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 I just bought Tesla..., shares

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SUSAllnGap
post Aug 13 2019, 04:57 PM

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QUOTE(kelvinlym @ Aug 13 2019, 04:53 PM)
Tesla is not on the DAX.
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bad timings. global stock markets gonna plunge 50% very soon.
VIX, volatility is slowing down d
SUSAllnGap
post Aug 13 2019, 05:03 PM

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QUOTE(kelvinlym @ Aug 13 2019, 05:02 PM)
If I can time the market I'll be the richest person in the world. I can't do that. I have enough liquidity and passive income to live. I buy great companies when the market is selling.

If it drops further, I'll buy more.
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if i were you i'll wait like half a year later.

really market is in deep shit, just see when gonna get 50% discount only
SUSAllnGap
post Aug 18 2019, 07:23 AM

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QUOTE(kelvinlym @ Aug 14 2019, 04:51 PM)
It will be exciting to see what will happen. I predict that Tesla will peak at a market cap of about USD800 billion in today's dollars, giving a 20x target price from today.

The more I see what the competition is doing, the more confident I feel that Tesla is going to win. The competition is at least 5 years behind the battery tech and 2-3 years behind the software.

Tesla is like the iOS, and the other car companies are struggling to figure out whether to use Android (Open Pilot) or build their own.
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Don't think they will worth so much in the future

I do believe in the growth potential of the battery technology. If they split it out from company then it has that kind of potential.

Tesla investing in Shanghai so China can take their techs and know how away.
Good luck with that
SUSAllnGap
post Aug 18 2019, 09:12 AM

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QUOTE(kelvinlym @ Aug 18 2019, 09:05 AM)
Yes, I agree with you on that risk. China is not standing still.

I’m banking on the brand value as well. We see western tech being copied or surpassed by Chinese companies but there is still that brand value that somehow can’t easily be copied. See Apple. No competitor has yet to overtake Apple in its ecosystem.
Why? This position is just a small portion of my net worth. If it’s a total loss, I’ll just lick my wounds and move on.
I hope for the best but I expect the worst. Anyway, I’m pretty confident with the bull case. Won’t see gains in the short term but I expect Tesla to reach at least 5x in 5years and 20x in 10 years.

Bear case is 2x in 5 years just owing to the fact that other competitors are ~3 years behind and current sales figures with no further growth.
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i've seen some tech company like Agilent, they develop lots of patents and tech.
so until some time when some tech is worth much much more, eventually that particular division is split off and later that share flew off. so they keep on splitting to make their main shareholders richer and richer

if analyze tesla by segment, they have these techs
1. electric car system (many companies can do that, again too much competition)
2. solarCity (crap rubbish riding on government subsidies/incentives)
3. battery tech (this is gold)
4. autonomous driving (multiple competitions like Googles, again too much competition)

so if tesla were to cut off the GigaPlant out and become sole company, i'd whack hard that share.
i dont think (1), (2) & (4) competitive edge can stay for long time.
about 40-50B mcap it's just a normal automotive car maker market

plus, i do know that Warren Buffet is heavy on battery technology stocks in China

This post has been edited by AllnGap: Aug 18 2019, 09:14 AM
SUSAllnGap
post Aug 18 2019, 09:57 AM

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QUOTE(hjffgjng @ Aug 18 2019, 09:45 AM)
elon open source his stuff

maybe he want china pirate him?
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thats why i say his battery tech is worth so much more.
every car manufacturer follow the electric type, so they need battery supplies, ended up buying from Tesla.

but he did not reveal the battery tech, just the electric motor tech
SUSAllnGap
post Jan 4 2020, 07:44 AM

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QUOTE(submergedx @ Jan 4 2020, 04:46 AM)
https://techcrunch.com/2020/01/03/tesla-sur...ctric-vehicles/

Not on** target
but surpass
congratulation TS
i guess the share price will going north for a while
The first public deliveries of Model 3 sedans produced at its Shanghai factory will begin January 7
you can expected another surge next week
drool.gif
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That's when should get out.
They lined up the good news to pump the stocks.

