Vietnam : +3.82% (10-year low)
Indonesia : +2.97% (weakest since 2001)
Malaysia : +0.7% (weakest since 3Q 2009 )
Philippines : -0.2% (first time negative in 22 years)
South Korea : -1.4% (biggest decline since 4Q 2008)
UK : -2.0%
Thailand : -1.8% (the deepest contraction since the flood-hit fourth quarter of 2011)
Singapore : -2.2% (worst GDP year-on-year contraction since 1Q 2009)
US : -4.8% (lowest level since the 8.4% plunge in Q4 of 2008)
China : -6.8% (first decline since at least 1992, when official quarterly GDP records started)
Hong Kong : -8.9% (biggest fall since the government began tracking comparable data in 1974)

Q2

China : +3.2%
Vietnam : +0.32%
South Korea : -3.3% (worst GDP contraction South Korea has experienced since 1998.)
Indonesia : -5.32% (the lowest since the first quarter of 1999)
Hong Kong : -9.0% (contracted for the fourth straight quarter, only one quarter behind the longest recession on record, when Hong Kong's economy shrank for five quarters in 1998-1999.)
US : -9.5% (steepest decline in nearly 70 years of quarterly data)
TH : -12.2% (biggest decline since the Asian financial crisis in 1998)
Singapore : -13.2% (worst on record)
Phillipines : -16.5% (lowest since 1981)
Malaysia : -17.1% (worst performance in nearly 22 years)
UK : -21.7% ( worst on record )


Q1 Sos

MY : https://www.theedgemarkets.com/article/bnm-...measures-impact
SG : https://www.channelnewsasia.com/news/busine...vid-19-12577146
HK : https://www.thestar.com.my/news/regional/20...as-gdp-dives-89
SK : https://pulsenews.co.kr/view.php?year=2020&no=421550
PH : https://www.rappler.com/business/260156-gro...ippines-q1-2020
ID : https://www.channelnewsasia.com/news/asia/i...e-2001-12703550
CN : https://www.cnbc.com/2020/04/17/china-econo...oronavirus.html
US : https://www.cnbc.com/2020/04/29/us-gdp-q1-2...st-reading.html
TH : https://www.bangkokpost.com/business/192140...y-rate-to-0-50-
VN : https://vietnamtimes.org.vn/vietnams-gdp-gr...-low-18849.html
UK : https://www.theguardian.com/business/live/2...n-business-live

Q2 Sos

MY : https://www.straitstimes.com/asia/se-asia/m...omic-activities
SG : https://www.straitstimes.com/business/econo...nges-worse-than
ID : https://www.thejakartapost.com/news/2020/08...5-32-in-q2.html
VN : http://hanoitimes.vn/vietnam-positive-grow...sbc-313035.html
CN : https://news.cgtn.com/news/2020-07-16/China...gOrK/index.html
US : https://wolfstreet.com/2020/07/30/no-gdp-di...l-annual-rates/
SK : https://asiatimes.com/2020/07/south-koreas-...nges-3-3-in-q2/
PH : https://thefinancialexpress.com.bd/economy/...1981-1596690529
HK : https://www.straitstimes.com/business/econo...shrinks-9-in-q2
UK : https://www.cnbc.com/2020/08/12/uk-gdp-plun...nd-quarter.html
TH : https://www.bangkokpost.com/business/196963...est-in-22-years

Anyone want me to add other countries to the list, can help give me sos

This post has been edited by dotadellpro: Aug 18 2020, 10:39 AM
TSdotadellpro
post Aug 14 2020, 02:26 PM

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QUOTE(Eurobeater @ Aug 14 2020, 02:18 PM)
Thanks for your source
TSdotadellpro
post Aug 14 2020, 02:37 PM

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QUOTE(Drian @ Aug 14 2020, 02:32 PM)
There are 2 ways to report. One is growth compared to previous quarter. One is growth compared to the previous year same quarter.

China for example is -9.8% I think if compared to previous quarter and -6.8% if compared to previous year same quarter.

Some of the numbers here are not apple to apple comparison.
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All numbers here are compared to same quarter last year (Year on Year comparison)

But you find any mistake, you can point it out.


TSdotadellpro
post Aug 14 2020, 02:49 PM

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QUOTE(zacky chan @ Aug 14 2020, 02:25 PM)
this...saw many spasm when seeing Q2..i think when Q3 come out many will going crazy  laugh.gif

but i saw many buy saham tho...my group all bising want to buy...you think ok ke??   hmm.gif
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You look at Q1 data and you look at Q2 data. Then you look our share prices on 1 Jan 2020 and current share price today.

Do you think the economy is reflected on the share price? I believe your answer is there.

This post has been edited by dotadellpro: Aug 14 2020, 02:51 PM
TSdotadellpro
post Aug 14 2020, 02:52 PM

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QUOTE(fusionalx @ Aug 14 2020, 02:50 PM)
Q3 & Q4 bank loan start paying again soon -> stock / property might go burst

effects will be soon be seen by end of the year
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Singapore no moratorium for property loan?
TSdotadellpro
post Aug 14 2020, 02:57 PM

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QUOTE(zacky chan @ Aug 14 2020, 02:54 PM)
no...i dont think so...our saham not logic one..but this coming from me with lack eco know how...but saw many want to buy so i wonder why  hmm.gif
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US saham lagi tak logik.

