https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/telsas-sh...sp-autos-sector
Tesla shareholder discussion, Bears and Bulls are welcome
Tesla shareholder discussion, Bears and Bulls are welcome
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Jul 16 2020, 11:43 PM
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#1
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All Stars
15,942 posts Joined: Jun 2008 |
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Jul 17 2020, 12:01 AM
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#2
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All Stars
15,942 posts Joined: Jun 2008 |
QUOTE(kelvinlym @ Jul 16 2020, 11:50 PM) Zerohedge should tell us something we don't yet know. Do Google the phrase Tesla poor build quality....I'm confident on the earnings call. How the share price reacts though, I have no idea. My predictions from my /k thread: https://ir.tesla.com/news-releases/news-rel...tion-deliveries Delivery numbers are out. 90k delivered. 82k produced. My prediction update. 1. Deliveries flat were accurate. 2. Operating income more likely now with wildcards being expenses incurred due to shutdowns. 3. S&P500 inclusion very likely. I don't think the stock will drop below $900 anymore. One recent new buyer complain https://www.caradvice.com.au/843686/tesla-model-y-customer/ |
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Jul 17 2020, 09:03 AM
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#3
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QUOTE(kelvinlym @ Jul 17 2020, 01:43 AM) That article on zh was posted because it's one of the few articles pointing out Tesla value as a company.As it is, Tesla market cap is 237Billion USD. Some comparison... BMW is only 38 Billion Euro Mercedes is 40 Billion Euro Toyota is 22.3 Trillion yen and the VW is 73.1 Billion Euro Look at Tesla. It's still fairly new. At one point, due to insane company cash burn rate, the company nearly died... this was like last year, no? So the logical question one should ask is whether Tesla should be the biggest market cap stock ? Is this a fair question or not? And it's not whether one is bull or bear over the stock... yes? Ahh.. the quality issue. When one see the stock, Tesla, priced the most valuable, one needs to check out if there's any problems with the car or not? Isn't this not a fair risk assessment one should have taken? If the car is problematic, sooner rather than later, people would NOT buy. Model 3 had issues and now the latest Model Y. That's where the risk I see. You said build quality can be addressed. Yes I agree. But judging the current complains, it certainly looks like Tesla is concentrating its effort on producing, sacrificing quality control. It needed the turnover to satisfy the stock market... but it would appear its risking its very customers... Getting a faulty car right off the factory leaves a very bad taste for buyers... And with social media... these stuff can spread very negatively... which brings us back to the market issue... given the quality of the cars sold.. should Tesla market cap be so big? Yeah... some had pointed out that Exxon Mobil cap is only 187 Billion USD. Tesla market cap at 237 Billion? Well, you gotta be honest with yourself and ask... wait a minute.. is Tesla over valued? my 3 sen |
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Jul 17 2020, 04:56 PM
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#4
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QUOTE(prophetjul @ Jul 17 2020, 09:55 AM) oh yeah... I do know what you mean...for the record... Tesla closing price on 17th June is 1500.64 or a market cap of 278 Billion.... easily beating many OLDE SCHOOL STOCKS.... Disney market cap is 215 Billion... Coke market cap is 198 Billion... PepsiCo market cap is 185 Billion... Anheuser Busch market cap is 105 Billion... It be interesting to see to visit back this market cap issue one year later.... * tag keyword: bookmark * |
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Jul 17 2020, 05:04 PM
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#5
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Say kelvin, tesla cars made in China, are they sold in US?
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Jul 17 2020, 09:48 PM
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#6
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QUOTE(eyerule @ Jul 17 2020, 09:19 PM) excellent understanding of tesla. a lot of people still think they are a simple auto maker. far from true. i was quite impressed with the racing game in car that used the steering, brakes and accelerator pedal as game controls. True to that. They even get revenue from their charging stations too but if not mistaken all these stuff pale in comparison to their automotive session.that just means the steering, brakes and accelerator pedal are not connected to typical legacy systems like in normal cars. it's built differently from ground up, just that from the outside it looks like a typical car |
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Jul 18 2020, 12:28 PM
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#7
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QUOTE(kelvinlym @ Jul 17 2020, 10:07 PM) https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.bloomberg....-hitting-record Knowing that there is sales is one thing but seriously Kelvin, since you had opened this discussion thread, you really gotta ask the big issue .. is Tesla over valued?15k cars registered in China in June, up 32%. Yes? Let me share why..... haiayaaa.... hope you can appreciate this a forum for discussion la... nothing more... nothing about my one better than your one... 1. Tesla has turned in a couple of quarters where it had shown that the company can earn money but the big picture is... on an annual basis, Tesla is still recording losses the last 5 years. 2. Latest quarter. 5.98 Billion sales but profit is only a mere 16 million. That'a an eps of 0.09 sen. 3. This is only the 3rd time Tesla reported quarterly profits... Q3 2019 (143 million), Q4 2019 (105 million), Q1 2020 (16 million). 3 consecutive quarters of profits but profits are lesser and lesser.. 4. Yes, there is improvement in cash flow.. which helps ease much of last year's concern that Tesla could go under (losing money and burning cash like hell) Source: https://www.marketwatch.com/investing/stock.../income/quarter https://ir.tesla.com/financial-information/quarterly-results 5. Just in terms of EPS... some facts... Tesla EPS for the twelve months ending March 31, 2020 was $-0.84. Tesla 2019 annual EPS was $-4.87 Tesla 2018 annual EPS was $-5.72 Tesla 2017 annual EPS was $-11.83 Tesla 2016 annual EPS was $-4.68 Tesla 2015 annual EPS was $-6.93 If one take away the company name (to remove any bias for/against the stock), ask yourself this... Based on the above numbers The 3 quarter they reported a profit, their net profit margins are super thin... yes, with 3 consecutive quarters it appears the company could finally report a first annual profit.... now just based on this (without the stock name) ... with a negative trailing eps .... should this stock trade at 1500? with such financials... should Tesla trade with a higher market capital than those companies mentioned earlier? yup .... is Tesla over valued? This post has been edited by Boon3: Jul 18 2020, 01:14 PM |
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Jul 18 2020, 06:35 PM
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QUOTE(kelvinlym @ Jul 18 2020, 02:53 PM) Don't get me wrong, I also agree that Tesla is now very very overvalued. I don't deny that one bit. I entered this stock with the expectation that it'll grow to 1 trillion in market cap only from 2030, not 280 billion in 2020. My early projection was share price of around $400 by 2021. Yes, it's good that you had a plan. Having a 10+ plan certainly helps. However, sometimes we can get blessed by the market and our targets are realised far too soon. I certainly am lucky to be blessed more than a couple of times. What I did was I forced to reevaluate. Do I really want to wait much longer? Does longer really helps or perhaps based on law of probabilities and averages and also reassessing the market risks, I ask myself, do I want to be in control of the situation and sell for a profit? Cos sometimes, waiting much longer, might not really improve my profits... My cost basis is $280, that being said, I'm happy that it's this high, but I know that its valuation now does not make sense, at least based on logical and historical metrics. However, I'm valuing it based on forward metrics too. My horizon is 10+years and pretty confident on my thesis considering the risk reward ratio. All in all, there's no animosity here. I'm just sharing and rebutting the points put forward. I don't mind being pointed as wrong but some contributors did not put forward any valid arguments to support their statements. LOL. Life decessions. Anyway, all the best |
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