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 REIT, real estate investment...

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SKY 1809
post Aug 23 2009, 11:51 PM

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QUOTE(Jordy @ Aug 23 2009, 11:39 PM)
SKY,

Without using DDM, assuming the expected DY of 9%, a fair price of 2.41 would translate to DPU of 0.21 (estimated DPU for FY2009 of 0.16 and FY2010 of 0.15~0.17). What I am saying is, the assumptions used to derive the fair price of 2.41 is impractical. When would this fair price be met? Rental reversions will not be significant for at least a few years, so when would the DPU of 0.21 be met?

Based on my DPU estimations with Kenanga's estimated growth rate of 2.8%, it would take a good 9 years to see a DPU of 0.21.
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If basing on DPU alone, then no point for Axreit to acquire more assets.

If let say Axreit started with KLCC, the rest of asset class would fail to be on par with KLCC. DPU would drop.


DPU cannot account for Asset appreciations which are not distributable.

Full Gearing if possible would help DPU also. Let say Axreit borrows 65m or 150m from the bank by not placing shares, DPU can jump , right ? Let assumes property loan is at BLR -2%.

If i think it is very subjective anyway.


No point to argue further.

This post has been edited by SKY 1809: Aug 24 2009, 12:04 AM
SKY 1809
post Aug 24 2009, 12:21 AM

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QUOTE(Jordy @ Aug 24 2009, 12:14 AM)
SKY,

I wouldn't consider this as an argument, but a healthy discussion. Please do not take it seriously smile.gif

I am sure many would agree that we invest into REITs for their dividends, and not capital appreciation. Therefore the most effective measure for REIT prices is DPU. There is no use for assets to appreciate to super-high prices but DPU stays low as asset appreciation is non-distributive (meaning we get nothing even if assets appreciate by 100%). I am using DPU because we know that is what we'll be getting.
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DPU can be simply increased by Gearing lah, even 100m shares are enough oledi. No need to increase to 300m.

Properties can be easily financed by Loans, the cheapest rates in the market, I believe ? 3 to 5% a year.

Why SC or Axreit wants to impose 40% max GEARING ONLY ???? Think about it.

Again, it the RISK FACTOR.

High Return, Higher Risk, NO ?

Later 2 years after, cashflow problems, never hear of such rumours ?

This post has been edited by SKY 1809: Aug 24 2009, 12:29 AM
SKY 1809
post Aug 24 2009, 09:54 AM

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QUOTE(Jordy @ Aug 24 2009, 02:09 AM)
SKY,

I don't know why you're touching on gearing and loans when I was just commenting on Kenanga's report smile.gif

Of course DPU can be increased by increasing the gearing, but what good would that make? We want sustainable high DPU, not a high DPU which is shaky (as you have stated). So the only reasonable way is to go for private funding, but with a price.

As REITs issue more shares, the DPU will continue to dilute. Therefore, to ensure the DPU is maintained, the cash obtained from the issuance must yield equal or higher returns than the current DPU (which is happening in this case). Having said that, I am not against the placement proposed by AXREIT.

The discussion here is based on Kenanga's report, and not how AXREIT is getting the funding. The fair price must correspond with the expected DY, which based on Kenanga's report, is too high (fair price) and too low (DY).

I do hope that my comments do not confuse you smile.gif
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You can set a high expectation of DY as you wish.

You can also expect REITS to out perform Equity fund ( with expected return of 8% long term) generally.

The report goes along with Market consensus and general expectations from other parts of the world.

As a matter, our REITS are very very small as compared to other parts of the world. Cannot even compare to Singapore.

AS the fund size getting bigger like 5 billions, then the DY would drop.

As I say before, you can set your own expectation, no doubt about it.