Will have a hard pullback after good news lose steam
SUSAllnGap
post Jan 4 2020, 10:52 AM

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QUOTE(kelvinlym @ Jan 4 2020, 10:37 AM)
What's your source?

I have tried to time the market and have always got away disappointed. Not gonna do it now. I'm very confident in the stock's and company's performance long term. If there is a pullback, I'll buy in more. It is still less than 10% of my portfolio and I'm comfortable with it. If the holdings go above 10% in value, I'll look to rebalance.
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My source is from my experience observing how rich ppl slaughter sheeps in financial markets.

When a lot of analyst come out with buy signal, rows of great news, that's when the rich offload their stocks that scooped up at low prices.

Analyst coming out with buy signal after 40-50% pump is an exit signal for those winners in financial markets.

That's the usual modus operandi.

This post has been edited by AllnGap: Jan 4 2020, 10:55 AM
SUSAllnGap
post Jan 4 2020, 09:30 PM

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QUOTE(kelvinlym @ Jan 4 2020, 11:12 AM)
Thanks. Can you give examples of companies that have undergone these pump and dump? What are their typical market caps and volumes? What about other fundamentals such as sales and revenue growth etc.

I ask these because usually pump and dump happens in micro to small caps, low liquidity stocks with no fundamentals. It's hard to see this happening in a high volume market such as the US with Tesla.

I don't deny that Tesla is a volatile stock. However, its growth, its desirable products and its dominance in EV is attractive to many.

I value all opinions and will study further to reduce my risk exposure as needed.
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Stocks are not my forte, but tactics are all the same.

What you mentioned might be penny stocks that sort, might have regulation that stipulate must be above certain value, lets say 50cents, so when the stocks drop below that, the owners will pump because they dont want their stocks to be delisted (even on 2nd board)

in those penny stocks, there are hardly buyer/sellers around. so they could push it few folds because it's virtually selling from left to right hand.
Or it might be a more intricate form of money laundering

there are couple of analysis, basically you're buying on fundamental front, long term.
what i mentioned is short term manipulations, maybe couple of months sell high and buy back lower could yield 15-20% more.

to me the sell signal for elites to exit is when those analysts keep on asking ppl to buy, they keep on setting the target higher and higher. those newbies will keep on chasing higher and higher until eventually it collapse due to no volume.
so the stocks ran out of steam, slowly dwindle down, those newbies caught up at the top and lose money.

perhaps a few bad news cycle again, those newbies ended up taking up loss by buying at the top and selling at a loss at a lower range. so the elites move on to the next stocks that have major good news / partnerships / earnings


SUSAllnGap
post Jan 4 2020, 09:41 PM

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QUOTE(kelvinlym @ Jan 4 2020, 09:12 PM)
I don't really know what is happening though, to be honest. It being so shorted also doesn't really make sense. The bears are so convinced that the whole thing is a fraud, but Tesla has been hitting out of the ballpark, again and again, constantly. Sure, there are a few misses but not enough to warrant such an aggressive shorting of the stock. It's as if Tesla is not producing anything tangible.

Just look at TSLAQ stuff and they keep shifting the goalposts. Shanghai GF already pushing out vehicles, Model Y is almost ready, their power products are proven to be sought after by municipalities, their brand is synonymous with EV etc and with ZERO marketing dollars.

I have been watching real close to the bears before I committed in early 2019. In fact, Tesla has been on my radar since 2015 when I first saw a Model S in Germany. I have a slight regret not having committed early but hindsight is 20/20. After seeing Tesla hitting expectations despite the negativity and looking at the product closer when I was in Germany in mid 2018, I decided to commit a bit early 2019. Then mid 2019 when Tesla pulled back to below 200, I told myself, it's now or never. I invested as much as I could at the time and I'm more than happy I did.

