Hi everyone, StashAway recently held its market outlook for the rest of 2022 virtually. This was moderated by Albert, our deputy country manager in Malaysia, and was led by Stephanie, our Co-Chief Investment Officer. Here are some takeaways from the evening -
What’s happened since the start of 2022 :
1. Bonds and equities have both slumped this year, which is a rare occurrence. This was largely due to a combination of high inflation and aggressive Fed rate hikes.
2. Tech valuations have undergone a huge reset. The Nasdaq Composite Index is now back down to its 20-year average.
3. Fed rate hikes have lifted the USD to its strongest level in 20 years.
Looking ahead :
1. The big question now is whether the Fed can achieve a “soft landing”. That would require two things: easing inflation and a mild economic slowdown.
2. On the former, a stabilisation or easing in commodity prices would suggest a downward trajectory for US headline inflation in the months ahead.
3. On the latter, the labor market and other data suggest the US economy is still showing resilience - suggesting it isn’t quite in a full-blown recession.
4. Even so, leading indicators show that we’re not out of the woods yet. Inflation is stabilising but will likely remain elevated , and growth is still slowing.
Risks we’re watching out for :
1. Increasing geopolitical tensions between the US and China has the potential to roil markets.
2. Skyrocketing energy costs in Europe - due to its heavy reliance on Russia for gas - are damping its economic outlook. It will likely be strained further as winter approaches.
3. Rising US rates and a stronger USD are lifting borrowing costs for emerging markets, putting some at risk of default.
If you would like a more in depth explanation of these points, please feel free to watch the recording of the webinar here -
https://www.stashaway.sg/r/market-outlook-rest-of-2022