Entirely agree. I have been made redundant and in practice it means forced early retirement. We really could have used another 3-4 years of employment but if we can get back to 5% in a year or so then all will be good.

Predictions for ASM3 at the end of the month?

I was hopeful of a little over 4% but if base rate drops another 25 points I will be happy just to keep 4%.

[quote=nexona88,Sep 2 2020, 02:46 PM]
should be same like ASM 2...
just like previous years....

next year ASM 1 on end of March might be different tho...

[/quote

Different, better or different, worse?

I think it is way too soon to predict next year. The timing of the MCO relaxing and opening up of the economy will be important. More of the fund is now invested outside Malaysia too.

I would say 3.7% to 4.5% is a realistic call, but that is just my gut feeling at the moment.

Dividend is, of course, important but it is dividend relative to inflation that means more.

In theory 6% dividend with 3% inflation is no different (assuming you withdraw and spend the dividend) than 4% dividend and 1% inflation.

Slightly different if you are a serial saver and looking to benefit from compound interest over the years of course.

Is there any news re ASM3 dividend yet please?

Is it too soon to start trying to estimate the ASB dividend in December?

Last year was 5.5% I believe. Since then the markets have crashed and then recovered well which means opportunity if the fund manager is not entirely risk averse. In theory, around 30% of ASB is now invested outside Malaysia so I would hope (but am by no means confident) of this years figures being just a little better than last year's.

Thoughts?

That is a question which will attract different answers from different people. In my situation, aged 58, newly redunant and with a reasonable amount invested, 3-4% would allow us to pay our bills but not much more. But that is a more secure option than a volatile investment which might give 10% this year and then lose 15% next year.

Conversely, a younger investor, with a salary and a longer time horizon, may feel it is appropriate to accept that higher level of risk.

Last year ASB gave 5% plus 0.5% bonus I think. I am hopeful (though not confident) of getting 5.5% with no bonus this year. That should then allow the ASM funds to deliver marginally better than last year, probably 4.5% which would have to be considered a good return in the present economic climate.

UK will be rolling out the Pfizer Covid-19 vaccine from next week so that should generate some feelgood factor in the markets.

We should find out soon. I believe the 2019 announcement was made 19th December. I think that almost anything is possible. Covid-19 will obviously have an effect (as it did last year) but the markets have bounced back well, the vaccines are being rolled out and the ASB portfolio is now more diversified into overseas investments.

It's a total guess but I will go with slightly better than last year. Maybe 5.5% with a very small bonus.

Has anyone else got any thoughts?

Announcement on ASB dividend maybe today?

Just heard from a contact at Maybank. Announcement is due 23/12/20 though the news may leak out earlier. I have no idea still what to expect.

Any advance news on ASB dividend, due to be announced tomorrow?

True. But it will be an indicator of what we can expect later in the year for ASB2, ASB3, ASM accounts etc and, as they provide the bulk of my retirement income I do have a fairly pressing interest.

It will be an interesting year for sure. The stock market crashed in March 2020 and subsequently recovered quite well so it is possible (depending on fund manager's performance) that once the crash is removed from the annual performance figures (from April 2021 onwards) that remaining returns for this year may not be as bad as we might be bracing for.

Reason to hope, if nothing else.

Where else would you invest to do better than ASB or ASNB though?

Expectations? Unfortunately, yes.

Hopes? Definitely not.

I was, at least, hopeful of this years figure not being worse than last year's so I was quietly hoping for 5% with no or a small bonus. The base figure of 4.25% concerns me as all other Funds will likely return worse figures this year - though we can hope that is not the case once the March 2020 Stock Market crash is taken out of the calculations.

Whete else can we consistently do better than ASB & ASM though?

I am not sure I would bet on a v shaped recovery but I do think there will be a modest recovery. Vaccine rollout is happening quite quickly on a global basis, airlines are looking to ramp up much of their postponed services to protect their market share and in anticipation of global travel opening up again with proof of vaccination and markets do look to have made a solid recovery.

So, it therefore comes down to the fund managers. Provided they do just a half decent job I think (ok, hope) that next year could see ASB back to 5% or thereabouts plus a bonus and hopefully 6% the following year.

But, for this year, we are planning our finances on 3.5% from ASM accounts. Anything better has to be regarded as a good outcome I think.

ASB2 results next for me at end of March. 4% would have to be considered reasonable. I have written off 2020 and 2021 as poor years but I am hopeful that 2022 will see a modest recovery.

I think you may be correct on both counts. The only grounds for hope that I see are the market crash of Feb/March 2020 will be erased from the next annual figures, the greater exposure to foreign markets has to be a good thing and the vaccine rollout should stimulate travel and help the global economy.

Fingers crossed.

All very true. I thought the worst effects (health and economy) of Covid-19 were over but these new strains are a worry. I think we will not lnow anything with even a degree of certainty for a few more months yet, when hopefully the effectiveness of the vaccines can be confirmed. Only then can the global economy look to rebound.