Welcome Guest ( Log In | Register )

3 Pages  1 2 3 >Bottom

Outline · [ Standard ] · Linear+

 Zero coronavirus cases in Indonesia, may suggest the potential for undetected

views
     
TSteutonic
post Feb 10 2020, 08:57 PM, updated 5y ago

Getting Started
**
Junior Member
146 posts

Joined: Apr 2015
JAKARTA (The Jakarta Post/ANN): Almost a month after the first novel coronavirus case outside of China was confirmed in Thailand on Jan 13 and amid the virus’s subsequent spread to a number of other countries, Indonesia seems to remain free of the fast-spreading illness.

While the fact that there are zero known cases in the country has brought relief, it has also raised questions about what sets Indonesia apart from countries with confirmed cases, especially as 85 cases had been recorded across six neighboUring Southeast Asian countries as of Friday (Feb 7).

A study by a group of researchers from Harvard University suggests that Indonesia should have confirmed cases of the novel coronavirus by now, given the high number of airline passengers travelling between the country and Wuhan, the epicentre of the outbreak in China.

The study, carried out by researchers at the Harvard T.H. Chan School of Public Health, revealed that Indonesia's zero confirmed cases "may suggest the potential for undetected cases in these locations given the expected connection before travel control measures were implemented”.

However, the study has not been peer-reviewed. It was published on pre-print server medRxiv on Wednesday.

The findings are based on estimated air travel volume from Wuhan to international destinations and a generalised linear regression model to predict imports of novel coronavirus cases across 26 locations.

With an average daily number of passengers of about 100, the model showed that Indonesia should have confirmed one to 10 infections with the novel coronavirus.

"We recommend that outbreak surveillance and control capacity should be rapidly strengthened in those locations lying below the 95 per cent [prediction interval] lower bound to ensure cases are detected if occurring and avoid the emergence of self-sustained transmission," researchers said in the study.

The questions range from whether Indonesia's humid, tropical climate somehow protects it, whether Indonesians’ immune systems play a factor and whether Indonesia even has the capacity to detect the virus that causes flu-like symptoms.

Much of the concern has been directed toward the competence of the Health Ministry's laboratory, the only one authorised to run tests on suspected cases, in detecting the new virus, 2019-nCoV.

The ministry has repeatedly brushed off these concerns. Its communicable disease prevention and control director, Wiendra Waworuntu, said on Thursday that the lab had received 2,000 primers for testing from the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) in January.

The ministry's lab has tested 50 specimens as of Friday; 49 of them tested negative while the remaining test was still awaiting results.

Wiendra said Indonesia had learned from its previous encounters with outbreaks, including the 2002-2003 Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome (SARS) outbreak. During the SARS epidemic that killed 774 people in 17 countries, Indonesia recorded only two probable cases according to WHO data.

A 2011 study conducted by the University of Hong Kong and published by open-access publisher Hindawi showed that the high temperatures and high relative humidity in Indonesia might be the reason it did not have nosocomial outbreaks of SARS.

The case was possibly different in Singapore and Hong Kong, where there was an intensive use of air conditioning, as transmission occurred in well air-conditioned environments.

This was because the study found that "high temperature at high relative humidity had a synergistic effect on inactivation of SARS coronavirus viability while lower temperatures and low humidity support prolonged survival of the virus on contaminated surfaces".

While acknowledging that there was still much to be learned about the new strain of the virus, R. Wasito, a veterinary professor at Gadjah Mada University who had previously studied coronaviruses, said the novel virus might not last long in Indonesia due to exposure to heat and the sun.

There was also the possibility, still in need of scientific evidence, that stress during winter season might weaken one's immune system thus making transmission easier, he said. China is currently in the winter season, which usually lasts until March.

While the novel coronavirus came from the same family as SARS, WHO representative to Indonesia Navaratnasamy Paranietharan told The Jakarta Post via email on Thursday that the two outbreaks could not be compared as “many factors of the 2019-nCoV are still unknown”.

Vivi Setiawaty, the head of a biomedical research center at the ministry's Health Research and Development Agency (Balitbangkes), argued it was too early to determine the virus' characteristics.

She said that although viruses would be inactivated at temperatures between 50 and 70 degrees Celsius and that more cases were confirmed in countries with cooler weather, there had also been confirmed cases in tropical countries with similar weather to Indonesia. The Philippines, for instance, had recorded the first death from the novel coronavirus outside of China.

Vivi emphasised the role of people's immune systems in countering the virus while also attributing the zero cases in Indonesia to the country’s preparedness in preventing the outbreak.

