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 Clearing stocks before the coming crash, what have I missed out in the analysis?

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Hansel
post Jan 16 2019, 12:12 AM

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QUOTE(Krv23490 @ Jan 14 2019, 03:17 PM)
I am waiting for Q4 earnings starting this week ! If bad earnings by the banks, sure everyone scared again .
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There will be bad earnings report from Wall Street this week,...we know what happened in December last year,... well,.. to me - I hoped the mkt will be scared this week !!!!!!!

Last chance to buy !!!!!
Krv23490
post Jan 16 2019, 12:15 AM

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QUOTE(Hansel @ Jan 16 2019, 12:12 AM)
There will be bad earnings report from Wall Street this week,...we know what happened in December last year,... well,.. to me - I hoped the mkt will be scared this week !!!!!!!

Last chance to buy !!!!!
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Citi and jP Morgan miss earnings but stocks still rocketing up..
icemanfx
post Jan 16 2019, 08:53 AM

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QUOTE(Krv23490 @ Jan 16 2019, 12:15 AM)
Citi and jP Morgan miss earnings but stocks still rocketing up..
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The market is on random walk in the short term.
Hansel
post Jan 16 2019, 09:35 AM

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QUOTE(Krv23490 @ Jan 16 2019, 12:15 AM)
Citi and jP Morgan miss earnings but stocks still rocketing up..
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Looks like the investing world is starting to get smart - not good for people like us !!!!!!!!!!! sad.gif sad.gif mad.gif mad.gif

Edited by adding : Forgot to thank you for updating on the above bank earnings from last night,... please update again on coming earnings this week and the next !

This post has been edited by Hansel: Jan 16 2019, 09:39 AM
Hansel
post Jan 16 2019, 09:43 AM

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QUOTE(icemanfx @ Jan 16 2019, 08:53 AM)
The market is on random walk in the short term.
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Short term, medium term and long term are infinite in the 'truest' sense of the terms. If we are to plan for the 'longest term', thinking that the long term reflects the real values of the mkt, then there is nothing to invest into,...
cherroy
post Jan 16 2019, 09:44 AM

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QUOTE(Hansel @ Jan 16 2019, 09:35 AM)
Looks like the investing world is starting to get smart - not good for people like us !!!!!!!!!!! sad.gif  sad.gif  mad.gif  mad.gif
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At the same times, it may mean, investors overlook the risk, aka complacency.
Having said that, to be fair, US stocks are not that expensive after last year end big decline, provided the economy situation doesn't turn sour too much.

Currently, US market is having mini bull rebounding, after the Dec rout.


Krv23490
post Jan 16 2019, 11:54 AM

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QUOTE(cherroy @ Jan 16 2019, 09:44 AM)
At the same times, it may mean, investors overlook the risk, aka complacency.
Having said that, to be fair, US stocks are not that expensive after last year end big decline, provided the economy situation doesn't turn sour too much.

Currently, US market is having mini bull rebounding, after the Dec rout.
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One of the main difference I read between 2008 and now is , everyone back then had no idea (no fear) that a recession would ever happen .

Today, everyone is so connected and on edge, a small spark can cause everyone to panic and sell, even Citibank CEO said that biggest risk is people talking themselves to the next recession , as opposed to underlying fundamentals.

For example, look what happened at the 'yield inversion' . All this just makes it harder to time the market , should just rebalance based on risk profile .
Havoc Knightmare
post Jan 16 2019, 01:50 PM

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Investors need to distinguish between a recession and a full blown crisis. What global markets are expecting is a recession, as in contracting economic growth. Corporate profits will shrink but business goes on as usual. Central banks and governments will act to stimulate growth by lowering interest rates and spending more, leading to normalisation of growth. Stock markets may dip in line with contracting profits, but nothing major. Several countries like Germany are already at this point, with the economy contracting in Q4 of 2018. If it contracts again this quarter, this qualifies for a recession but markets are not making a big deal over this.

On the other hand, a crisis involves more than just contracting GDP growth. It involves the messy unravelling of the financial system due to loss of faith in the banks and other institutions. This is usually triggered by the bursting of some asset bubbles, and the failing of central banks to act in preventing the domino effect. Everyone just dumps anything except cash and solid bonds. We saw that in the US in 2008 and Asia in 1997. In this scenario a major bear market is likely.

At this point, which is more likely? Are there any significant asset bubbles that will burst? If yes, how will central banks react? Do we expect them to do nothing until banks fail?

So far, stocks are not showing any bubble like valuations. Property prices are high, but central banks are very careful to not cause a collapse. The only bubble that I can think of that has burst is the crypto space, which had little impact on financial systems fortunately.

Since this thread is focused on a crash, what do you guys think will trigger it? Just an open ended question to think.

