QUOTE(kbr3813 @ Jan 18 2020, 05:39 PM)
What would be your expected expenses per year? The the targeted asset mix would depend a lot on that.
Your asset mix would depend on a lot of factors it would be hard to say unless someone actually
had some details.
Making the assumption that you are asking about at asset mix based on the goal of retiring at 50 with no dependents.
You have to first look at
1. Required future cashflow meaning how much you would need till death
2. Risk
-risk profile (how you react emotionally to changes in the value of your portfolio)
-risk capacity (how much you can afford to lose, this will depend on your future cash flow requirements)
3. Assumptions on
-inflation rate
-rate of return of different asset classes
4. Your life expectancy
5. Whether you are looking at capital depreciation on non-capital depreciation model for retirement
The more accurate detailed way is like 1 inch of stuff to read in the CFP textbook.
So based on the assumption
1. Expected returns
- 8% Equity returns
- 4% Bonds/Fixed Income returns
2. Inflation - 3%
3. Life Expectancy - 90
Note: Not taking into account your risk capacity, risk profile and uneven cashflow requirements (e.g. you might need=nursing care when you're old)
at
60/40 expected return (60 Equity/40 Bonds)
= (0.6*0.08)+(0.4*0.04)
= 6.4%
Inflation adjusted
= (6.4% - 3%) / 1.03
= 3.301%
70/30 expected return
= (0.7*0.08)+(0.3*0.04)
= 6.8%
Inflation adjusted
= (6.8% - 3%) / 1.03
= 3.689%
80/20 expected return
= (0.8*0.08)+(0.2*0.04)
= 7.2%
Inflation adjusted
= (7.2% - 3%) / 1.03
= 4.077
So using the non-capital depreciation model (meaning you never touch your capital) for RM 2M you can spend
per year
60/40 = RM 66,020 (can maintain 12.11 years of equity downfall without selling your equity)
70/30 = RM 73,780 (can maintain 8.13 years of equity downfall without selling your equity)
80/20 = RM 81,540 (can maintain 4.9 years of equity downfall without selling your equity)
So depending on the numbers of years of equity downfall without selling you can take you can
choose the asset mix.
If you are using the capital depreciation model (meaning you use up all your money) assuming you
live till 90 (you have to estimate a bit more since you might live longer)
60/40 = RM 90,785
70/30 = RM 96,418
80/20 = RM 102,208
Note: Calculated using a financial calculator and excel.
It gets a bit too complicated to calculate the years of equity downfall as I would need to create a table for this.
So it all depends on whether you are going to continue working after 50 as if you still have a source of income maybe a 70/30 mix or 80/20 mix, if you don't have a source of income, maybe a 60/40. Hard to say without knowing your financial goals.
You can sort of calculate the asset mix you need backwards based on targeted expenses but that would not
take into account of your actual cashflow needs and risk profile.
The numbers still will change if the assumptions change.
Please take note I didn't double-check my calculations on my spreadsheet and a financial calculator so I might have made some mistakes.
Disclaimer: I am not a licensed financial advisor. The above numbers are only for educational purposes and do not constitute professional advice. I have not taken into account your personal financial situation. Please seek professional advice from a licensed financial advisor if you would like a proper analysis.