Anyway, just becareful. Even from the data, you can tell this crisis is once is 100 years kind of crisis.
TSdotadellpro
post Aug 14 2020, 02:58 PM

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QUOTE(raydriv3 @ Aug 14 2020, 02:55 PM)
Ok la. Can defer up to 31 Dec.
TSdotadellpro
post Aug 14 2020, 03:21 PM

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QUOTE(Drian @ Aug 14 2020, 03:10 PM)
Then US should be +0.3% in first quarter.
https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/gdp-growth-annual
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Thanks. US numbers is always tricky because they like to report annualized GDP growth numbers instead of year on year comparison.

But I can't find any source that matched your number.

This is a third source that report US Q1 growth is -1.2%, and UK growth is -2.0% (which match other news report).

http://www.oecd.org/newsroom/gdp-growth-fi...r-2020-oecd.htm

So I am more inclined to believe -1.2% number unless you can find another source that agrees with your first source.
TSdotadellpro
post Aug 14 2020, 03:31 PM

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QUOTE(amir.asyraf @ Aug 14 2020, 03:29 PM)
how come vietnam so op?
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QUOTE(James1983 @ Aug 14 2020, 03:29 PM)
It’s the most resilient emerging market
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They also never lockdown as hard as Malaysia.

Malaysia implemented one of the hardest lockdown in my list of country.

So no surprise we did that bad.
TSdotadellpro
post Aug 14 2020, 03:42 PM

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QUOTE(amir.asyraf @ Aug 14 2020, 03:35 PM)
I think China had the strictest lockdown.
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In Hubei province, yes. Hubei lockdown was even stricter and longer than Malaysia.

Outside Hubei province, no. And remember, Hubei isn't the most important economically in China.

In Shanghai or Beijing, I think its halfway in between our MCO and CMCO.

This post has been edited by dotadellpro: Aug 14 2020, 03:43 PM
TSdotadellpro
post Aug 14 2020, 05:28 PM

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QUOTE(22222222 @ Aug 14 2020, 05:10 PM)
Why so difficult to find so many source? You can refer below link.

https://tradingeconomics.com/forecast/gdp-a...?continent=asia

Malaysia Q2 -17.1, Q3 forecast -6.4% still not positive

The worst in the world is Macau, Q1 already -48.70.  rclxub.gif
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There looks like there is difference in number.

For example they put UK as -21.7 but news website put -20.4

Anyway thanks, I double check it later.
TSdotadellpro
post Aug 16 2020, 11:08 AM

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QUOTE(22222222 @ Aug 14 2020, 05:39 PM)
"UK gross domestic product (GDP) is estimated to have fallen by a record 20.4% in Quarter 2 (Apr to June) 2020, marking the second consecutive quarterly decline after GDP fell by 2.2% in the previous quarter (Figure 1). This is the largest quarterly contraction in the UK economy since Office for National Statistics (ONS) quarterly records began in 1955, and reflects the ongoing public health restrictions and forms of voluntary social distancing that have been put in place in response to the coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic. In level terms, real GDP was last lower in Quarter 2 2003. Compared with the same quarter a year ago, the UK economy fell by 21.7%."

Y-o-Y comparison.
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Thanks.
TSdotadellpro
post Aug 16 2020, 11:11 AM

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QUOTE(kastam @ Aug 14 2020, 06:13 PM)
ts better check back, some of the growth decline is year to year basis, while some is compared to previous quarter. different yo. example, singapore vs malaysia
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Can you specify which one is QoQ?

I checked, both MY and SG are YoY comparisons.

There was the UK one, but I corrected it.

This post has been edited by dotadellpro: Aug 16 2020, 11:11 AM
TSdotadellpro
post Aug 17 2020, 04:40 PM

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QUOTE(22222222 @ Aug 17 2020, 03:12 PM)
Thailand just announced Q2 GDP 2020, -12.12....better than us. Look like Malaysia is the worst in Asean.
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Its possible we are worst in Asia if you ignore Macau (not really a country on its own).

And we could be even worst in the world, if UK didn't do so bad. So really we must thank UK for saving our face this round.
TSdotadellpro
post Aug 18 2020, 10:36 AM

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QUOTE(MPPJ @ Aug 17 2020, 08:50 PM)
Japan q2 -27.8%
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That is annualized.
TSdotadellpro
post Aug 18 2020, 10:37 AM

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QUOTE(Bartholomew S @ Aug 17 2020, 09:36 PM)
Thanks, but this news site need to pay.
TSdotadellpro
post Aug 18 2020, 11:43 AM

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QUOTE(MPPJ @ Aug 18 2020, 11:36 AM)
Then Malaysia annualized is -68%?! shocking.gif
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Dunno.

But this is why annualize figures is useless. No way your gdp growth is the same whole year. This quarter is likely the worst quarter for most countries, no point annualizing current quarter figures.

 

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