I personally feel now that the negativity is unwarranted. With China having an interest in Tesla to succeed, I am more confident than ever that all the fraud claims etc are bullshit.
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it has made a bottom last June about $180, now $440.
near to 140% gains d. previous high around $380

perhaps near to $500 is the golden number to bail ?? tongue.gif tongue.gif
if it makes another high (double top) with less volume then i'd sell everything.
wait for it to go back to $360 range before start buying again

also noticed it likes to make turns around 80s, like $180, $280, $380.
$480 is slightly short of $500 i think should be nice spot to take some profit

This post has been edited by AllnGap: Jan 4 2020, 09:46 PM
SUSAllnGap
post Jan 4 2020, 09:49 PM

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QUOTE(kelvinlym @ Jan 4 2020, 09:47 PM)
Understood. However, I don't have the expertise, tools nor time to be monitoring the signals. I'll be sticking to my fundamental analysis for the time being.

For Tesla though, the analysts are pretty divided. Furthermore, trading volume is high on Tesla, so liquidity risk is minimal.

Thanks for your opinion.
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what i know of from ppl that makes a living from it is when all the analysts asks to buy, thats the time to bail.
sheeps jump in at high price and get slaughtered

if those elites got in around $200 last June, now they have made double, in just a short period of 7months.


This post has been edited by AllnGap: Jan 4 2020, 09:50 PM
SUSAllnGap
post Feb 4 2020, 01:56 PM

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it's in an exponential run. still got ppl wanna buy ?
deserved to get burn if get in now.
SUSAllnGap
post Feb 28 2020, 08:02 AM

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I read some article the pump was due to some short covering. Tesla was a highly shorted stock done by some funds.

I think this will come down hard
1. Pump area around $250 to $1,000
2. Chased all the way up by retailers. Retailers lose money will dump all the way down
3. Tesla ppl already burn those bears and they might offload at the top
4. It went parabolic
5. Marketcap wise still bigger than VW, which means it's overpriced


Since I read some very big funds diversify their main holdings away from oil, if this thing drop back where it started to go crazy I think it will be a good buy.

Always buy after all the retailers are dead.
That means when normal folks on the street not interested in it
SUSAllnGap
post Feb 28 2020, 08:46 AM

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QUOTE(Liamness @ Feb 28 2020, 08:30 AM)
Good analysis but I think there is more that will affect the price these next few weeks.

Coronavirus is a major disruption to the economy. It is coming to the point of gfc 2008 levels..

We are staring at a global financial crisis.

One of the worst hit industries will be the car market and Tesla is in that industry.  They will experience massive drop off in orders and also inability to deliver as parts supplies in China and the world are disrupted..

So Tesla will fail in delivering their vehicles and take a massive financial & reputation hit. Further setbacks will be coming.

Thus, this will allow opportunity for other car makers to catch up and further solidify themselves in this car market segment.

It's going to be bad for Tesla. They could be entirely wiped out from the game.. the edge they have as the market leader is going to evaporate quickly. And their volume of sales does not justify it's existence.
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usually parabolic run in short period of time ridden by retailers are bad to stocks.
it takes some time for those speculative group to burn and recover.

Generally Tesla is a good buy since some bigger funds are diversifying away from oil related industries into renewable energy

Outlook
short term = overpriced, lots of room for correction, whole market gonna collapse in months time due to disruption in economy from corona
long term = good buy at around $300
SUSAllnGap
post Feb 28 2020, 09:56 AM

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QUOTE(thesnake @ Feb 28 2020, 09:44 AM)
preparing 200k to masuk when prices drop to 400 range
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If this is financial crisis another 50% discount.
$300 is the bottom range but not the panic selling range.

SUSAllnGap
post Feb 28 2020, 11:58 AM

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QUOTE(Yggdrasil @ Feb 28 2020, 11:41 AM)
That's market timing.
Here's a true story of someone who sold his stocks in Dec 2018 to buy back at the bottom. However, the market rebounded higher and he missed the boat. He's still sitting on cash. Imagine if it was another 10 years bull market and he's still waiting.
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Don't have to be super smart. Follow Warren buffet.
And Warren been holding cash since 2018.

This market drop 4 days wiped out 5months worth of gains.

Miss your boat still have cash, can wait for next window of opportunity.
Burn your pot of gold, then you're goner forever.

