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 Second wave unlikely but stay alert

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ScooterBoi
post Jul 1 2020, 01:34 PM

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Back to topic...

If analyzed deeper and based on the data and dates of reported cases, there were already more than 3 or 4 waves of reported cases.

1st wave is the 22 cases from 23rd Jan to mid Feb. All of them fully recovered and discharged by end Feb.

2nd wave is from 27th Feb onwards with reported cases everyday... from imported cases and local transmission and clusters... till today.

3rd wave is the daily high number of cases from the Sri Petaling cluster.

4th wave is the reported cases from EMCO.

5th wave is the high daily cases from depot tahanan.



TSJustin.Loong
post Jul 1 2020, 02:07 PM

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QUOTE(ScooterBoi @ Jul 1 2020, 01:34 PM)
Back to topic...

If analyzed deeper and based on the data and dates of reported cases, there were already more than 3 or 4 waves of reported cases.

1st wave is the 22 cases from 23rd Jan to mid Feb. All of them fully recovered and discharged by end Feb.

2nd wave is from 27th Feb onwards with reported cases everyday... from imported cases and local transmission and clusters... till today.

3rd wave is the daily high number of cases from the Sri Petaling cluster.

4th wave is the reported cases from EMCO.

5th wave is the high daily cases from depot tahanan.
*
Yeah, the 1st cases were when PH were still the government and things were still under control although the borders weren't closed down.
These cases included the China tourists.
user posted image

2nd wave was from the UDA Holdings chairman IINM.
UDA chairman tests positive for Covid-19
Patient 26 is really a super spreader.
ApocalypseSoon
post Jul 1 2020, 02:18 PM

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Expert/Prof said.

Previously an expert in SG said CoronaVirus will have hard time spreading in a Hot & Humid equatorial country like SG & Malaysia.

LOL

dayojah
post Jul 1 2020, 05:13 PM

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QUOTE(ApocalypseSoon @ Jul 1 2020, 02:18 PM)
Expert/Prof said.

Previously an expert in SG said CoronaVirus will have hard time spreading in a Hot & Humid equatorial country like SG & Malaysia.

LOL
*
Or Brazil and you cannot blame air con either in the slums
Diabloer22 P
post Jul 1 2020, 05:34 PM

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Unlikely? What do you mean? The crap is spreading all over the place again, becasue people couldn't stay homes for any longer tongue.gif
skylinelover
post Jul 1 2020, 07:15 PM

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haha keep masking fellas laugh.gif bruce.gif
TSJustin.Loong
post Jul 2 2020, 09:34 AM

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QUOTE(ApocalypseSoon @ Jul 1 2020, 02:18 PM)
Expert/Prof said.

Previously an expert in SG said CoronaVirus will have hard time spreading in a Hot & Humid equatorial country like SG & Malaysia.

LOL
*
sad.gif cry.gif doh.gif

QUOTE(skylinelover @ Jul 1 2020, 07:15 PM)
haha keep masking fellas laugh.gif bruce.gif
*
Yeah, we cannot throw caution to the wind. Having another MCO is not ideal. sweat.gif
Sotsotzaii
post Jul 5 2020, 05:37 PM

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Weekends go malls, fucking crowded, as if they thought COVID-19 suddenly vanishes and doesn't exist, or they think now that it's under control, there is NO possibilities at all that it may return and struck the 2nd or 3rd wave.

I believe the 2nd wave would come, not to say I'm not confident in our capabilities in handling the virus, but it's the citizens that won't listen. A little bit of loose up, everyone running around, now that we are almost near fully lift, everyone goes back to their normal lives, doing normal stuff, routines, like the virus never existed. We should always still be vigilant and careful of where we go, what we do. But for Malaysians, this doesn't seem to be the case for all.

2nd wave unlikely ? Unless u can predict the future, otherwise the likeliness of 2nd wave remains very very real. As quoted by WHO " The worst is yet to come "

This post has been edited by Sotsotzaii: Jul 5 2020, 05:39 PM
ScooterBoi
post Jul 5 2020, 06:12 PM

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The most likely source of an outbreak is from those people coming home to Malaysia and breaking their self imposed quarantine for 14 days.