This post has been edited by SKY 1809: Aug 24 2009, 10:13 AM
SKY 1809
post Aug 24 2009, 01:04 PM

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QUOTE(Jordy @ Aug 24 2009, 10:26 AM)
Well then, it is up to me to trust the report or not as you said way back. Since the purpose of discussion has been defeated, I don't think it is wise to not discuss any further. You do have your own perception, and I have mine. So I think the best thing to do is to respect each others differences nonetheless smile.gif

By the way, good discussion here.
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The whole thing started with your request for some clarifications. I just entertain.

That is all.

This post has been edited by SKY 1809: Aug 24 2009, 01:12 PM
SKY 1809
post Aug 27 2009, 10:47 AM

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QUOTE(asambuffett @ Aug 27 2009, 12:11 AM)
thats below NAV & will dilute the NAV...  sad.gif
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Either way, the major shareholders would benefit first.

First selling their own properties back to the REITS. Then have to chance to buy shares at discounts through private placements ( through someone closed to them ).

Some consider win win for both. Some win big, some win small.

Judge your own.



SKY 1809
post Aug 28 2009, 11:22 AM

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Bursa promise stricter laws on RPT.

In a way good for small investors and FF.


SKY 1809
post Aug 28 2009, 03:10 PM

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QUOTE(Jordy @ Aug 28 2009, 11:56 AM)
SKY,

Would you mind to share the link? I'm interested to know more smile.gif
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Better for you find out yourself.

Read articles some time back and lazy to trace back the archives

Do not want to get into argument this time.

I think GLC or political linked listed companies may lobby for the deferment until some future time.

But stricter RPT rules are demanded by FF if they decide to come to Malaysia.

SC also engaged a top personal ( Chinese ) from auditing firm recently.

This post has been edited by SKY 1809: Aug 28 2009, 03:32 PM
SKY 1809
post Nov 13 2009, 10:49 AM

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Singaporeans had bad and bitter experiences in investing our properties.

Our laws changed soon after they took great pain to invest here.

I remember we had something like that way back to Year 1997 and before. Restrictions imposed bcos they " grapped" a lot of our cheap properties.

And now, RPGT again reappears, the actual tax rate is still very subjective. Nothing is wrong but might go against the original promises made.

That happens often in the Bolehland, for good or for bad.

Form your own judgments.

This post has been edited by SKY 1809: Nov 13 2009, 10:52 AM
SKY 1809
post Nov 13 2009, 11:22 AM

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QUOTE(darkknight81 @ Nov 13 2009, 11:12 AM)
So your recommendation? Go directly to singapore reits instead?
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To be honest, I still prefer Malaysian REITS because they are more towards " cashflow " friendly in approach and do not "tweak " the accounting policies too much.

In actual fact, Singapore REITs might not get the trusted backups from the bankers in term of loans ( i mean cashflows ). Gearing is another issue.

I foresee cash calls from time to time.

You decide what is best for yourself.

I just share a little bit of what i know.

This post has been edited by SKY 1809: Nov 13 2009, 06:38 PM
SKY 1809
post Nov 21 2009, 11:39 AM

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QUOTE(andrewckj @ Nov 21 2009, 11:25 AM)
Why in the first place u kena witholding tax? Witholding tax is a tax withold by resident company/individual to non-resident company/individual upon payment. Its like the resident company is some sorta acting on behalf of the IRB.
So declaring yourself as a resident of Malaysia, by virtue of Section 7(a)/ (b), © or (d), how can the company withould the portion of your salary as tax? You are not subject to any witholding tax, and company has no any right to withold your tax.
You gotta be clear though, whether the deduction againts ur salary is PCB or witholding tax. If PCB( Potongcan Cukai Bulanan), then you will be able to get the refund from IRB. If it is the latter matter, then perhaps you would wan to call up IRB for further details.

Btw, is the company you working with is a NR or R company for malaysia?
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Actually the withholding tax in REIT of 10% is as good as final tax.

The thing I can think of why it is NOT called the final tax in the first place bcos REITs have to distribute at least 90% of realized profit to unit holders, so they themselves ARE tax exempted ( at the company level ).