Missed some gains makes you less rich only.
SUSAllnGap
post Feb 28 2020, 12:10 PM

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QUOTE(kelvinlym @ Feb 28 2020, 12:02 PM)
Both sides of the arguments have their merits.

That's why I refrain from giving too much advice.  Each individual must weigh the risks and make their own decisions.

My plan now: Observe the crisis and focus on my income generating activities. If opportunity arises, I'll buy more. Personally, I don't foresee selling my positions because I don't need the cash now.

YMMV
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You are already in 2.5x profit mode.

I'm talking about those that wanna buy in now 😂
SUSAllnGap
post Mar 1 2020, 10:46 PM

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QUOTE(moosset @ Mar 1 2020, 10:30 PM)
meaning the bottom pullback / correction price is $600? only in a recession / financial crisis that it could reach $300?
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I don't know whether possible to reach there or not.

Pretty much if we take a swing range for couple of years chart let's say like AirAsia has a bottom of RM 1, height of about RM 4.20

But in a case of recession, panic selling is very irrational behavior as these are a type of nature fight or flight response. Ppl just sell sell sell because couldn't handle the pain psychologically.

A panic sell would easily break that RM 1 bottom plus those ppl that wanted to own it for long term could have used this tactic by selling it higher then buy back cheaper.
By doing so they could cause price to capitulate. Let's say selling at RM 1 pushing price further down to 70cents. From there they will slowly accumulate back. So they bought back same amount of shares by using 30% less money.

As for Tesla's case it has been chased up by retailers in an exponential manner.
A lot of exponential runs will collapse back to the point where it began to take off (around 300+). Retailers are there for quick profits so when they lose they rather take small losses and get out. Short term traders. After they get burnt they no longer buy it thus the interest to this share slowly dwindles down and those long term holders starts to buy in stages as it goes lower.

But what you must understand is that a panic sell can break whatever bottom that exist under normal situations. As Corona virus came to Western side panic sell scenario will happen very soon

10 years business cycle is that the index will lose half of its peak value, so if this Tesla goes down to $300, don't fire all your bullets. Chances are when panic sell it will get much lower.

Buy when there's blood on the street. For me I would wait for panic sell like Dow coming down breaking below 20,000points before I want to slowly pick up shares.


SUSAllnGap
post Mar 1 2020, 10:52 PM

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Panic sell can break whatever bottom you see.
But it presents the best buying opportunity.
Wait 10years only for this window.....

Don't fire too early

I would wait until Dow at least below 20,000 points to slowly pick up Tesla. Perhaps near to 18k points

From there buy in stages. Average down and leave it for 5years

This post has been edited by AllnGap: Mar 1 2020, 10:54 PM
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post Mar 1 2020, 11:11 PM

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QUOTE(Yggdrasil @ Mar 1 2020, 11:03 PM)
How much you keeping in f.d. to buy?
Also, how many recessions have you been through?
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Not sure yet wanna fire how hard.

When it happened 2008 just came out from college.

I remembered what Warren buffet said.
He said US economy was doomed. Fast forward 2years his speech caused a big capitulation, which formed the lowest point in a 10years period. One final leg down was caused by his speech alone.

Don't even think that after panic sell settled when the price move sideways, no movement the dumping is over. These elites damn cb spread fear on news then scoop the bottom for one last time.

This post has been edited by AllnGap: Mar 1 2020, 11:12 PM
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post Mar 1 2020, 11:26 PM

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QUOTE(Yggdrasil @ Mar 1 2020, 11:19 PM)
I'm still trying my best to buy monthly.
I'm also keeping some f.d. at 1 month maturity so can enter anytime. For f.d., my plan is buy everytime it falls 8.25% because it's difficult to catch the bottom.
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A recession panic sell level is around half of index peak.
This time is Dow peak 29k, so conservatively Dow at 18k can start buying.

Got plenty of time to buy because market will stay dead with low volume for months.
After that Warren came out make that speech it capitulate one more time but that was the last leg without any retest.

After that feds started printing again everything started climbing.

Last time it drop for more than 9 months if not mistaken. I'd put it at 40% discount before starting to fire in stages

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