Self imposed quarantine means self isolation. No mingling with others if not living alone.

It is difficult not to mingle with others when living in a small house and when all the bedrooms don't have its own bathroom.

If you have any relatives returning from abroad, don't visit them or invite them to any social functions for the next 2-3 weeks.

As for companies, it would be advisable to insist all employees to inform the company if there is any person returning from abroad and now staying with them under house quarantine.

It would be ideal to have the entire household under self quarantine.


SUSgogo2
post Jul 5 2020, 11:27 PM

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QUOTE(ApocalypseSoon @ Jul 1 2020, 02:18 PM)
Expert/Prof said.

Previously an expert in SG said CoronaVirus will have hard time spreading in a Hot & Humid equatorial country like SG & Malaysia.

LOL
*
Which is true. If we don’t have mco also not many will die.
pokemon
post Jul 5 2020, 11:30 PM

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QUOTE(Sotsotzaii @ Jul 5 2020, 05:37 PM)
Weekends go malls, fucking crowded, as if they thought COVID-19 suddenly vanishes and doesn't exist, or they think now that it's under control, there is NO possibilities at all that it may return and struck the 2nd or 3rd wave.

I believe the 2nd wave would come, not to say I'm not confident in our capabilities in handling the virus, but it's the citizens that won't listen. A little bit of loose up, everyone running around, now that we are almost near fully lift, everyone goes back to their normal lives, doing normal stuff, routines, like the virus never existed. We should always still be vigilant and careful of where we go, what we do. But for Malaysians, this doesn't seem to be the case for all.

2nd wave unlikely ? Unless u can predict the future, otherwise the likeliness of 2nd wave remains very very real. As quoted by WHO " The worst is yet to come "
*
I guess more people are infected but not being tested.
Our current testing criteria is if you are showing the symptoms.
Like Trump said, less testings less active cases.

Sky.Live
post Jul 5 2020, 11:41 PM

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companies should not force their employees to come to work if their work can be completed remotely. I only visit my office once a week to do things i cannot do remotely
skylinelover
post Jul 6 2020, 09:30 AM

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Haha new normal is 4 real

laugh.gif laugh.gif

My prediction is most likely old normal coming back in 2021

sweat.gif sweat.gif
helven
post Jul 6 2020, 12:11 PM

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QUOTE(Sotsotzaii @ Jul 5 2020, 05:37 PM)
Weekends go malls, fucking crowded, as if they thought COVID-19 suddenly vanishes and doesn't exist, or they think now that it's under control, there is NO possibilities at all that it may return and struck the 2nd or 3rd wave.

I believe the 2nd wave would come, not to say I'm not confident in our capabilities in handling the virus, but it's the citizens that won't listen. A little bit of loose up, everyone running around, now that we are almost near fully lift, everyone goes back to their normal lives, doing normal stuff, routines, like the virus never existed. We should always still be vigilant and careful of where we go, what we do. But for Malaysians, this doesn't seem to be the case for all.

2nd wave unlikely ? Unless u can predict the future, otherwise the likeliness of 2nd wave remains very very real. As quoted by WHO " The worst is yet to come "
*
Exactly same as what I thought.
not to say I'm not confident
not to say those report number are fake
but our tidak apa attitude kept me skeptical about going out, dine in. I am minimizing my contact with stranger, be maximum vigilant, rejects all gathering and invitations. No no I am not taking the risk.
I might sound cold but there is a lot tidak apa people willing to take the risk for me.
We have official front-liner as 1st layer of meat shield which I highly respect, fortunately unfortunately we have non-official uncontrollable tidak apa people as 2nd layer of meat shield doh.gif

» Click to show Spoiler - click again to hide... «


This post has been edited by helven: Jul 6 2020, 12:37 PM
TSJustin.Loong
post Jul 6 2020, 03:08 PM

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QUOTE(Sotsotzaii @ Jul 5 2020, 05:37 PM)
Weekends go malls, fucking crowded, as if they thought COVID-19 suddenly vanishes and doesn't exist, or they think now that it's under control, there is NO possibilities at all that it may return and struck the 2nd or 3rd wave.

