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 FKLI , Futures

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cherroy
post Jul 26 2007, 01:33 PM

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Mainly because recently the market volatility is high and also the index is facing huge resistance at 1390 level, has tried several time but not succeed, so discount a bit if anything goes wrong in overseas market. But a few point only, not significant, nothing to shout about. If market can stablise or creep a bit higher then the FKLI will close the gap eventually, still got 3 days to go for the JUL contract, anything can happen in this 3 days especially nowadays, market volatility is so high.

Current in KLSE, the shinning stars are those second and third liners and 'goreng' stock. Big cap like TNB, TM, Genting hardly move much nowadays.


cherroy
post Jul 29 2007, 03:47 PM

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QUOTE(zombie @ Jul 29 2007, 03:14 PM)
Well, there is more of an investment factor when we buy stocksvas it involves R&D on the stocks.

However, the futures market is very close to gambling for small players like me.  wink.gif
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I don't denied it somehow like gambling also but it depends how you treat it. Also, trading with FKLI, you need to make some study, not blindly sell or buy into it, otherwise, surely lose one. You need to monitor the index linked counters performance, not simply look at the index alone. See the counters like TNB, Maybank, MISC (index linked) etc are expensive or not. If too expensive, you can short the market since there is not much room for the upside, high probablity will have some correction. If the particular stocks are cheap and lot of fund are buying it, then you go long for the market. It is not simply trading with one day, hope when you bought then tomorrow goes up. You look for the bigger pictures and others factor like overseas market, interest rate issues etc. Also TA can be applied when trading with FKLI, at least you have some idea before trading, not simply buying or selling blindly.

Also when you bullish about the market and overall market is cheap (aka most stocks are cheap) and don't have any idea which stock to choose then you can opt to buy the futures, even when expired, roll it to next month (even roll for several yeras) then you basically are buying the index instead of buying stock, you still achieve the effect of buying stocks, gain from the market bullishness.

You can also use it tp hedge against the market, like you have plenty of index-linked counters, instead selling the shares, you opt to sell in the futures to protect your portfolio, this is more applicable to fund managers and big retailers who has plenty of shares across the index-linked counters.

Basically when you buy or sell in FKLI, you are basically buying/selling 100 stocks of the index linked stocks based on the weight ratio respectively.

It depends how you treat it. Even for stock, a lot of people treat like gambling instead of investment, just people not realised or admit it. Typically a lot of retailers heard some rumour of ABC 'goreng' stock will go up next week, without any research about the company just look at the price quote of the computer and daily price movement, they also bought the shares already, hope it will go up tomorrow or next then can make quick gain/contra gain from it. This also quite similar to gambling already, may be speculation is more suitable word.

This post has been edited by cherroy: Jul 29 2007, 03:48 PM
cherroy
post Jul 30 2007, 01:31 PM

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QUOTE(darenohh @ Jul 30 2007, 11:20 AM)
true .. besides .. also need the dare to take risk... as the study just a help be not always  true ...
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But study is a must, it increases the chance of winning though not 100% or 90%. At least you know what are you doing rather blindly jump into it.

Just like sport, you need plenty of training, although doesn't mean necessary winning but without training, your have no chance or less chance of winning even you are talented.
cherroy
post Aug 1 2007, 02:21 PM

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QUOTE(shih @ Aug 1 2007, 02:10 PM)
Means how much to lose from the opening today? 1 point = rm50?
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Yes, 1 point = RM50

so one contract mean gain/loss = 2,850

It is hard to play in this market now, it is not up to the KLSE alone, the world market is influenced by the US market. With subprime issues keep on popping up and surfacing, you don't know when it will stop. Today the an Australian Macquire issue warning about fund loss and the near collapse of The American Home added salt in the wound.

Europe is expecting to open with significant loss after yesterday sharp rise and for time being, DJ futures is expected to trade down more than 100 points loss.


cherroy
post Aug 1 2007, 02:54 PM

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QUOTE(laguna1811 @ Aug 1 2007, 02:23 PM)
lol...
trust the chart
damn gap up gap down made me scare to short lol

no make money shorting, then wait chance to long lor lol
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Now the most important is you have enough 'bullet'

That's why I keep on mentioning on previos posts, always keep enough cash to prepare for the worst.
cherroy
post Aug 2 2007, 09:17 AM

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I won't play in this market currently, too risky, each day is different now, it all depends on US market now. No news, market goes up, got subprime or credit crunch issues stock plunge.

If you notice careful of last night DJ, the 150points is only occured at last 20 minutes of the session, prior 30 minutes before the close, the DJ is hovering at neutral point to slightly red. So it is pre-mature to say the whole market is stablise already.
cherroy
post Aug 2 2007, 01:42 PM

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QUOTE(Lcsx @ Aug 2 2007, 11:29 AM)
Actually FLKI is also used to create a market neutral position whereby you make the stock neutral to market influences but open only to the stock's strenghts, prospects and weakneses.