This post has been edited by Havoc Knightmare: Jan 16 2019, 01:52 PM
foofoosasa
post Jan 16 2019, 03:52 PM

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QUOTE(Havoc Knightmare @ Jan 16 2019, 01:50 PM)
Investors need to distinguish between a recession and a full blown crisis. What global markets are expecting is a recession, as in contracting economic growth. Corporate profits will shrink but business goes on as usual. Central banks and governments will act to stimulate growth by lowering interest rates and spending more, leading to normalisation of growth. Stock markets may dip in line with contracting profits, but nothing major. Several countries like Germany are already at this point, with the economy contracting in Q4 of 2018. If it contracts again this quarter, this qualifies for a recession but markets are not making a big deal over this.

On the other hand, a crisis involves more than just contracting GDP growth. It involves the messy unravelling of the financial system due to loss of faith in the banks and other institutions. This is usually triggered by the bursting of some asset bubbles, and the failing of central banks to act in preventing the domino effect. Everyone just dumps anything except cash and solid bonds. We saw that in the US in 2008 and Asia in 1997. In this scenario a major bear market is likely.

At this point, which is more likely? Are there any significant asset bubbles that will burst? If yes, how will central banks react? Do we expect them to do nothing until banks fail?

So far, stocks are not showing any bubble like valuations. Property prices are high, but central banks are very careful to not cause a collapse. The only bubble that I can think of that has burst is the crypto space, which had little impact on financial systems fortunately.

Since this thread is focused on a crash, what do you guys think will trigger it? Just an open ended question to think.
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Many says China property bubble ( which I heard since 2009 I think ), which will affect the chinese banks etc.

Some says brexit, will trigger something on pound and those european debt crisis . ( I think I heard this since 2010 also ).

some even say japan debt crisis as well ( which mentioned many many years ago also )

Agree with you, the bubble than has been burst recent years only happen in crypto.

I dunno you all, I still bull on global giant tech stocks .

Based on equity market pricing recently, this trade war almost fully absorb in the equity market valuation.

I expect Malaysia equity will continue in bear territory at least another 2 more years. So far no good news I heard at all

most of the analyst estimate earning result of companies like O&G , Construction , Plantation , Casino . Property , etc

not much surprise and going down or flattish in the next few quarter.

Really bottom or not , I guess nobody know. Just slowly add and add lo tongue.gif tongue.gif


[Ancient]-XinG-
post Jan 16 2019, 03:57 PM

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the market really gone haywire.

bad news but indices gone otherwise...
Hansel
post Jan 17 2019, 06:40 PM

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Because US Feds are more careful today !!!
Hansel
post Jan 17 2019, 06:42 PM

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Guys,... the moment the US Shutdown matter is resolved,... really,... no time to buy anymore. My instincts !!!
markedestiny
post Jan 17 2019, 09:25 PM

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QUOTE(Ancient-XinG- @ Jan 16 2019, 03:57 PM)
the market really gone haywire.

bad news but indices gone otherwise...
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This is what they called value trap rally or more bluntly suckers rally. Hopefully not, but let's see

Showtime747
post Jan 17 2019, 10:27 PM

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QUOTE(Hansel @ Jan 17 2019, 06:42 PM)
Guys,... the moment the US Shutdown matter is resolved,... really,... no time to buy anymore. My instincts !!!
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thumbup.gif

All things, although still pending, looks a lot clearer they will be solved soon.

Maybe left with china’s debt. I will stay out of China related counters for now
liangzai84
post Jan 17 2019, 10:49 PM

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Some Hong Kong stocks sink 70% as wave of selling hits

Jiayuan International Group Ltd., Sunshine 100 China Holdings Ltd. and Rentian Technology Holdings Ltd. fell more than 75 percent in a matter of minutes and at least 10 companies were 20 percent lower by the close, wiping out HK$37.4 billion ($4.8 billion) in market value.

[Ancient]-XinG-
post Jan 18 2019, 08:18 AM

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it would be a miracle if the 10 years cycle never happen.

V shape recovery for us eq. wtf does it mean FML. the fed old stop playing around.... driving me nuts!!!!!
Hansel
post Jan 18 2019, 10:09 AM

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QUOTE(Hansel @ Jan 17 2019, 06:40 PM)
Because US Feds are more careful today !!!
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QUOTE(Hansel @ Jan 17 2019, 06:42 PM)
Guys,... the moment the US Shutdown matter is resolved,... really,... no time to buy anymore. My instincts !!!
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Same replies as in the above !!!!!!!
cherroy
post Jan 18 2019, 11:01 AM

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If trade deal concluded, then DJ up another 2000 points and all time high again? bruce.gif
Krv23490
post Jan 18 2019, 05:47 PM

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QUOTE(liangzai84 @ Jan 17 2019, 10:49 PM)
Some Hong Kong stocks sink 70% as wave of selling hits

Jiayuan International Group Ltd., Sunshine 100 China Holdings Ltd. and Rentian Technology Holdings Ltd. fell more than 75 percent in a matter of minutes and at least 10 companies were 20 percent lower by the close, wiping out HK$37.4 billion ($4.8 billion) in market value.
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Same company up 74% today
[Ancient]-XinG-
post Jan 18 2019, 08:42 PM

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QUOTE(Hansel @ Jan 18 2019, 10:09 AM)
Same replies as in the above !!!!!!!
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meaning now is the best time to buy?

the 10 years thing already over?

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