I believe the 2nd wave would come, not to say I'm not confident in our capabilities in handling the virus, but it's the citizens that won't listen. A little bit of loose up, everyone running around, now that we are almost near fully lift, everyone goes back to their normal lives, doing normal stuff, routines, like the virus never existed. We should always still be vigilant and careful of where we go, what we do. But for Malaysians, this doesn't seem to be the case for all.

2nd wave unlikely ? Unless u can predict the future, otherwise the likeliness of 2nd wave remains very very real. As quoted by WHO " The worst is yet to come "
*
Exactly! I was just reading about you mentioned as well! sweat.gif cry.gif
Source: WHO thinks the worst is yet to come
shinchan^^
post Jul 6 2020, 03:12 PM

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QUOTE(adamw @ Jun 29 2020, 10:39 AM)
Bolehland where got follow SOP. Lacklustre attitude. No social distancing. I am expecting 2nd wave soon.
*
ya every no wear mask now
and kopitiam back to normal
full tables and crowds
TSJustin.Loong
post Jul 6 2020, 03:14 PM

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QUOTE(ScooterBoi @ Jul 5 2020, 06:12 PM)
The most likely source of an outbreak is from those people coming home to Malaysia and breaking their self imposed quarantine for 14 days.

Self imposed quarantine means self isolation. No mingling with others if not living alone.

It is difficult not to mingle with others when living in a small house and when all the bedrooms don't have its own bathroom.

If you have any relatives returning from abroad, don't visit them or invite them to any social functions for the next 2-3 weeks.

As for companies, it would be advisable to insist all employees to inform the company if there is any person returning from abroad and now staying with them under house quarantine.

It would be ideal to have the entire household under self quarantine.
*
Yeah, which is why Malaysia shouldn't be rushing to re-open international borders. sweat.gif shakehead.gif
QUOTE
"The matter is being discussed by the Foreign Ministry. Nonetheless it depends on the advice of the Ministry of Health (MOH) as some countries which were earlier in green zone have returned to red again, we will look at the current situation," he said.
MOH had identified six COVID-19 green zone countries for conditional reopening of international borders namely Singapore, Brunei, New Zealand, Japan, Australia and South Korea.
He however said the four categories of exemptions for foreigners to enter the country in compliance with the standard operating procedure (SOP) are still the same and they are diplomats, EP1 category expatriates, Malaysia My Second Home participants and students resuming their courses.

Source: Discussions to reopen international borders
TSJustin.Loong
post Jul 6 2020, 03:43 PM

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QUOTE(Sky.Live @ Jul 5 2020, 11:41 PM)
companies should not force their employees to come to work if their work can be completed remotely. I only visit my office once a week to do things i cannot do remotely
*
There is an interesting article from The Star on this.
QUOTE
WFH (working from home) could potentially become a norm for many businesses in Malaysia following the Covid-19 outbreak, according to the findings of a survey by recruitment agency Jobstreet.
However, recent research by Khazanah Research Institute has found that WFH may not be a viable option for many workers in the country especially those who are self-employed or categorised as vulnerable.

According to a recent survey by Jobstreet, the top five industries requiring their employees to work from home are in the insurance or pension funding (81%), followed by information technology (77%), education (70%), property development (70%) and banking (69%).
"This is also more common in large organisations with more than 500 employees. Workers with higher salaries, female (61%) aged 30-39 years (63%) and in Kuala Lumpur or Selangor (63%) are also more likely to work from home," it said.

Jobstreet noted that moving forward, longer-term, full-time workers in higher-paid roles, are more likely to be interested in working more hours from home, instead of at the workplace.