Health Ministry disease control and prevention director general Anung Sugihantono mentioned three factors influencing disease transmission, namely the agent – the virus itself – the host and the environment, with the last two factors still leaving many unanswered questions in the effort to understand, scientifically, why Indonesia had not recorded any cases.

"When we talk about hosts [of the virus], the immune system against the novel coronavirus is different from one person to another, one ethnicity to another. This is what we'll be studying further, whether these factors have led to no cases being found in Indonesia," Anung told journalists on Thursday.

"In terms of environment, we live in a tropical country and the people commonly have activities outdoors. Where these have influences in virulency must also be reviewed scientifically," he added.

The ministry, Anung said, was also actively looking into deaths from pneumonia amid the outbreak, claiming there had been no significant increase in such deaths. However, he did not immediately provide data.

The novel coronavirus can cause severe pneumonia or breathing difficulties for some people, according to the WHO.

Anung acknowledged that any fault in the detection processes could lead to different lab test results, adding that the ministry was continuously evaluating each step in the detection processes, such as in diagnosing patients, taking samples for lab tests and using test kits and equipment.

Chairul Anwar Nidom, the chair of Airlangga University's Avian Influenza Research Center, called on the government to facilitate good coordination between the central government and regional administrations.

"From my experience during the avian influenza outbreak, there were too many meetings and seminars. Viruses can be very dynamic, and so the key is coordination, ” he said.

He suggested the government appoint a leading sector to orchestrate efforts at all levels of administration.

The ministry said it had continuously worked alongside local health agencies to monitor people who had travelled to countries affected by the virus.

It said it would also train local medical and lab workers on the novel coronavirus, opening up the possibility of the expansion of lab testing into other areas. - The Jakarta Post/Asia News Network

External Link
amir.asyraf
post Feb 10 2020, 09:21 PM

On my way
****
Junior Member
502 posts

Joined: Oct 2012
From: It's all relative


tldr: Indon bomoh superior
HuorEarfalas
post Feb 10 2020, 09:40 PM

Casual
***
Junior Member
382 posts

Joined: Sep 2006


user posted image
aaronkinesis
post Feb 10 2020, 09:47 PM

Getting Started
**
Validating
56 posts

Joined: May 2019
Because no China visitor meh?
SUSLiamness
post Feb 11 2020, 03:28 PM

Casual
***
Junior Member
445 posts

Joined: Aug 2018
bugis warrior stronk..
MeToo
post Feb 11 2020, 04:47 PM

Look at all my stars!!
*******
Senior Member
9,297 posts

Joined: May 2009
Ignorance is bliss
Burningsunz
post Feb 11 2020, 11:32 PM

Getting Started
**
Junior Member
289 posts

Joined: Jul 2007
From: Area 51


Well this is quite worrying...not sure whether it is legit


Indonesia says no need to test citizens evacuated from Wuhan for novel coronavirus as they are healthy

JAKARTA: A senior Indonesian health official said there is no need to conduct novel coronavirus tests on citizens quarantined after being evacuated from Wuhan, as all 243 people were healthy.

Speaking at a press conference on Thursday (Feb 6), Dr Windra Waworuntu, the Health Ministry’s director for communicable diseases said: “We don’t take swab samples because they are well. The SOP (standard operating procedure) doesn’t say that we have to take samples from everyone."

“If they are not well, feverish, coughing and sneezing, then we will swab (them for samples). If they are fine, why should we swab?”On Sunday, Indonesia evacuated 238 students from Hubei province, where the novel coronavirus is thought to have originated amid a lockdown by Chinese authorities.

All 238 students and five officials from the Indonesian embassy in China who assisted the students’ return, were subsequently quarantined at a military facility in the remote Indonesian island of Natuna for the next two weeks.

COST IS AN ISSUE: HEALTH MINISTRY

Dr Waworuntu said that it would be costly to test all those currently under quarantine.

The reagent - a compound used in chemical analysis to detect coronavirus - involved for one test would cost a billion rupiah (US$73,035), she claimed. Each person is tested at least twice to ensure accuracy.

“But that doesn’t mean we won’t do it when we have to. We will.”

When asked if the current approach is in line with guidelines issued by the World Health Organization (WHO), Dr Waworuntu said Indonesia is complying with all guidelines and recommendations currently set by the international body.

The director said Indonesia will only tighten the current policy if it is mandated by the WHO.

“The guidelines set by the WHO is constantly updated. Perhaps tomorrow will be different,” she said. “But from the guidelines we have received so far, that is the standard.”

Dr Waworuntu said doctors are constantly monitoring the health of everyone being quarantined in Natuna.

To date, the virus has killed more than 550 people and infected over 28,000 people around the world.

The WHO has declared the flu-like virus a global emergency as the virus spread to at least 25 countries and regions.