Another use for FLKI is for exiting very huge positions in the KLCI. If a fund wants to exit a position huge enough to influence the market, the fund could have short position and exit their funds. This is because if you exit huge positions your sale orders will not all be taken at a good price. The shortcoming is made up by your short positions in the FLKI.

Another use is by simmilar means as the above but purely for market manipulation. I am not elaborating on this.
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This had been done back 1997 financial crisis, hedge fund short the equities and respectively country currency simultaneously since they know they exit the market in big way as well as short the market which increase the currency downward pressure.

That's why until now KLSE is not permitting openly short selling of stock, only regulated short-selling allowed. The market is simple too small compared to the hedge fund size.

Currently, when market tumble, ringgit goes down as well so may be it is the sign of some 'hot' money moving out currently.
cherroy
post May 28 2008, 12:54 PM

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QUOTE(bulkbiz @ May 28 2008, 11:40 AM)
Newbie here, where you guys trade FKLI...cimb i-trade can?
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As far as I knew, there is no online portal can trade FKLI yet.
cherroy
post Feb 11 2009, 03:53 PM

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QUOTE(DeniseLau @ Feb 7 2009, 04:47 PM)
1. Is there like a minimum I have to buy or something? Like in stocks, we have to purchase 1000 units at a time, is there any such thing in Futures?

2. In Crude Palm Oil Futures (FCPO), the underlying instrument is the Crude Palm Oil itself. So if I don't sell by the settlement date, I get a few tons of Crude Palm Oil shipped to my house. In KLCI Futures (FKLI), the underlying instrument is the KLCI Index. So if I don't sell the contract by the settlement date, what happens?

From what I read, FKLI is a Cash-Settled Futures Contract, but what I can't find is what happens if I don't sell an FKLI contract by the settlement date.

Would appreciate it very much if someone could help me understand this.

Edit:
I got the answer for question 2. Still no idea on Question 1.

QUOTE(OSK Investment Bank)
What is stock index futures contract?
Stock Index futures contract is an agreement between a seller and a buyer to respectively deliver and take delivery of a basket of shares which makes up the stock index, at predetermined price but at a specific future date. However, almost all Stock Index futures contracts (and similarly FKLI) provide for cash settlement in lieu of actual delivery of the basket of shares. The KLSE CI futures contract is a stock index futures contract that is based on the KLSE CI.

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1. Min 1 contract. biggrin.gif

Initial margin varied from time to time, last time as low at Rm1,800 per contract, and as high as Rm6k+ at one time during market turbulence time.
cherroy
post Apr 14 2009, 09:38 AM

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QUOTE(debbieyss @ Apr 14 2009, 09:24 AM)
hi, i have one urgent question to ask:

Mr. A buys one contract at market's open price (900 point).

The moving status drops at 890 point at 10am.

However, the market closes at 910 point.

I just wonder, if Mr. A earnsor loses?
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Mr A earn nothing from it, as he didn't close the open interest aka he didn't sell the long contract at all.

Price movement doesn't dictate your loss or gain. It i your transaction aka buy and sell price aka a closed transaction sell-buy price that is your final result.
cherroy
post Apr 20 2009, 04:03 PM

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QUOTE(debbieyss @ Apr 20 2009, 02:43 PM)
I have one question again, regarding FUTURES.

It doesn't have to buy a contract at a low price then only sell it at high price, right?
A successful contract can be done at first sell it at a high price, then buy it at low price when the status meet the low price, am I getting it right?
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Yup

Buy first -> long
Sell first -> short
cherroy
post Apr 23 2009, 11:46 PM

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QUOTE(cute_boboi @ Apr 23 2009, 11:14 PM)
1. Assume Mr. A sell 1 contract at 970 on 29 Apr 2009 for Spot Month. On 30th Apr 2009 ending day, the system will auto match and initiate a buy on whatever the price is. If below 970, still profit. Otherwise, margin call if insufficient balance.

I think can negotiate to bring the contract over to next month with the broker.

2. MO = Matching Order before opening. Similiar like trading shares now. You can buy/sell at the price listed.

MP = Matching Price before closing for the day. e.g. If yesterday I buy at 967 during MP, today I can sell at 986.50 during MP. 19.5 pts minus fees for ~RM400 profit per contract.
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1. Not like that. On the end of the month, contract will be settled if your have open contract not close, by using the settlement price of the last trading half hours, aka they will take average price of the last hour to determine the settlement price.

If you continue to have interest on short side, you can short the May contract, aka roll over your April contract to May.
cherroy
post Apr 28 2009, 10:43 AM

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QUOTE(debbieyss @ Apr 27 2009, 06:50 PM)
Actually I have bought the software from a financial institution for around RM5K. We students are to just follow the signals the software shows each day and from there earn money.

Anyway, there are too many uncertainties nowadays, it seems this software doesn't really work.

I'm thinking to quit after earned RM5K to cover the purchase of the software.
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Software doesn't work a lot of the time especially in current environment.

Because software is designed based on pattern and TA input which if market behave accordingly, then it will be correct, aka software is rigid, not flexible when sending signal.

But you and me also know market always tend to behave unpredictably.



 

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