Khazanah Research Institute (KRI) researcher Siti Aiysyah Tumin in a discussion paper "How common is working from home" wrote that working from home is biased towards high-skill occupations and selected high-paying sectors, and uncommon among Malaysia’s most vulnerable workers and the self-employed.
"The working arrangement which is more viable for those of high income and highly skilled suggests a potential worsening of inequality during the crisis as lower-paid economic activities and jobs could not simply continue operations via work from home.

Siti asserted that some workers cannot work from home not only because of technological limitations but also due to the nature of the job itself.
"Certain type of jobs such as in the food and beverages or delivery sectors, simply cannot work from home, and in a scenario where their employers’ close down, they will lose their jobs and the little salaries that they have.

According to the Social Security Organisation’s (Socso) Employment Insurance System (EIS), job losses in the country has increased by 42 per cent year-on-year for this first quarter (Q1 2020).
"For these vulnerable workers such as the self-employed, low-skilled and low-paid workers, work from home is not a viable option and instead, workers have either lost their job, forced to take leave or change their working hours," she said.

The Statistics Department's survey in March found that a total of 95% of the self-employed reported lower earnings than pre-Covid-19 and almost half of the self-employed (47%) lost their job during the crisis.
"Assuming the classification of teleworking and work from home for a given occupation in the United States is similar and applicable for Malaysia, jobs with a higher prevalence of teleworking, which is less than 50%, only make up about 24% of employment in the country.

Source: For many Malaysians WFH may not work out
user posted image

This post has been edited by Justin.Loong: Jul 6 2020, 03:46 PM
lambsauce
post Jul 6 2020, 03:59 PM

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QUOTE(Sotsotzaii @ Jul 5 2020, 05:37 PM)
Weekends go malls, fucking crowded, as if they thought COVID-19 suddenly vanishes and doesn't exist, or they think now that it's under control, there is NO possibilities at all that it may return and struck the 2nd or 3rd wave.

I believe the 2nd wave would come, not to say I'm not confident in our capabilities in handling the virus, but it's the citizens that won't listen. A little bit of loose up, everyone running around, now that we are almost near fully lift, everyone goes back to their normal lives, doing normal stuff, routines, like the virus never existed. We should always still be vigilant and careful of where we go, what we do. But for Malaysians, this doesn't seem to be the case for all.

2nd wave unlikely ? Unless u can predict the future, otherwise the likeliness of 2nd wave remains very very real. As quoted by WHO " The worst is yet to come "
*
govt the one gave up caring already in the first place, try taking public transport in the morning n after work

packed like sardine
ScooterBoi
post Jul 6 2020, 04:06 PM

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QUOTE(Justin.Loong @ Jul 6 2020, 03:14 PM)
Yeah, which is why Malaysia shouldn't be rushing to re-open international borders.  sweat.gif  shakehead.gif

Source: Discussions to reopen international borders
*
Opening the borders or not to foreign tourists without the compulsory 14-days quarantine is different from violating the home quarantine.

2 different matters.

My previous post is on the danger of home quarantines.

There are hundreds of people returning home from abroad everyday. The quarantine rule has changed from quarantine at quarantine centres/hotels to quarantine at home since last month, and since then, there were already thousands of people including permanent residents returning home.

And since then, there were hundreds of people who did not undergo the mandatory 13th day swab test... whether they have the virus or not, it cannot be verified if they do not do the swab test at the end of the 2 weeks quarantine period.

The science and known facts are: The virus has an incubation period. On day 1 of being infected, swab test would not show the presence of the virus. Its presence shows up days later. This is why a 2 weeks quarantine is compulsory.

The 2nd swab test is to catch this type of cases where the 1st swab test fails to show the presence of the virus in the person.

If the 2nd swab test is positive, then close contact tracing will be done. If the person is quarantined, then contact tracing is easier as the number of persons in close contact with the index person is limited.

But hundreds failed to do the 2nd swab test, and at today's 2pm press briefing, about 400 persons has yet to do the 2nd swab test.



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