Sawit War Benefits The Russians



Malaysia’s undeclared offensive response on European Union (EU)’s ban on palm oil which netizens have referred to as “Sawit War” began in full swing last week after no contract has been signed during the recently concluded Langkawi International Maritime & Aerospace (LIMA) 2019 show for the much awaited procurement of VL MICA surface to air missile system which should be installed on-board six of Royal Malaysian Navy (RMN) Marajalela-class Littoral Combat Ship (LCS).

There has been no announcement made on the fate of VL MICA missile system nor whether the RMN is now looking for alternative system as potential replacement.

LIMA 2019 also saw the thawing of once very cold relationship between Malaysia and Russia as evident in the strong presence of the latter’s defence industry in the event. For most of the time, the aerospace segment of this prestigious regional maritime and aerospace show felt like the event was held in ‘tropical’ Russia with most of the aerial display segment are dominated by Russian-made aircraft.

The Royal Malaysian Air Force (RMAF) has captivated the audience with superbly choreographed and precise aerial manouvers of its combat aircraft which are mostly made up of No 11 Skn’s KNAAPO-built Sukhoi Su-30MKM (NATO Reporting Name: Flanker).

Despite brief but intense spat between Malaysia and Russia on the Flanker’s very low serviceability and availability rate last July 2018, the mediation between Prime Minister, Tun Dr Mahathir Mohamed and Russian President Vladimir Putin in Singapore in November 2018 has actually bears fruit as demonstrated in the handing over ceremony of a fully serviced Flanker during LIMA 2019.

The serviceability and availability rate of the heavily westernised Malaysian Flankers rose from 22% in July 2018 to 33% in August 2018 to 44% in the weeks prior to LIMA 2019. During the opening gambit of LIMA 2019, the availability rate is believed to be at its highest which is about 55% or more than half of the existing fleet of 18 aircraft.

Also gracing the skies over Langkawi during LIMA 2019 were the Su-30SMs from Russian Knights Aerobatic Display team.

There has been much talk on the ground that the Malaysian Sukhois will be further udpated and upgraded through the Service Life Extension Program (SLEP) to be undertaken by Aerospace Technology Services Corp (ATSC), a subsidiary of National Aerospace and Defence Industries (NADI), which has long been the local maintainer of RMAF’s MiG-MAPO built Mikoyan Gurenvich Mig-29N/NUB (NATO Reporting Name: Fulcrum) and the subsequently the Flanker.

The revival of confidence on these two Malaysian operated, Russian-made plane by the could resulted a review on the Multi Role Combat Aircraft (MRCA) program which might see it being cancelled for good as several options are currently being put on the table by the Russians with regard to both the Fulcrums and the Flankers at LIMA 2019. Beside the proposed SLEP on the Malaysian Flankers, other proposals being brought forward were the proposed refurbishment on the Fulcrums in order to quickly bring them back into service; or conduct upgrading works on the 16 Fulcrums up to the Mig-35 “Foxtrot Fulcrum” standard; or trade these Fulcrums for up to 4 new Su-30MKM; or simply sell these Fulcrums to India or Bangladesh.

All of these proposals are doable and is similar to offers made by Boeing and Japan in relation to the Boeing F/A-18E/F Super Hornet and Mitsubishi/McDonnell Douglas F-15J Eagle. Boeing has been, for a very long time, proposing a buy back package in which the company will trade the existing F/A-18D Hornet fleet with up to 12 Super Hornets. Japan on the other hand, is keen on selling its ageing Eagles to its allies in ASEAN through mediation by the United States at a very nominal price.

In comparison, the Russians’ offer is more flexible and attractive while at the same time benefits Malaysia through the provision of barter trade arrangement which could see Malaysian palm oil being used as commodity to trade with Russian fighter jets including the Yakovlev Yak-130 (NATO Reporting Name: Mitten) Advanced Jet Trainer and Light Combat Aircraft which has been offered to the Malaysians.

A fighter variant of the Yak-130 has made an appearance during LIMA 2019 in which it has participated in dynamic display over Langkawi much to the benefit of the RMAF as this has been a good platform for evaluations on the aircraft performance.

The Mitten was a product of now defunct Russo-Italia collaboration that resulted the separate development and marketing of the Yak-130 and the Alenia M-346 Master. Just like the Yak-130, the RMAF has also extended a Request for Information (RfI) on the M-346. Apparently, the Sawit War will definitely affected M-346 chances in the LCA program considering the fact that Italy is part of the EU.