But Indonesia, a country of 264 million people, appeared to be spared from the outbreak, even as neighbouring countries like Singapore, Malaysia, the Philippines and Australia each has confirmed cases of novel coronavirus.

Indonesia has earlier tested 42 people for the novel coronavirus since the outbreak began last month. But all tests came back negative.

Some have questioned if Indonesia has the right tools to detect the virus.

"EVERYTHING IN LINE WITH WHO PROTOCOL"

Dr Waworuntu said Indonesia would continue to make preparations for a possible outbreak.

“Indonesia is doing everything in line with (WHO) protocol. We are making preparations and continue to increase our capacity,” she said.

Indonesia has readied 100 hospitals across the country to isolate and treat suspected novel coronavirus patients but Dr Waworuntu said the government plans to have more.

“We are checking the readiness of hospitals, outside of the 100 so each province has at least one,” she said. Indonesia has 34 provinces.

The Health Ministry director said her office is also improving laboratories across the country so they are able to conduct test and diagnosis for the novel coronavirus.

Currently, all samples are being tested at the ministry’s biomedical research centre in Jakarta.

“We want laboratories outside of Jakarta to be able to conduct tests and diagnosis. So not only at our research centre, but labs in Jakarta, Surabaya, Manado, Papua, Makassar and Sumatra,” she said, adding that it would save time and minimise the chances of the samples being contaminated or damaged along the way.

https://www.channelnewsasia.com/news/asia/w...natuna-12401562
L.Torreira
post Feb 12 2020, 12:10 AM

Getting Started
**
Junior Member
76 posts

Joined: Oct 2018
QUOTE(Burningsunz @ Feb 11 2020, 11:32 PM)
Well this is quite worrying...not sure whether it is legit
Indonesia says no need to test citizens evacuated from Wuhan for novel coronavirus as they are healthy

JAKARTA: A senior Indonesian health official said there is no need to conduct novel coronavirus tests on citizens quarantined after being evacuated from Wuhan, as all 243 people were healthy.

Speaking at a press conference on Thursday (Feb 6), Dr Windra Waworuntu, the Health Ministry’s director for communicable diseases said: “We don’t take swab samples because they are well. The SOP (standard operating procedure) doesn’t say that we have to take samples from everyone."

“If they are not well, feverish, coughing and sneezing, then we will swab (them for samples). If they are fine, why should we swab?”On Sunday, Indonesia evacuated 238 students from Hubei province, where the novel coronavirus is thought to have originated amid a lockdown by Chinese authorities.

All 238 students and five officials from the Indonesian embassy in China who assisted the students’ return, were subsequently quarantined at a military facility in the remote Indonesian island of Natuna for the next two weeks.

COST IS AN ISSUE: HEALTH MINISTRY

Dr Waworuntu said that it would be costly to test all those currently under quarantine.

The reagent - a compound used in chemical analysis to detect coronavirus - involved for one test would cost a billion rupiah (US$73,035), she claimed. Each person is tested at least twice to ensure accuracy.

“But that doesn’t mean we won’t do it when we have to. We will.”

When asked if the current approach is in line with guidelines issued by the World Health Organization (WHO), Dr Waworuntu said Indonesia is complying with all guidelines and recommendations currently set by the international body.

The director said Indonesia will only tighten the current policy if it is mandated by the WHO.

“The guidelines set by the WHO is constantly updated. Perhaps tomorrow will be different,” she said. “But from the guidelines we have received so far, that is the standard.”

Dr Waworuntu said doctors are constantly monitoring the health of everyone being quarantined in Natuna.

To date, the virus has killed more than 550 people and infected over 28,000 people around the world.

The WHO has declared the flu-like virus a global emergency as the virus spread to at least 25 countries and regions.

But Indonesia, a country of 264 million people, appeared to be spared from the outbreak, even as neighbouring countries like Singapore, Malaysia, the Philippines and Australia each has confirmed cases of novel coronavirus.

Indonesia has earlier tested 42 people for the novel coronavirus since the outbreak began last month. But all tests came back negative.

Some have questioned if Indonesia has the right tools to detect the virus.

"EVERYTHING IN LINE WITH WHO PROTOCOL"

Dr Waworuntu said Indonesia would continue to make preparations for a possible outbreak.

“Indonesia is doing everything in line with (WHO) protocol. We are making preparations and continue to increase our capacity,” she said.

Indonesia has readied 100 hospitals across the country to isolate and treat suspected novel coronavirus patients but Dr Waworuntu said the government plans to have more.

“We are checking the readiness of hospitals, outside of the 100 so each province has at least one,” she said. Indonesia has 34 provinces.