Failing which, REIT would suffer the normal TAX as the other businesses ( corporation formed in Malaysia ).

Whether REITs could meet the 90% ? distribution, again depending on their cashflows.

They need to plan the cashflow fairly well.

Again , you need STRONG support and backups from the banks, since loans for Working Capital are on 5 years or less short term. ALSO TAKEN FOR GRANTED THERE IS NO PROBLEM HERE.

If everything goes smoothly, then it is SAFELY taken for granted that the final tax is 10% ( also same as withholding tax ).

Sorry to confuse you. ALL.

This post has been edited by SKY 1809: Nov 21 2009, 11:51 AM
SKY 1809
post Nov 21 2009, 12:02 PM

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QUOTE(darkknight81 @ Nov 21 2009, 11:58 AM)
Thanks sky for your explaination.

So in conclusion, reits are being taxed lower compare with corporate.
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REIT ITSELF DOES NOT HAVE TO PAY TAX AT ALL. biggrin.gif

But whatever they pay to you, 10% tax goes to the Government.

Anyway, the more we know , the more we do not know.

Sounds lagi complicated icon_rolleyes.gif

This post has been edited by SKY 1809: Nov 21 2009, 12:16 PM
SKY 1809
post Nov 21 2009, 12:25 PM

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QUOTE(darkknight81 @ Nov 21 2009, 12:21 PM)
Yup agree with you. The more we want to find out the more we know we don know  sweat.gif

Pening kepala  :x
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I bet YTL Power gives you enough headache hmm.gif
SKY 1809
post Nov 21 2009, 01:00 PM

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He is not pening about REITS, but YTL Power.

Perhaps you would help him to solve his YPL Power's problems too.
SKY 1809
post Nov 21 2009, 06:14 PM

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QUOTE(darkknight81 @ Nov 21 2009, 05:48 PM)
Wow then is good what about 9% yield and will be contributing more than 10% in future  thumbup.gif
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It depends on which side of the coin that you are looking at

a) Positively , bcos attractive Rental Yield
b) Negatively , DPU being marginalised

There is a ( consent ) culture here that DPU is the top pick.

That again I would not want to get into any argument again.

But I further want to add one thing from Investing tool point of view.

Supposing a person is having a housing full fexi loan that he has the mean to pay back more.

REITs could be a tool for him to gain more or hedge at the current moment if his loan interest is about 4 to 5% annually.

Instead of pay more to bank, place some money over here.

He may gain a few % more, though not fail proof as the price may sink.

If our economy is likely to get better, then the probability of gaining is high.

Let also assuming there is little Capital Appreciation over here.

I just treat it as an investing tool against others, of lower risk type, not apple to apple.

Judge your own.

This post has been edited by SKY 1809: Nov 23 2009, 06:48 PM
SKY 1809
post Nov 24 2009, 11:36 AM

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QUOTE(mo_meng @ Nov 24 2009, 11:25 AM)
actually if include the div received i think already exceed / earned back my capital liao maybe just need some more for fees
ya jordy, there are still lots of buying opporunity out but nvm ma you still hv axreit rite GOOD
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congratulations go to you and the others. notworthy.gif

This post has been edited by SKY 1809: Nov 24 2009, 12:16 PM
SKY 1809
post Dec 4 2009, 08:29 PM

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QUOTE(andrewckj @ Dec 4 2009, 03:14 PM)
http://www.horizon.my/investor/reits.php
Compilation of all the REITs in Malaysia together with dividend yield, dps, gearing, market cap. properties portfolio and real time info biggrin.gif  biggrin.gif
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Your own Blog ?
SKY 1809
post Dec 7 2009, 01:11 PM

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QUOTE(ooyah98 @ Dec 7 2009, 01:08 PM)
During last tenant crisis, Atirum gave 0.8sens DPU (vs 2.2sen now) for that quarter.
Just take 8x4=3.2sens  Yield =3.2/85 = 3.7%. (annual). So if similar story repeat again, maybe Atrium still can declare better than FD return.
Other plus points,
- Gearing is the lowest among REIT at 20%?
- Mngt not likely to screw up another big time in such short time
- actual DPU fall only for 1 quarter; whereas above assume worst case last for a year.
I really tempted to collect some but price go up recently....still undecided
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One REIT has gearing at 41% , closing to 50% ( max for REITs ) . The excuse is to provide Better Dividends for investors ?