To further adds more smiles on the Russians’ face, the Prime Minister also made a statement that the country is open to proposals from Russian Helicopters to supply Mi-17 helicopters to its military as part of Sikorsky S-61A-4 Nuri retirement plan. Tun Mahathir stated that the Russians have been supplying helicopters to the Fire and Rescue Department (commonly known as the BOMBA) which had served with great distinction since 1998.

The US-made Nuri is currently serving both the RMAF and the Malaysian Army Aviation Force (Pasukan Udara Tentera Darat – PUTD). After reaching 50 years of service, it has become inevitable that the Nuri should be retired from service and replaced.

Partial replacement has been made through the acquisition of 12 Eurocopter EC-725AP (now Airbus Helicopters H225M) Super Cougar Combat Search and Rescue (CSAR) helicopters. The initial plan was to replace the Nuri in stages with these French-made helicopters across the period of 15 to 20 years as some of late models of the Nuri are slated to undergo Nuri Upgrade Program (NUP) which would allow them to serve until 2030.

The ‘green light’ statement made by the Prime Minister who is a well known proponent of Russian made aircraft would open up a huge opportunity to the Russians to regain back its initial loss in Malaysia following the cancellation of 10 UUAP-built Mi-171 helicopters for the PUTD as well as another two Mi-171s for the Royal Malaysian Police (RMP) Air Operation Force (Pasukan Gerakan Udara – PGU) right after LIMA 2003 as well as the exclusion of Russia’s Su-30 and Su-35 in the RMAF MRCA program previously undertaken by the past Government.

Extensive marketing effort has been made by Russian Helicopters early December 2018 by making Malaysia as its final stop in the much covered South Asian Heli Tour to showcase its UUAP-built Mil Mi-172 and KHP-built Kazan Ansat helicopters to military officials from all service branches of the Malaysian Armed Forces (MAF). During the heli tour, Russian Helicopters had came with full support from Russian Aerospace Force (RusAF) who had sent its best liasion officers to the event including those who could speak Malay to ensure that the MAF officers would get the best understanding of the Mi-17s and the Ansat capabilities.

The recent Sawit War clearly benefits non-EU countries including Russia, the United States, Pakistan, China, India, South Korea and perhaps United Kingdom (if indeed Brexit becomes a reality). Above all, Russia is seen as a country that benefits the most while France will be the one which hurts the most as what has been seen and transpired at LIMA 2019. Already the Nutella Tax imposed on Malaysia’s palm oil by the French Government has affected Dassault Rafale chances in the RMAF MRCA program.

Having said that, one wonders whether Russia has been exonerated from its sins for the part it played during the downing of Malaysia Airlines Boeing 777-200ER (r/n:9M-MRD) of Flight MH17 over eastern Ukraine in 2014. The incident was a major event that had brought Russo-Malay bilateral relationship into a downfall.

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Hardly Believe It



SHAH ALAM: Hardly believe it. It appears that the government is warming up to the idea of getting the Hornets soon to be retired by Kuwait. This is the impression I got when told that the proposal to get the Kuwaiti Hornets was being discussed during the various events held to discuss the Defence White Paper (DWP).

Don’t count your chickens though, as it remained part of the discussions and yet to be codified in the document with the funding approved. However, as I was told that during the discussions that funds for new airframes will not be available until 2030, it is likely that going the Kuwaiti way is still the best option for the moment to boost our combat aircraft fleet.

As for the Aussie Hornets, it will be a source of spares only as reported previously.

That said all of this planning will come to nothing if indeed Malaysia is going to have a security and defence cooperation with Iran. From Bernama.

KUALA LUMPUR, April 30 (Bernama) — Malaysia and Iran are taking steps to fine-tune security and defence cooperation involving both countries.

The matter was discussed at a bilateral meeting between Defence Minister Mohamad Sabu and Iran’s Defence and Armed Forces Logistics Minister Brigadier General Amir Hatami.

The meeting took place in conjunction with Mohamad’s working visit to Tehran from April 26 to May 1, according to a statement by the Ministry of Defence today.

He was accompanied by Malaysian Ambassador to Iran Datuk Rustam Yahaya and several senior officials of the ministry and the Malaysian Armed Forces.

— BERNAMA

http://www.malaysiandefence.com/hardly-believe-it/

This post has been edited by PrimeArch: May 3 2019, 06:38 PM