The Health Ministry director said her office is also improving laboratories across the country so they are able to conduct test and diagnosis for the novel coronavirus.

Currently, all samples are being tested at the ministry’s biomedical research centre in Jakarta.

“We want laboratories outside of Jakarta to be able to conduct tests and diagnosis. So not only at our research centre, but labs in Jakarta, Surabaya, Manado, Papua, Makassar and Sumatra,” she said, adding that it would save time and minimise the chances of the samples being contaminated or damaged along the way.

https://www.channelnewsasia.com/news/asia/w...natuna-12401562
*
Your gf from China OK?
Burningsunz
post Feb 12 2020, 12:13 AM

Getting Started
**
Junior Member
289 posts

Joined: Jul 2007
From: Area 51


QUOTE(L.Torreira @ Feb 12 2020, 12:10 AM)
Your gf from China OK?
*
eh how you know my gf from china.
at the moment ok even though got few cases of death already...her place still not yet lockdown but long distance bus is not allowed to operate.
L.Torreira
post Feb 12 2020, 12:30 AM

Getting Started
**
Junior Member
76 posts

Joined: Oct 2018
QUOTE(Burningsunz @ Feb 12 2020, 12:13 AM)
eh how you know my gf from china.
at the moment ok even though got few cases of death already...her place still not yet lockdown but long distance bus is not allowed to operate.
*
Of course know. I am a fan of her. She looks like han chae young. I am more worry about her than Indon news. Indon no dies but her place got few dies

This post has been edited by L.Torreira: Feb 12 2020, 12:31 AM
Burningsunz
post Feb 12 2020, 12:33 AM

Getting Started
**
Junior Member
289 posts

Joined: Jul 2007
From: Area 51


QUOTE(L.Torreira @ Feb 12 2020, 12:30 AM)
Of course know. I am a fan of her. She looks like han chae young. I am more worry about her than Indon news. Indon no dies but her place got few dies
*
haha cipot
kevinkit
post Feb 12 2020, 09:52 AM

Getting Started
**
Junior Member
71 posts

Joined: Jun 2010
Even most of the countries evacuees have a few confirm cases. but....but all of Indon 238 people not even one kena this is highly suspicious.................. "Indonesia evacuated 238 students from Hubei province, where the novel coronavirus is thought to have originated amid a lockdown by Chinese authorities."

This post has been edited by kevinkit: Feb 12 2020, 10:01 AM
shinjite
post Feb 12 2020, 10:07 AM

�ŞħĬΩĵΐŦ��
********
All Stars
19,176 posts

Joined: Jan 2003
From: Klang


Ignorance is bliss
ZeneticX
post Feb 12 2020, 10:15 AM

stars for what
********
All Stars
11,768 posts

Joined: Jan 2008
From: KL - Cardiff - Subang - Sydney



indonesians coming in our borders should be placed on high priority alert as well and screened individually

This post has been edited by ZeneticX: Feb 12 2020, 10:15 AM
JSern
post Feb 12 2020, 04:25 PM

Getting Started
**
Junior Member
191 posts

Joined: Jan 2012


indonesia mmg panai, keep quiet so that more tourist go to indonesia instead of malaysia and singapore
tonychua628
post Feb 13 2020, 10:57 AM

Getting Started
**
Junior Member
66 posts

Joined: Dec 2017


outbreak waiting to explode at Indon
after whole world settle down they will come out with the virus
bereev
post Feb 13 2020, 11:03 AM

Getting Started
**
Junior Member
247 posts

Joined: Dec 2011
yesterday thw who president actually hint Malaysia we have a badass neighbor we need to be caution
howszat
post Feb 17 2020, 08:43 PM

Look at all my stars!!
*******
Senior Member
2,925 posts

Joined: Sep 2007
Climate is certainly a factor.

Colder countries normally have their flu season during the winter months.

So, if a country has no winter, there should be no flu. Unless there is extensive use of air-cond.
Remonstrate P
post Feb 17 2020, 09:56 PM

New Member
*
Probation
0 posts

Joined: Feb 2020
If that situation is true, then that is scary. It can affect thousands of people before it will get discovered, and that means more deaths.
leah235
post Feb 17 2020, 11:37 PM

DIMPLE EATER
******
Senior Member
1,207 posts

Joined: Apr 2013
From: 02:35
Just came back from Jakarta, hardly to see any chinese from mainlaind HK or TW.

When i was in airport, probably see only 2 couples of white people......


3 Pages  1 2 3 >Top
 

Change to:
| Lo-Fi Version
0.0199sec    0.15    5 queries    GZIP Disabled
Time is now: 29th March 2024 - 05:52 AM