Some more, one of the shopping complexes is located at remote place of Muar.

Quite alarming , though.

This post has been edited by SKY 1809: Dec 7 2009, 02:38 PM
SKY 1809
post Dec 23 2009, 02:41 PM

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QUOTE(whizzer @ Dec 23 2009, 11:50 AM)
Got the below info from one blog, www.horizon.my

"The Heads of Agreement between vendor & purchaser provides for a proposed sale price of RM629 million and RM401 million for Starhill Gallery and Lot 10 respectively to be satisfied by cash and/or Convertible Preference Shares in Starhill Global REIT. The selling prices are pretty near current book value. This is what the Manager says:
The adjusted net book value of the Properties based on the audited financial statements as at 30 June 2009 and after adjusting for the value of 42% or 490 of the existing car park bays in Starhill Gallery to be retained by J.W. Marriott Hotel Kuala Lumpur is RM1,055.5 million. Accordingly, on completion of the Proposed Disposal, Starhill REIT is expected to realise a net loss on disposal of RM25.5 million for the financial year ending 30 June 2010. The original cost of investment of Starhill Gallery and the Lot 10 Property by Starhill REIT was RM480.0 million and RM341.0 million, respectively. Starhill REIT completed the acquisition of the Properties on 16 December 2005 on the listing of Starhill REIT on the Main Board of Bursa Malaysia Securities Berhad. The Proposed Disposal will unlock the value of the Properties as it is expected to realise an estimated distributable income of RM228.9 million for the financial year ending 30 June 2010."

So is it a loss or gain for STAREIT ? 
Also, what properties can be potentially be injected ? I presume its other YTL Hotels. hmm.gif
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Well, the transactions between REITS always involve RPTs.

The general practice is, the buyers would get a certain % discount to the fair market price or the costs, so to make the deals not so RPT, fairness to buyers.

The sellers would get Cash or preference shares on the other hand.

Still Win-win for both, rather on fairness issue.

This post has been edited by SKY 1809: Dec 23 2009, 02:42 PM
SKY 1809
post Dec 31 2009, 10:23 AM

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QUOTE(rayloo @ Dec 31 2009, 10:05 AM)
I have no strong confidence in our retail centre here, you know our consumer habit is the newer the better. Very few shopping malls can stand in the market top notched condition very long, apart from Sungai Wang.

Hektar is good, but in my humble opinion I believe foreigners and KL consuming power is greater, while Hektar's malls are not there. However I do not understand Subang, Muar and Melaka people buying power, so I can't comment Hektar potentiality. But if you are keen in Hektar, you should study the regioanal market before investing.
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I have the same doubt too.

REITS suffered from Related Party Transactions when come to purchasing of assets or buildings, one way or another.

So we cannot assume all REIT managements are equally wise in their decision making.

The bottom line, it is your money that concerns most.

This post has been edited by SKY 1809: Dec 31 2009, 10:25 AM
SKY 1809
post Mar 9 2010, 01:06 PM

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QUOTE(jasonkwk @ Mar 9 2010, 09:28 AM)
how it is going to finance the purchase? right issue?
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Good question.

Private placement is too small for them to get enough fund.

Right issue is quite unusual in M'sia.

Borrowing - I think there is gearing limit imposed by SC.

Perhaps a combination of those.

This post has been edited by SKY 1809: Mar 9 2010, 01:08 PM

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