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Msia market outlook n potential counters
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TSTaikor.Taikun
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Apr 10 2020, 09:38 AM, updated 6y ago
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So, today the gov will announce decision to extend MCO or not. Most likely it will enable people to start work but restriction on large gathering remain in place.
Will this improve the stock market? If so, got to buy some today?
There r suggestion to focus on BN-linked counters. Feasible?
Your opinion?
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Bendan[520]
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Apr 10 2020, 09:55 AM
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What if the MCO is extended?
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TSTaikor.Taikun
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Apr 10 2020, 09:58 AM
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QUOTE(Bendan520 @ Apr 10 2020, 09:55 AM) What if the MCO is extended? If extended w current restriction i.e cannot go to work, nothing is improved. Many businesses will badly affected n spending slow down even more affecting even more businesses This post has been edited by Taikor.Taikun: Apr 10 2020, 09:59 AM
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Bendan[520]
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Apr 10 2020, 10:10 AM
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QUOTE(Taikor.Taikun @ Apr 10 2020, 09:58 AM) If extended w current restriction i.e cannot go to work, nothing is improved. Many businesses will badly affected n spending slow down even more affecting even more businesses Then stock market cannot up. GG. Best wait till monday/tuesday
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taiping...
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Apr 10 2020, 10:59 AM
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Even if they extend, market is gonna b bad
Ppl won’t be buying immediately
All saving cash for essentials
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tsg_7
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Apr 10 2020, 11:01 AM
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QUOTE(taiping... @ Apr 10 2020, 10:59 AM) Even if they extend, market is gonna b bad Ppl won’t be buying immediately All saving cash for essentials this. business need times to recover too.
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TSTaikor.Taikun
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Apr 10 2020, 11:07 AM
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QUOTE(taiping... @ Apr 10 2020, 10:59 AM) Even if they extend, market is gonna b bad Ppl won’t be buying immediately All saving cash for essentials Sounds like too late to rescue businesses n we’re screwed. Spending gonna plunge due to uncertainty n fear
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Bendan[520]
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Apr 10 2020, 08:31 PM
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QUOTE(taiping... @ Apr 10 2020, 10:59 AM) Even if they extend, market is gonna b bad Ppl won’t be buying immediately All saving cash for essentials This outbreak may take another 6 months to recover.
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calvinngan
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Apr 11 2020, 12:11 AM
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New Member
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QUOTE(Bendan520 @ Apr 10 2020, 08:31 PM) This outbreak may take another 6 months to recover. 6 months may be too early, some say it takes 18 months to develop a 'safe' vaccine, by then, the nation that allowed herd immunity or has mass infection will be the first to recover. China is still pretty much closed and on guard. As evil as it may sound, I think controlled herd immunity is the way forward. Lets assume the MCO is successful and we have 0 infection after 2 weeks, what then? Can we live normally like what it was? According to the Koreans and Chinese, somehow some people never really recover or fall sick, as if the virus lingers on them for months. There are still patients in China that still have the virus and has been in quarantine for 2 months. https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/202...korean-cdc-saysOnce the MCO is lifted, within 2 to 3 months, we are going to have another outbreak. There is no end to this.
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TSTaikor.Taikun
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Apr 11 2020, 12:31 AM
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QUOTE(calvinngan @ Apr 11 2020, 12:11 AM) 6 months may be too early, some say it takes 18 months to develop a 'safe' vaccine, by then, the nation that allowed herd immunity or has mass infection will be the first to recover. China is still pretty much closed and on guard. As evil as it may sound, I think controlled herd immunity is the way forward. Lets assume the MCO is successful and we have 0 infection after 2 weeks, what then? Can we live normally like what it was? According to the Koreans and Chinese, somehow some people never really recover or fall sick, as if the virus lingers on them for months. There are still patients in China that still have the virus and has been in quarantine for 2 months. https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/202...korean-cdc-saysOnce the MCO is lifted, within 2 to 3 months, we are going to have another outbreak. There is no end to this. If this situation persist n prolongs till end of 2021, many commercial activities will die. Some may successfully move online n some bars r delivering beers n pizza to home. But many will just cease operation. In time like this, healthcare counters r promising. Karex has modified a production line to make sanitisers. Glad i bought some of its shares
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icemanfx
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Apr 11 2020, 01:24 AM
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Many said, this recession will be worse than 1984 and 1997; only those who has experienced could anticipate what is coming. the longer mco is extended, more worse it will become.
the first wave of businesses to close will be those paying expensive rental, follow by elevated unemployment then those highly geared, etc. more individuals will be bankrupt than corporate.
This post has been edited by icemanfx: Apr 11 2020, 01:25 AM
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Bendan[520]
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Apr 11 2020, 01:31 AM
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QUOTE(calvinngan @ Apr 11 2020, 12:11 AM) 6 months may be too early, some say it takes 18 months to develop a 'safe' vaccine, by then, the nation that allowed herd immunity or has mass infection will be the first to recover. China is still pretty much closed and on guard. As evil as it may sound, I think controlled herd immunity is the way forward. Lets assume the MCO is successful and we have 0 infection after 2 weeks, what then? Can we live normally like what it was? According to the Koreans and Chinese, somehow some people never really recover or fall sick, as if the virus lingers on them for months. There are still patients in China that still have the virus and has been in quarantine for 2 months. https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/202...korean-cdc-saysOnce the MCO is lifted, within 2 to 3 months, we are going to have another outbreak. There is no end to this. The country has to reduce the number of new patients to zero out, else if the MCO is lifted even though we have low numbers, it will still cause a sudden outbreak, which will send a bigger shockwave to our economy, causing yet a worse off downturn.
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Bendan[520]
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Apr 11 2020, 01:32 AM
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QUOTE(icemanfx @ Apr 11 2020, 01:24 AM) Many said, this recession will be worse than 1984 and 1997; only those who has experienced could anticipate what is coming. the longer mco is extended, more worse it will become. the first wave of businesses to close will be those paying expensive rental, follow by elevated unemployment then those highly geared, etc. more individuals will be bankrupt than corporate. The government is giving out BPN and Wage subsidy programm to help sustain SMES, what do you think? Back there, there wasnt anything given, people still can work amidst the crash/recession. People cant work now because of the virus, everything is at a standstill.
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icemanfx
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Apr 11 2020, 01:59 AM
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QUOTE(Bendan520 @ Apr 11 2020, 01:32 AM) The government is giving out BPN and Wage subsidy programm to help sustain SMES, what do you think? Back there, there wasnt anything given, people still can work amidst the crash/recession. People cant work now because of the virus, everything is at a standstill. What the gomen announced so far is temporary relief not stimulus. 6 weeks lock down will wipe out most business' profit for the year and this has yet to endure a few months of operation losses. given productivity is low in this country i.e over staff, unemployment will be elevated. over 50% of gdp is services, is badly hit by lock down and drop in consumers spending. Only gomen servants and GLC are not affected by the recession. This post has been edited by icemanfx: Apr 11 2020, 03:45 AM
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